Cybertruck Range Prediction + Cell Calculation + More [Sources]

[Crissa]

It also doesn't have to roll...could just open and close like a garage door..travel path like a C. I'm thinking if u roll the cover over itself more chances of things getting caught inside the roll creating a jam...vs a C much smoother and less things over lapping. But who knows ?

That would be a really terrible shape, structurally.

-Crissa

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[swengl]

Another thing to keep in mind when it comes to the structural battery packs: based on what we've seen with the Model Y, the CT will probably be a similar overall design where the seats are bolted directly to the pack and then raised up into the exoskeleton and secured into place. This may restrict the overall footprint of the pack, I wouldn't be surprised to see a double-stack of batteries as a result. I think we are going to be pleasantly surprised by the overall range. Seeing the early mock-ups with 610 miles of range displayed on the screen was no fluke. In order to obtain a respectable range while towing a heavy load (250-300 miles minimum), you are going to use roughly twice the amount of energy to do it. It stands to reason that 500-600 miles of overall range isn't out of the question.

 

[samroy92]

Was it the patent which showed it as rolled ?

Almost forgot

Big flat voids would be structurally unsound. It's bad enough it's going up through the middle of the truck.

True, good point.

I think the cover can be wound and still have room for the pack underneath. I feel very strongly that the structural pack will be the length of the inside wheelbase, casting to casting.

 

[samroy92]

Seeing the early mock-ups with 610 miles of range displayed on the screen was no fluke. In order to obtain a respectable range while towing a heavy load (250-300 miles minimum), you are going to use roughly twice the amount of energy to do it. It stands to reason that 500-600 miles of overall range isn't out of the question.

This may be true but do you really think Tesla is going to burn 2-3x number of 4680 cells than the Model Y when the ramp itself is going poorly. Since 2019 demand exploded for Tesla, strategically it would not be smart to load up the CT will that many cells. We'll have to see, I think double pack is out of the question.

 

[Crissa]

This may be true but do you really think Tesla is going to burn 2-3x number of 4680 cells than the Model Y when the ramp itself is going poorly. Since 2019 demand exploded for Tesla, strategically it would not be smart to load up the CT will that many cells. We'll have to see, I think double pack is out of the question.

Which makes it more likely for me to get mine than the tri motor+ crowd.

-Crissa

 

[swengl]

This may be true but do you really think Tesla is going to burn 2-3x number of 4680 cells than the Model Y when the ramp itself is going poorly. Since 2019 demand exploded for Tesla, strategically it would not be smart to load up the CT will that many cells. We'll have to see, I think double pack is out of the question.

It all depends on the state of 4680 production at the point where the CT is being made. Right now, I agree: it doesn't appear that Tesla can sustain the production rate needed for the Ys, and CTs but they aren't sitting on their hands by any stretch of the imagination. Kato Rd is still ramping up, they are reportedly beginning production of the 4680s in Texas by the end of the quarter, and Panasonic is going to build a US factory for battery production in the next or two. I agree with Crissa, this may force them to start CT delivery with the model that requires the fewest cell and NOT the highest end model (as they have done with the other vehicle models).

 

[swengl]

Which makes it more likely for me to get mine than the tri motor+ crowd.

-Crissa

I hope so, honestly. My reservation is towards the front of the line and I'd rather Tesla get through the production hiccups and design speed bumps with the CT before I get mine. Hell, I've waited this long, what's another 6-8 months

 

[rr6013]

Almost forgot

True, good point.

I think the cover can be wound and still have room for the pack underneath. I feel very strongly that the structural pack will be the length of the inside wheelbase, casting to casting.

Tesla can just uncoil that patented disappearing cover and reverse it. Mirror image reversed at rear execute the 90° bend foward toward the passenger compartment between the tailgate—casting distance. Once engineers overcome that bend in a 5” round mechanism, the cover can be stowed horizontal flat beneath the bed. Residual cover length can park/rest on the roll.
Yes, its more complex, involving additional power at terminal ends rather than patented single motor mechanism. So split the tonneau. Baby partition for pass-thru security and Bed tonneau only driven from rear.

 

[Crissa]

Stowing the cover flat under the bed would make the bed floor inherently weaker and heavier.

-Crissa

 

[Firetruck41]

Tesla can just uncoil that patented disappearing cover and reverse it. Mirror image reversed at rear execute the 90° bend foward toward the passenger compartment between the tailgate—casting distance. Once engineers overcome that bend in a 5” round mechanism, the cover can be stowed horizontal flat beneath the bed. Residual cover length can park/rest on the roll.
Yes, its more complex, involving additional power at terminal ends rather than patented single motor mechanism. So split the tonneau. Baby partition for pass-thru security and Bed tonneau only driven from rear.

Doesn't make sense to me, I'd rather be able to partially close it as it is shown to operate in the patent. When partially open (partially closed if you are a pessimist), it would still substantially protect items under it from the weather, while driving. The way you propose, it seems it would collect rain/snow while driving and funnel it towards whatever was under the partially open cover.

 

[SparkChaser]

Having the partial opening at the tail gait is critical for carrying longer items. Pipes, lumber, and other items need to hang beyond the bed by resting on the tailgate. If it opening is at the top of the vault you can't do this.

 

[samroy92]

TLDR; I think we will realistically see 375-450 miles of range on the Cybertruck depending on 4680 yields in mid-2023. I think pack size will be between 1450-1520 cells, my prediction is a 190S8P (722V) configuration.

Just want to update this thread, based on Generation 2 4680 cells that are starting to be produced at Kato Rd it is rumored to be about 10.5% energy density improvement over Generation 1. That implies a minimum of 110.5wh of energy capacity per cell. For 1450 cells that would equate to a ~160kwh pack. For 1520 cells it would be ~168kwh. More accurate estimates to follow after Munro breakdown of Generation 1 4680 + another limiting factor analysis.

New lower-bound range estimate: 400 - 420mi

 

[TyPope]

In summary:

I feel that Tesla will keep the vault cover within the hinged section that folds down. Think a U shape. I mean, the cover will have to be 6.5 feet long. The height from the front of the cover to the bottom of the pass-thru door would be more than 3.5 feet, enabling the cover to be retained into the folding door beneath the window... Why even have a window back there? If it's anything like the rear window in a model Y, it'll be basically useless.

 

[samroy92]

Why even have a window back there? If it's anything like the rear window in a model Y, it'll be basically useless.

Yeah I see your point. I think i'd still like a window just in case I want to roll up the bed cover and get some cross breeze or extra sunlight on a nice sunny day. But your logic is sound!

 

[samroy92]

TLDR; I think we will realistically see 375-450 miles of range on the Cybertruck depending on 4680 yields in mid-2023. I think pack size will be between 1450-1520 cells, my prediction is a 190S8P (722V) configuration.

Unfortunately in the latest teardown of a brand new 4680 cell from Jordan at The Limiting Factor it showed a total capacity of 86.5 Wh per cell. This is lower than expected. And while I still believe Tesla can easily move chemistry and move that capacity higher it likely won't be substantial enough to break 500mi on a single stack pack.

Some have predicted that the Cybertruck may sport a double stack battery pack - I am still skeptical. All this said I will have to revise my range estimate down to the lower end. 369-420 miles of range.

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