Ogre

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Yeah, 150,000. Oh, but they already have those reservations. I bet if you already have a cybertruck reservation AND put in a F150 reservation today, the cybertruck would be first to be fulfilled.
Given the million plus backlog, the only way I see this happening is if Tesla can scale up over 400k Cybertrucks a year.

I suspect one way or the other Ford is going to be producing 60k–100k per year within 3 years and Tesla will be producing around 250k+ trucks within 2 years. Tesla should be cranking a lot more trucks, but they have the much bigger backlog. They might be able to produce 500k trucks a year, but that would be pretty huge.

I do think the Cybertruck line will eventually be capable of those kind of numbers, but getting there within 2 years would be pretty aggressive (And it might be split between Cybertruck and some other product at that point).
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Ogre

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At some point after Tesla starts production the number of new orders will stabilize and they can determine long term production goals. If they ramp up to half a million a year and demand drops to 100k/ year after they work through the backlog they will have a lot of idle capacity.
 

Ogre

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Well, they'll always have a market for the batteries. So the excess production can just be repurposed.

By owning the battery production they guarantee their ultimate sales.

-Crissa
Indeed, any capacity not used by vehicles can be used for stationary applications.

Though it seems like 100% of 4680 cells are going to be booked for years out. Model Y, Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, then once they have enough capacity to produce those models, they will almost certainly convert their existing vehicles to use 4680s as well.
 

DFW

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This sucks. F 150 Lightning buys due to the wait.
IC Shortage
Actually it is really good IMO.
Why?
It gives Tesla CT design team time to refine its design and to be the best BEV ever built with out IC work around.
Less than 1 year
No IC shortage so no work arounds! Today all cars BEV or ICE have to re design with limited IC.
but
In 6-7 months that IC shortage will be gone and no work arounds. We will get a state of the art fully robust CT.
 

egandalf

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As a reservation holder in the 124k range, I fully support any reservation holders in the 1-123k range declining delivery because of this.

You should be furious! Grrr! I'm furious on your behalf!

*whistle*
 

Efreniere

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This sucks. Wonder how many people will jump to F 150 Lightning due to the wait. I'm sure several.
I'm eyeing the Jeep Wrangler BEV which is supposedly coming. Before getting my Model 3 I was a die-hard Jeep nut. If it's available before the CT I may jump to that.
 

richardlpaul

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Elon says Cybertruck and Semi will be in production end of 2022 and volume production in 2023
While I’m disappointed, I’ll be patient. I would like my CT by late 2023 or mid 2024. But I’m high on the list. Crossing my fingers that they REALLY ramp up production fast!
 

CEB12

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I just don't know how long a man of 80 years can wait. Think I am gonna have to go ICE until my CT comes. I hope all of these extensions bring forth an even better CT at the same price. Patients I have hope I have life to go with it.
 

rjtumble

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Elon says Cybertruck and Semi will be in production end of 2022 and volume production in 2023
On the plus side, I should have my cybertruck account fully funded by then. Until then, it's making pretty good interest.
 
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