RVAC

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Don’t need math. Musk said Cybertruck is the same weight as the competition which is an F150. Find the weight of the heaviest F150 and you have your weight cap.
The caveat is that they were referring to the 250 mile range Cybertruck, albeit not explicitly. So ~5,500lbs for that version, provided they are able to deliver on what they said.

 
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WildhavenMI

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Which one is that?

-Crissa
That's the curb weight for small battery pro. Bigger battery XLT is actually 6,590 and some websites report a Lariat at 6,710. Rivian clocks in at an insane 7,148 lbs. I know it's all hyperbole and guessing games at this point, but regardless of what Elon has said I don't see the CT coming in at less than 6,000 lbs especially a 400 mi battery pack.

I use my Model X (2018 100D) as a proxy on weight/efficiency. It has a drag coef of 0.24 and a curb weight of 5,421 lbs. On a good day at optimal flatness and speed, I get ~325w/mi, or around 3mi/kwh. This is actually slightly better than rated range. If we're being ultra generous (IMO) and assume that the CT will only be 15% less efficient than the Model X and pulls 2.6mi/kwh, a 400 mile pack is a 153kWh pack. And some people above think we're going to see 500 mi+? A 190kWh pack? I don't think that'd even fit the CT form factor.

In reality, the drag coef is likely going to be 2x the Model X, and the weight will likely be a minimum 1k lbs heavier, but we're giving a lot of credit to the CT here.

A 153kWh pack, regardless of weight, is an expensive thing. That's a $20,000 pack. I don't see how they keep prices within $10k of reveal for pack sizes that large. Nor do I honestly believe CT will see an efficiency like this.
 

Ogre

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A 153kWh pack, regardless of weight, is an expensive thing. That's a $20,000 pack. I don't see how they keep prices within $10k of reveal for pack sizes that large. Nor do I honestly believe CT will see an efficiency like this.
Tesla just built a massive battery factory specifically to bring their battery costs down.

On the last earnings call they said their cost savings goals were met. Raw material costs have gone up but raw materials are only about half of the cost of the battery.

You are assuming that their battery cost is flat while it almost certainly has come down significantly in that same time.

Its likely the 500 mile Cybertruck will have a pack in the 190 - 220 kWh ballpark.
 

TheLastStarfighter

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That's the curb weight for small battery pro. Bigger battery XLT is actually 6,590 and some websites report a Lariat at 6,710. Rivian clocks in at an insane 7,148 lbs. I know it's all hyperbole and guessing games at this point, but regardless of what Elon has said I don't see the CT coming in at less than 6,000 lbs especially a 400 mi battery pack.

I use my Model X (2018 100D) as a proxy on weight/efficiency. It has a drag coef of 0.24 and a curb weight of 5,421 lbs. On a good day at optimal flatness and speed, I get ~325w/mi, or around 3mi/kwh. This is actually slightly better than rated range. If we're being ultra generous (IMO) and assume that the CT will only be 15% less efficient than the Model X and pulls 2.6mi/kwh, a 400 mile pack is a 153kWh pack. And some people above think we're going to see 500 mi+? A 190kWh pack? I don't think that'd even fit the CT form factor.

In reality, the drag coef is likely going to be 2x the Model X, and the weight will likely be a minimum 1k lbs heavier, but we're giving a lot of credit to the CT here.

A 153kWh pack, regardless of weight, is an expensive thing. That's a $20,000 pack. I don't see how they keep prices within $10k of reveal for pack sizes that large. Nor do I honestly believe CT will see an efficiency like this.
One of the big car mags.. I think Motortrend?... had a discussion after the CT reveal. An older editor was talking about it, he had talked to the Tesla engineers, etc, and went over things that weren't said by Elon and co. at the reveal. A couple items stood out. One, was that the prototype wasn't real. It was basically a body on frame concoction sorta built on a Model X to look like their CGI plans. They did it in about 2 weeks. The other was that for the 3-motor 500+ mile version they were planning to have a double-stacked battery. Plans may have changed along the way, but if that's still the case they would have no problem fitting in a 100+100=200 kwh battery.
 

charliemagpie

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For Ford etc, a 154 KWh battery is likely $20,000. That works out to about $125 per KWh which seems about right… a year ago, I read somewhere, $135.

We don't know how Tesla will mark up. Will it double-dip ? Manufacturer + retail.

Should they decide to add 30%ish to cost, the retail of supplying 154KW would be around $10,000
 


RMK!

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I didn't read the entire thread but although I enjoyed the relaxed Elon saying anything that came into his mind, I found the guy who had made 50 Cybertruck reservations very disturbing. I thought the requirement was 1 reservation per payment source (eg individual). What, the guy has 50 bank accounts or 50 credit cards?

I think this hyper entrepreneur should try and add a little more value to his business plan. My guess is this is a quick buck scheme that wants to capitalize on a too cheap reservation price relying on the very strong demand. I suppose you can't blame the ass hat for trying, but my hope is Tesla will have put another deposit mechanism in place that will make this type of activity a bit more risky for the quick turn resellers or even potential fleet owners.

Fleet sales should be through an entirely different mechanism and I'm hoping Tesla recognizes this ...
 
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I didn't read the entire thread but although I enjoyed the relaxed Elon saying anything that came into his mind, I found the guy who had made 50 Cybertruck reservations very disturbing. I thought the requirement was 1 reservation per payment source (eg individual). What, the guy has 50 bank accounts or 50 credit cards?

I think this hyper entrepreneur should try and add a little more value to his business plan. My guess is this is a quick buck scheme that wants to capitalize on a too cheap reservation price relying on the very strong demand. I suppose you can't blame the ass hat for trying, but my hope is Tesla will have put another deposit mechanism in place that will make this type of activity a bit more risky for the quick turn resellers or even potential fleet owners.

Fleet sales should be through an entirely different mechanism and I'm hoping Tesla recognizes this ...
Due to high demand, Tesla's "fleet" sale price is the same price you and I would pay. Hertz did not receive any discount for buying in large quantities. Can any other vehicle manufacturer say that (or do any better)?
 

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I found the guy who had made 50 Cybertruck reservations very disturbing. I thought the requirement was 1 reservation per payment source (eg individual). What, the guy has 50 bank accounts or 50 credit cards?
Yeah, there was no limit. But they might not fulfill all those orders.

A bunch of people ordered multiple - either for their business or out of the idea they'd run robotaxi fleet. And others believed they should hedge their bets unlike those this year who suffered am accidents and their car was totaled, leaving them getting back in the queue. Or buying for relatives.

🤷‍♀️

-Crissa
 

RMK!

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Due to high demand, Tesla's "fleet" sale price is the same price you and I would pay. Hertz did not receive any discount for buying in large quantities. Can any other vehicle manufacturer say that (or do any better)?
You might want to re-read the post you quoted. I didn't say anything about price. The post was in regard to the 50 unit reservation guy from Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley. I mentioned a higher deposit fee which would be on final configuration of the reservation as a way to dissuade some of the reservation holders who are looking for multi-unit purchases (primarily for resale or rental?). I think Tesla at some point should have a fleet buying option but that certainly isn't necessary based upon the demand and their ability to manufacturer the over 1M reservations. already in place.
 

cybrtrk_maybe

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Why does the wiper blade have to park in the vertical position? It should be concealed at the bottom of the windshield. Even the airplanes have it designed that way.
Small airplanes, like Cessna 172, doesn't even have a windshield wiper. That big fan in the front pushes the water off pretty quickly.
 


RMK!

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Yeah, there was no limit. But they might not fulfill all those orders.

A bunch of people ordered multiple - either for their business or out of the idea they'd run robotaxi fleet. And others believed they should hedge their bets unlike those this year who suffered am accidents and their car was totaled, leaving them getting back in the queue. Or buying for relatives.

🤷‍♀️

-Crissa
I had read here that they would only accept 1 reservation per payment source. So you're saying that I could make 50 $100 deposits for 50 different reservations? If so, I hope Tesla will look at this closely as with demand so high, getting the trucks into the hands of individual buyers is the best course for rollout. Fleet sales are a good idea to pump up sales volume but that's not their current problem.

Resellers taking advantage of the cheap reservation price would be a disaster for the CyberTruck rollout. The I'll buy 3, sell 2 for a big profit and get mine free is something Tesla should discourage and a sizable deposit increase at final order config would do the job. A $2K deposit on final order would not dissuade any real buyers but would flush the chumps.

Sorry if that bursts the bubble of the shade tree entrepreneurs in the group. :)
 

Crissa

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I had read here that they would only accept 1 reservation per payment source.
Who said that?

Resellers taking advantage of the cheap reservation price would be a disaster for the CyberTruck rollout. The I'll buy 3, sell 2 for a big profit and get mine free is something Tesla should discourage and a sizable deposit increase at final order config would do the job.
That's against the purchase agreement. If you sell one, then you will be banned from buying more Tesla, period.

-Crissa
 

RMK!

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Who said that?

I dunno, it was somewhere is the vast expanse of this very speculative Forum.

That's against the purchase agreement. If you sell one, then you will be banned from buying more Tesla, period.

Banned from buying more Tesla? ... thats a good one ... why not throw a Twitter ban in as well. :LOL:

Like this

-Crissa
 
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intimidator

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Putting out the absolute best truck in the field is of utmost importance. Tesla needs to show continued leadership. They'll pop out more than a few top of the line CTs before dropping back to make the more battery-efficient versions (the ones with lower range). Watch.
They will. Over time.

The issue now is - time -.

If they only get a few CTs rolled out to actual customers at the end of 2023, then 2024 is the 1st real year of production. Maybe 150,000? (assuming they have enough 4680 batteries), and most likely the high end Quads initially.

Then in 2025 they could drop back to making Dual motor versions, along with the Quads.

Can you imagine telling someone in 2019 to put in a reservation for an EV pickup and you will get yours in 2025! People would have thought you were punking them.
 

 
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