Cybertruck Production Advances to TOOLING Phase!

[firsttruck]

So... if that's right, it'd be $200M for a 20 mile tunnel? And it would be ready in 20 weeks? If possible, that'd be awesome! If they could do that in, a train mode or something, imagine.
Cars get built and remain onsite under cover until a train is ready for loading. Then, they all FSD themselves down the Tesla tunnel to the Hutto rail yard. Even if some railroad requirement was that they be physically driven onto the train, the Teslas could stage themselves at the mouth of the tunnel and would advance by one every time a railroad worker drives one to the train.
Optimally, they'd just drive themselves onto the train.

Even if they had to be driven by a person from the yard onto the train, it'd be good to be in a weather controlled tunnel with no traffic to worry about. It would probably be safer than loading them onto trucks and then off the trucks...

Rail cars should already be there waiting. Locomotives arrive as needed to assemble rail cars into strings and then take them away.

No human driver. FSD should handle the driving for load/unload. FSD rail car system in vehicle uses data sent wirelessly, camera vision of surroundings, and cameras to read signposts with bar/QR codes to guide routing to the proper rail car.

Train workers or other humans workers (until Teslabot arrives) should only have to secure/tie-down the vehicles.

Also many people do not realize that most or almost all rail cars are NOT owned by the railroad company. Rail cars are owned and manged by separate business entities. Some of this similar to real estate property management companies. Even individuals can buy a rail car or partially invest in rail car and put it out for service through one of the rail car management companies.

Sponsored

 

[Throwcomputer]

Yup, definitely expect to see that. Once Robotaxi level FSD is released except for the recharging stops, direct home delivery should be easy.

A train or truck pulled vehicle carrier might still be involved for the middle part of the journey because of costs, efficiencies, recharging, tire wear, and new owner might not want hundreds or thousands of miles on their new vehicle just from delivery.

If my brand new vehicle I just purchased shows up with 1400 miles on it from driving itself from the factory to my house, I would be pissed and expect a discount on purchasing a used vehicle.

 

[firsttruck]

If my brand new vehicle I just purchased shows up with 1400 miles on it from driving itself from the factory to my house, I would be pissed and expect a discount on purchasing a used vehicle.

Yes, whole 1,400 miles would be a bit much.

Well, then in year 2025+ when doing checkout from Tesla shopping cart be sure to check the box for "Cybertruck robo delivery option, Buy train rail car vehicle carrier ticket"

For some customer delivery locations it might be cheaper for Cybertruck to robo drive itself the last 250 miles to customer home/business than pay truck based vehicle hauler to make 500 mile round trip for 1 vehicle.

 

[Throwcomputer]

T

Yes, whole 1,400 miles would be a bit much.

Well, then when doing checkout from Tesla shopping cart be sure to check the box for "Buy Cybertruck a train ticket"

For some customer delivery locations it might be cheaper for Cybertruck to robo drive itself 250 miles to customer home/business than pay truck based vehicle hauler to make 500 mile round trip for 1 vehicle.

This is extreme self checkout BS company saving money at the expense of the customer.

under 100 miles on a new vehicle is to be expected from testing it and moving it around between factory and dealer lot. 250-500 miles is no longer new, but dealer used with a discount price attached to it. anything over 500 is straight up used with used pricing.

Transporting the vehicle from factory to dealership for customer pickup is included in cost of vehicle. For Tesla, this involves sending the car to local service center for customer pickup, or if Tesla so chooses, train/truck transport to the customers house if cheaper. But in no way is it acceptable to shift those costs to the customer on a new vehicle by way of charging extra, or more importantly, reducing the value of the new vehicle through tacking on uncalled for mileage prior to customer receipt.

The FSD faithful on here are willing to "self check out" with associated reduction in new vehicle value prior to even receiving it, simply for the novelty and pride of telling their friends (who could care less) that their new vehicle drove its own ass to their house.

Jokes on them.

 

[Ogre]

This is extreme self checkout BS company saving money at the expense of the customer.

Since there are only a handful of Tesla dealerships in each state, unless you are in one of the big population centers, you are going to need to drive to pick up your car/ truck regardless.

I had to drive up to Portland to get my Model Y. That means ~200 miles on my Subaru and ~100 miles on my brand new Tesla. I’d have been ok with it driving from Portland to here and having 100 miles on the odo in exchange for not having to drive for ~4 hours to fetch it.

Though certainly not from Texas which would be over 1000 miles.

The other problem comes in when the truck/ car shows up and there is a huge tear in the seat cushion and the left 2 hubcaps fell off in transit. Or if it gets stuck behind a gravel truck on the way here.

Anyhow… I like the idea of self-drive delivery myself, but there are weird issues that I think make it impractical.

 

[RVAC]

I just read the quarterly report and relistened to the entire call. I did not originally hear the last question at 1:02 and I reneg on my comment about the Semi using the 2170 cells (or not using the 4680 cells as you say), so I accept the "goof" moniker for that. On the other hand, in the same question answer Elon said there would be no impact on the use of 4680 cells for the Cybertruck. Your question/comment about the 4680 cell ramp, I assume, is directed at Elon and not to me since I am not the one making them. I am only reiterating what they said during the call and in the quarterly report.

I have listened to Dillon's youtube review on Electrified and I read/review Teslarati and Electrek multiple times a day but often their 'reporting' is opinion rather than fact, or at least a mix. I was surprised when Elon said during the call that they are targeting 50K Semis by the end of 2024. He said that their Semi production ramp would take about a year.

50k run rate by end of 2024 not 50k Semi's produced in 2024.

 

[Crissa]

Maybe they're not making 4680's in Nevada so just use 2170s til the line moves? to Texas??

They're not, and yes, that was always the plan.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

50k run rate by end of 2024 not 50k Semi's produced in 2024.

Either way it is a tough swallow but we will see. That would be 1,000 a week. Given that they use about 1 MwH per Semi that is like 13,000 Model Ys (in batteries) per week. I am sure they can handle 1,000 bodies per week but that is a GwH of batteries per week just for the Semi. With the published production of 250,000 Cybertrucks per year (5,000 per week), at say 150 KwH/Cybertruck, that is another .75 GwH per week. And with a published maximum production of Model Ys at 500,000 per year (10,000 per week), at 75 KwH/Model Y, that is another 0.75 GwH/per week. So all battery sources included they would have to have 2.5 GwH per week to support the Semi, Cybertruck, and Model Y at their published quantities, sometime in 2024. That is 1.25 TwH of battery per year. That is more than Elon said they are targeting and has he met his targets? It's a stretch but we will see.

 

[greggertruck]

Either way it is a tough swallow but we will see. That would be 1,000 a week. Given that they use about 1 MwH per Semi that is like 13,000 Model Ys (in batteries) per week. I am sure they can handle 1,000 bodies per week but that is a GwH of batteries per week just for the Semi. With the published production of 250,000 Cybertrucks per year (5,000 per week), at say 150 KwH/Cybertruck, that is another .75 GwH per week. And with a published maximum production of Model Ys at 500,000 per year (10,000 per week), at 75 KwH/Model Y, that is another 0.75 GwH/per week. So all battery sources included they would have to have 2.5 GwH per week to support the Semi, Cybertruck, and Model Y at their published quantities, sometime in 2024. That is 1.25 TwH of battery per year. That is more than Elon said they are targeting and has he met his targets? It's a stretch but we will see.

Plot twist, 4680 Y's are just a pilot for cells before they axe (if needed) and just use 2170 structural like Berlin til batt 4680 catches up. Cybertruck is most important 4680 cell vehicle seems. But, they'd also said they HAVE to have 4680s in 2021 in order to release it so...

remind me in 6 weeks.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

You want your car to arrive with 1500 miles on it?

Also, they still need to solve charging for FSD.

Given their development of the 'snake' several years ago I would say that self charging is the least of their concerns (although I think that is a long shot rife with challenges). There is no way that any state (let alone all of them between Texas and wherever we are) will allow a Tesla to drive without a person in the timeframe we are talking about. But it is a nice Thursday afternoon fantasy.

Personally I will gladly fly to Austin, pick up my Cybertruck, load up on as much BBQ as the truck will hold, and drive back to the San Francisco bay area...if allowed to. At least that way it is miles of enjoyment put on the truck.

 

[RVAC]

Either way it is a tough swallow but we will see. That would be 1,000 a week. Given that they use about 1 MwH per Semi that is like 13,000 Model Ys (in batteries) per week. I am sure they can handle 1,000 bodies per week but that is a GwH of batteries per week just for the Semi. With the published production of 250,000 Cybertrucks per year (5,000 per week), at say 150 KwH/Cybertruck, that is another .75 GwH per week. And with a published maximum production of Model Ys at 500,000 per year (10,000 per week), at 75 KwH/Model Y, that is another 0.75 GwH/per week. So all battery sources included they would have to have 2.5 GwH per week to support the Semi, Cybertruck, and Model Y at their published quantities, sometime in 2024. That is 1.25 TwH of battery per year. That is more than Elon said they are targeting and has he met his targets? It's a stretch but we will see.

It is optimistic, it takes 1 year to build a factory and 1 year to ramp so they'd have to start right about now to make that deadline. Given there are no signs of that happening at present, and given Elon time, 2025 would be my bet.

As for the required batteries:

Semi 50k units w/850kWh pack (estimate between 300-500mi trims) = 42.5GWh
Cybertruck 250k units w/150kWh pack (estimate between 300-500mi trims) = 37.5GWh
Model 3/Y 500k units w/80kWh pack = 40GWh

Total = 120 GWh

 

[Ogre]

Given their development of the 'snake' several years ago I would say that self charging is the least of their concerns (although I think that is a long shot rife with challenges). There is no way that any state (let alone all of them between Texas and wherever we are) will allow a Tesla to drive without a person in the timeframe we are talking about. But it is a nice Thursday afternoon fantasy.

Personally I will gladly fly to Austin, pick up my Cybertruck, load up on as much BBQ as the truck will hold, and drive back to the San Francisco bay area...if allowed to. At least that way it is miles of enjoyment put on the truck.

Lots of folks would be willing to pick up their truck at the factory, particularly if it would move them up in line a space or 2.

Imagine if one of their solutions to the quarter end push is the last week of the every quarter they have an open house in Texas to clear out inventory so they have no vehicles en-route.

 

[Crissa]

We don't have any positive evidence that the Austin or Berlin Ys with 2170 are using a pack as structural as the 4680 pack.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

We don't have any positive evidence that the Austin or Berlin Ys with 2170 are using a pack as structural as the 4680 pack.

-Crissa

My impression was they have a 2170 pack that has structural elements and is structural at the pack level, but the cells are just dead weight inside the pack similar to the older models. Need a teardown to confirm this.

 

[SparkChaser]

structural pack and structural battery is the difference.
the pack transfers load but in the the pack and battery are both doing that.
The 4680 should have better rigidity and as we saw in the tear down it is filled with structural adhesive making it one big solid block.

Sponsored