CT Solar - Cost Estimations/etc

MiguelAznar

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I hope Tesla keeps their factory line simple by building solar into every tonneau cover and then charging us for the option at purchase or anytime later via software upgrade (perhaps at a higher price than at purchase). That would also make it easier to stay under a tax rebate ceiling for CT3.
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TyPope

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Imagine justifying this:
Model S
Arachnid wheels... $4,500
red paint..................... $2,500
Total extras…............ $7,000


Arguably, these things only affect their looks. People buy them. I propose Tesla nix the solar panel bed cover and instead, offer the "Photovoltaic Panel Extreme Bed Shading" for $3,500. Then, we can all just say "I want it because it looks cool" instead of having to justify the payback on investment of solar panels. ;)
 

Tinker71

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Yeah...of all of Elon's promises about the CT, the solar tonneau cover is the one I'm most skeptical about. I also fail to see how the cover can generate 15miles/day even in the most ideal conditions.

My guess is that they reduce the spec to 10mi/day (in ideal conditions), and most people will achieve about half of that. That could still add up to 1,000miles of free driving/year, which is great.

For the record I believe Tesla will deliver on most or all of the other promises about the CT.
I coined the term Sun worshiper mode. The CT will move around in the parking lot or big driveway 2-3 times in a 8 hour period to catch the best angle. It would be supper easy to do in a farm driveway. Or as another option you could drive west in the morning, NW around 10, north at around noon etc. and see were it takes you.
 
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myrickma

myrickma

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Many good points. Another calculation to consider that I thought of over the weekend and after someone mentioned rising fuel costs (going from gas to EV)
Just for some ballpark comparison: F-150 4WD w/ V8 (tried to find best comparisons to 4WD CT)
gets about 16 mpg city ( 1 gallon @ $3/gallon ).
Switching from ICE Truck to EV Truck, that's a savings of 1 gallon per day ($3) with the solar.
over $1000 (1095) per year in additional fuel savings.

0.12 is the current kwhr average (6 kwhr per day), $0.72 per day (262.80 per year).
comparing EV to EV, at 5k ( 19.02 years if kwhr stays at 0.12, which it won't)
CT will easily last that long, I've got a 2003 Honda Pilot that's still kicking, and I'm the 3rd owner. First 2 were not easy on it either.
ICE to EV, 4.56 years till paid if 5k.

I think this sets a ceiling on what people will pay and what they will charge now that I look at it.
Tesla will know this, so based on this and previous estimates I'm going 2.5K as the price they'll end up around.
 


Ogre

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I coined the term Sun worshiper mode. The CT will move around in the parking lot or big driveway 2-3 times in a 8 hour period to catch the best angle. It would be supper easy to do in a farm driveway. Or as another option you could drive west in the morning, NW around 10, north at around noon etc. and see were it takes you.
It would be nice if your truck paid attention to parking orientation relative to the sun. Even without solar, having the vault cover backed up to the sun would block a lot of heat coming into the cabin and save battery by avoiding running the AC to keep the cabin under 104 degrees.

Right now, you are lucky if summon mode will even be successful in finding any parking successfully. Multiple moves in a day when you aren’t around? No chance for some time.
 

swengl

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We just put 400W of panels with a battery controller, 3000W inverter, 2 x 100au Gel batteries and all required cabling on our barn for $1,500. Anything more than that would seems super excessive to me. I would probably be willing to pay up to $1,000 for the solar tonneau (and only if it can generate up to 30 miles/day).
 

Ogre

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We just put 400W of panels with a battery controller, 3000W inverter, 2 x 100au Gel batteries and all required cabling on our barn for $1,500. Anything more than that would seems super excessive to me. I would probably be willing to pay up to $1,000 for the solar tonneau (and only if it can generate up to 30 miles/day).
It won’t generate anywhere near 30 miles per day without the “Wings” which I suppose will be deployed maybe from the sail pillars? Even then I doubt you’d get 30 miles except on unicorn days.

If you don’t have a pretty good idea of when the solar would be worthwhile for you, then you probably don’t need it at all. This is not the vehicle you can drive forever without plugging in unless you are averaging less than 5-10 miles per day.



(Who would have ever thought I’d be talking about a truck deploying wings from the sail pillars of a truck? Just sounds like some kind of science fiction novel.)
 

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What if they use the entire rear glass for solar cells including the tonneau cover? That will get us to 1100watts. You will just lose the panoramic roof which I might be fine with.
 

CEB12

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completely agree with the assessment and math. We can’t change/cheat physics and limitation of solar panels, even your estimate I find very optimistic because the cover is not one solid piece of solar panels, it has to be sectioned into small strips as it fold and roll up. Personally it’s an unnecessary challenge for very little gain and certainly won’t be cheap. As long as Tesla gives me a port to plug some panels in I’ll be a happy man.
 


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As for falling short of the size required to produce i remember the solar panels being on the back glass and the cover. However it works out will be progress over no solar.
 

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What if they use the entire rear glass for solar cells including the tonneau cover? That will get us to 1100watts. You will just lose the panoramic roof which I might be fine with.
I wouldn’t want the whole back window occluded, the back seat will feel a bit cavelike with the vault closed then. They could cover a bunch of it though and still keep a lot of that open feeling.
 

Mythrainder

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Solar Cover is one of my favorite options that will be available, and will most definitely get if the price is right. So let's do some math (very rough estimates, get ready!) haha

Musk says cover will gain about 15 miles/day (likely for dual motor)

1.
So how many KWh is 15 miles for the CT which we do not know the battery size yet.
We do know:

Model S Plaid: est .32 kWh/mile curb weight 4766
F150 Lightning: est .46-.50 (call it .48) kwh/mile curb weight: 6500
CT is "mid-sized" so will have a weight of 5000-6500, and superior batteries compared to the F150
so let's say .40 kwh/mile
.40 kwh/mile x 15 miles = 6 kwh/day generated (that's a 120 kwh battery pack, which seems right from estimates I've seen for dual motor)

average usable solar per day nationally is 5-6 hours (say 5.5), that's 1100 watts per hour (size of the array would be 1.1 kwhr)
current tesla panels are $2.01 /watt $2.01 x 1100 = $2211 (An exciting number, but one I believe is quite low)
It's unlikely that the CT solar will be that low $/watt.
Doing a quick estimate on my own house, solar roof is about $3.30/watt so lets use that
$3.30 x 1100 = $3630 (still a reasonable $ IMO, and probably more likely than 2211)
Now, the solar alone from that same estimate is $1.80/watt, $1.80 x 1100 = $1980 (Which would be S3XY)

2.
Here's the issue
Looking at the size of the cover (estimate it 32 sqft, 5.5 ft x 5.8 ft )
solar roof is 6 watts/sqft installed = 192 watts
panel is 18 watt/sqft installed = 576 watts
now these are installed, so looking at the dimensions of the panel via the spec sheet, I estimate you could fit 2 x 425 watt panels into that space (850 watts)
still 250 watts short

These are all estimates and all for fun of course. No doubt Musk will pull it off, I just don't see it being less than 5K.

Take that 5k, buy a 20 foot flatbed trailer, weld some frames for panels install pannels with storage battery and inverter under the pannels. Take the other 1.5k and drive to vegas, play blackjack with 1k and 500 for beer.
 

SpaceDoc

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I see it as a feature that would work well for folks that go to the airport and leave their Cybertruck there for several days or a week. By the time they get back to their truck it will not have lost 20% of the battery by just sitting for one week. Instead it will be topped off and allow for a free round trip.

For someone like me who works from home and does not drive everyday, it is possible I could drive around town for little trips here and there...and never have to plug in. If I am driving less than 100 miles per week, that could be possible in ideal sun conditions. My Cybertruck will be used more for longer adventures and very small (infrequent) in town (Bay Area) trips.

So in terms of options on my Tri-Motor CT, I would pay $5,000 for solar + $10,000 for the camping option + $10,000 for FSD.
Love it.
I currently work at home, but if I had to commute it is about 4 miles one way.

The average US driver goes 25.9 miles per day.
15 miles a day of on-vehicle solar is super helpful.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1007157/us-daily-miles-per-driver/
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