CyberTruck competitor Chevy Silverado EV looks pretty good

Ogre · Apr 11, 2022

It’s a bit tough to tell where GM stands right now. Their current shipping numbers are in the dumpster, but they spent the past 6 months shipping batteries to fix the Bolt fire disaster. They are replacing cells for 140,000 cars in about 6 months I think?

Once they get over this, they might be in better shape than it appears now. iIt will be interesting to see their Q2 production numbers which will be their first quarter mostly out of recall.

Crissa · Apr 11, 2022

They're both bolting on wings as fast as they can, or at least, as fast as they think they can. Stellantis, tho, woo boy.

When that cliff comes, which will be able to fly and which won't?

Who can tell? You don't need your wings to work until then.

-Crissa

Ogre · Apr 11, 2022

GM and Ford seem to have figured out that this isn‘t something they can lobby to have changed.

Stellantis seems to think they can lobby to change the laws to “fix” the situation.

Only problem is EVs keep getting better, Tesla isn’t going away, and regardless of how much they lobby more and more people prefer EVs every year.

The current shift in consumer demand is mostly from consumers, not from politicians.

charliemagpie · Apr 11, 2022

Maybe to say they completely fall off the cliff is wrong.

There may be recognisable elements left, like Nokia.

Crissa · Apr 11, 2022

Ogre said:
GM and Ford seem to have figured out that this isn‘t something they can lobby to have changed.

Stellantis seems to think they can lobby to change the laws to “fix” the situation.

Only problem is EVs keep getting better, Tesla isn’t going away, and regardless of how much they lobby more and more people prefer EVs every year.

The current shift in consumer demand is mostly from consumers, not from politicians.

Exactly.

They all predicted they'd have an uncompelling product, and so cheaped out, and mostly made uncompelling products.

But the thing is, EVs actually do a few things better. They do the standard commute better - always a full charge from home, They get up and go better - a big enough motor and battery and it picks up instantly. EVs are now the fastest production cars in the world. They do it without oil, gas, a transmission. So even many of the compliance cars were actually quite compelling.

They also underpriced them... Because many were compliance cars, they never made plans to make them profitable or make more of them.
But Tesla showed them, and now has been able to raise the prices of their cars repeatedly with no drop in demand,

Any automaker could have done this. Aside reliability, the BMW i3 got rabe reviews. Even the Mini was a fun car. The Leaf, even with its battery problem is a stalwart few-miles-oer-dat many-miles-per-year car. It would do 30k a year, 80 a day, without increased maintenance. Anyone who did the math should love them. The Mach-E has sold like hotcakes. The Bolt kept up with the Model 3 even at its lower price point,

And yet... it wasn't until Tesla raised their prices and their sales three years in a row and more and more states and countries put a sundown on ICE cars before those 'someday' plans had to become now plans.

-Crissa

Ogre · Apr 11, 2022

charliemagpie said:
Maybe to say they completely fall off the cliff is wrong.

There may be recognisable elements left, like Nokia.

Lets just say there are rapids ahead. It’s not clear how big the bumps are.

Some of the boaters don’t seem to have oars and at least one forgot their life-vest.

Maybe its just a few rocks.

Ogre · Apr 11, 2022

Crissa said:
Any automaker could have done this. Aside reliability, the BMW i3 got rabe reviews. Even the Mini was a fun car. The Leaf, even with its battery problem is a stalwart few-miles-oer-dat many-miles-per-year car. It would do 30k a year, 80 a day, without increased maintenance. Anyone who did the math should love them. The Mach-E has sold like hotcakes. The Bolt kept up with the Model 3 even at its lower price point,

This was the absolutely bonkers part was 6+ years ago these guys put together some junky cars and the few people who bought them *loved them*.

Yet because of the weird nature of these cars, limited range, and weird looks, the appeal to a broader market just wasn’t there.

Cadillac could have put out the LYRIQ 2 years ago to compete with the Model Y. For some reason rather than go that route they chose to double down on the Bolt branding with perhaps the worst named car of the decade, the Bolt EUV. I guess when “LYRIQ” is your good branding Bolt EUV is to be expected?

GM blazing through a 140k car recall this quickly is somewhat impressive. I may have to rescind my previous comments about their general incompetence. It’s possible they will out-produce Ford and Rivian this year after all.

Crissa · Apr 11, 2022

Ogre said:
Yet because of the weird nature of these cars, limited range, and weird looks, the appeal to a broader market just wasn’t there.

Was it? Because from surveys, the hard part was finding a dealer that would sell it, not a buyer to buy it.

Ogre said:
Cadillac could have put out the LYRIQ 2 years ago to compete with the Model Y. For some reason rather than go that route they chose to double down on the Bolt branding with perhaps the worst named car of the decade, the Bolt EUV. I guess when “LYRIQ” is your good branding Bolt EUV is to be expected?

At no point did GM ramp up production. They made the same number of Bolts from 2017 through 2021. A few thousand over 20k per year. Tesla sold that many Model S in 2013 and every year since has sold two to four times as many of that one Model.

It wasn't until their new battery factory finally last year they seemed to get it. Of course, then that production was eaten by the recall which makes them look so foolish...

-Crissa

Ogre · Apr 11, 2022

Crissa said:
Was it? Because from surveys, the hard part was finding a dealer that would sell it, not a buyer to buy it.

It’s really hard to say exactly what the issue was. Dealers absolutely stonewalled on EVs, but manufacturers absolutely let these cars rot on the vine while Tesla made their cars better every year.

Not hard to find an abundance of reasons why Tesla walked away with things.

Crissa said:
At no point did GM ramp up production. They made the same number of Bolts from 2017 through 2021. A few thousand over 20k per year. Tesla sold that many Model S in 2013 and every year since has sold two to four times as many of that one Model.

It wasn't until their new battery factory finally last year they seemed to get it. Of course, then that production was eaten by the recall which makes them look so foolish...

2020 and 2021 were a huge eye opening for the industry. Teslas numbers were exploding And legislation was ramping up in one region after the next.

What is really surprising is these guys watched Tesla more or less decimate the luxury sedan market. Then move into the compact SUV market (aka the station wagon) taking share with damn near zero effort. It’s just stunning how long these guys sat on the sidelines.

If Tesla hadn’t announced the Cybertruck, I suspect Rivian and maybe one other small player would have the truck market to themselves.

Crissa · Apr 11, 2022

I guess it's like COVID case numbers. Tesla ramps organically, exponentially; not mechanically, linearly.

Look at this year: They're opening two factories the size of the the factories they already operate. That means they're doubling their manufacturing base every four years. But even those factories aren't linear, even Fremont continues to make more per year, every year. 87% increase in deliveries last year. That's nuts. But the market clearly will bear it.

And GigaBerlin and GigaTexas are on plots of land that could build the same factories four times over!

Of course they didn't see it coming, even if it was obvious. When Tesla didn't flatline their Model S production, they should have known. From the fact that battery prices kept going down, they should have known. From the fact that the rest of the EV was already cheaper, they should have known.

It's like the PC explosion all over again. Or the smartphone explosion. The dinosaurs may or may not capitalize. But they usually don't.

I hope this doesn't bode ill for my spouse's metaverse company. This time around, it's the dino. But on the other hand... It's literally the only one to stay in the black in that market.

-Crissa

firsttruck · Apr 11, 2022

Ogre said:
......
Cadillac could have put out the LYRIQ 2 years ago to compete with the Model Y. For some reason rather than go that route they chose to double down on the Bolt branding with perhaps the worst named car of the decade, the Bolt EUV. I guess when “LYRIQ” is your good branding Bolt EUV is to be expected?

Yup, GM had over 25 years (1996 - present) and did very little during all that time.

General Motors Chevrolet S-10 EV
Also called S-10 Electric S-10E S-10EV E10 E14
Production 1997-1998; units: 492
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_S-10_EV

GM EV1
On April 18, 1990,[17] GM chairman Roger Smith announced that the Impact ( EV1 ) would become a production vehicle with a goal of 25,000 vehicles.
Production 1996– 1999; units: 1,117
Leased 1996 - 2003
EV1 was made available to consumers in just two states, Arizona and California, and for lease-only. In the first year after release, GM leased only 288 cars.[33]
However, by 1999, the brand manager for the EV1 program, Ken Stewart, described the response of the car's drivers as "wonderfully-manical loyalty".[34]
The lessees had integrated the EV1 into their lifestyle, making the car less a novelty item and more a primary source of transportation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1

New then struggling Tesla did much more in 5 years ( 2012 Model S to 2017 Model 3) than 100 years of experience GM did in 25 years (1997 - 2022).

GM had plenty of time to produce a Model S or Model 3 competitor much earlier if they were a "REAL LEADER" like before Model S/3.

By end of March 2022, Tesla had produced over 1.5 million full BEVs.

How many has GM made???

Ogre said:
.....
GM blazing through a 140k car recall this quickly is somewhat impressive. I may have to rescind my previous comments about their general incompetence.

I would not be so quick to expect GM has redeemed itself.

The battery form factor used in the Bolt is pouch ( not cylindrical can like Tesla).
BYD's safe Blade battery is also NOT pouch.

The GM Ultium's Flexible, Unique Battery Cells | General Motors
... Ultium's long pouch cells waste less space and can stack on top of each other like pancakes or vertically like slices of toast.
https://www.gm.com/stories/ultium-flexible-battery-cells

These pouch type cells might still be problematic in vehicle application.

Ogre · Apr 11, 2022

firsttruck said:
I would not be so quick to expect GM has redeemed itself.

Oh. I’m in wait and see mode. If they replaced all the packs in 140,000 Bolts, that’s almost 9 GWh in 6 months. They should be able to get volume up to 60k vehicles including quite a few hummers. That’s not Tesla numbers, but kicking Ford’s butt.

A low bar, but my opinion of GM has been pretty low lately.

Catching up to Texas or even Fremont is a long long way off.