Tinker71
Well-known member
- First Name
- Ray
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2020
- Threads
- 85
- Messages
- 1,510
- Reaction score
- 2,007
- Location
- Utah
- Vehicles
- 1976 electric conversion bus
- Occupation
- Project Manager
Elon's vision about changing the paradigm of vehicle ownership is much like his vision for space. In both cases he has great points. The problem is the timing and the politics.So much promise…
Apparently the Cybertruck, that Cybertruck, that Tesla promised with a full set of expectations and Elon’s honey badger “truck it” innovator’s magnum opus are unattainable. No longer are they on Tesla’s web platform nor production either.
Elon couldn’t just stick Cybertruck to FORD. Quad transmogrified Cybertruck into “true” 4x4 ’cuz “truck it”. Truck it to the lowball $99 deposit holders. Truck it to cheap Charlie Single Cybertruck orders who thought they could get a free, as in $60k pickup for $40k. And truck it to Rivian and anybody who thinks 3<4 – this Quad is for you.
Tesla Semi truck identical motors only uses three. That‘s three motors pulling 80000 lbs., so what Quad is doing with four motors is, in the main, outside the Cybertruck design brief, engineering intent and all necessity.
Single, Dual and Tri motor variants of Cybertruck are unobtainable, the silly $99 depositors Elon now snickers at and not even the original specs survive launch hoopla. Quad literally wiped those Cybertrucks off its platform. That Cybertruck gone for now may be gone - for ever.
Not only is auto manufacture hard its proving no amount of money, design, engineering or human ingenuity can crack the economy of scale valley EV’s are trapped between electricity and petroleum.
IF the moonshot Optimus fails to exceed human and solve for scale, OEM automotive in the battery era is dead to mass consumers. Elite(7%) wealth, commercial and shared transportation can only purchase EV’s.
Economy of scale can not be solved at the vehicle level. Mass transit, gig economies and change in society structure transpires. Rural disappears, metro hubs ascend and charge corridors are the new roadmap that dissembles car anywhere freedom. Planning has that potential to change traffic and with charging distribution goes the EV’s. No chargers - no EVs.
Barren EV islands, preserves and wilds without charging will need new designation, definition and purposes other than the energy deserts they circumscribe. Robotaxi put the EV before the robot. FSD is a given no matter. The human cost, won’t matter. Perfect is the enemy of good.
In that new reality, Green maths are different. What matter are gravity wells where Russia, russian resources and its sovereign treasury in resource riches inure to Humanity’s survival.
At what cost…the world has heard in deeds and words how far it must accommodate the fabric of Green Energy if it is to survive. Quad Cybertruck is merely a cast of victims that won’t get a Cybertruck they were promised. Quad is the Cybertruck borne of a Green economy, Green World and the single, dual and tri may never see the future.
In order for personal vehicles to become obsolete FSD has to be level 4-5 amazing. We are still 2 years away before the robo-taxi transformation starts. People want to own a truck in the mean time. Tesla advertised a compelling truck at a compelling price and they will deliver. Mid 2023.
Looking at the projected timing of FSD and the CT, both have slipped. FSD more than the CT. I think Elon may have thought the transformation may have started before the CT reached full production. This would have decreased the demand for CT. Now Tesla will just have to make more.
In 4 years time robotaxi will actually make a dent in personal vehicle ownership. Where will we be on the CT rollout.? Will they ever need to deliver the lowest profit units? IDK.
In the case of colonizing space, either we need to escape, there is profit, or adventure or some combination. I don't think we will be colonizing Mars in the next 40 years. Asteroid mining. Maybe.
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