Cybertruck Range Prediction + Cell Calculation + More [Sources]

[Jhodgesatmb]

I read [some of] the original post and all of the responses up to now and I guess I am missing the point to some extent. I watch 'The Limiting Factor' and 'Cleanerwatt' regularly to keep the technology in my mind, but at the end of the day what I care about is range, charging time, and longevity, and not about the cell chemistry or construction of the pack. As long as Tesla meets or beats its original claim for the tri-motor (i.e., 500+ miles per charge) range, I will be happy, and all of these musings are amusing but otherwise I do not really care.

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[CyberGus]

All this said I will have to revise my range estimate down to the lower end. 369-420 miles of range.

Engineer: "Great news, we've increased the Cybertruck range to 430 miles!"
Elon, on phone: "WompWompWomp"
Engineer: "Ummm, sure, we can reduce the range by 10 miles. But why?"

 

[samroy92]

I read [some of] the original post and all of the responses up to now and I guess I am missing the point to some extent. I watch 'The Limiting Factor' and 'Cleanerwatt' regularly to keep the technology in my mind, but at the end of the day what I care about is range, charging time, and longevity, and not about the cell chemistry or construction of the pack. As long as Tesla meets or beats its original claim for the tri-motor (i.e., 500+ miles per charge) range, I will be happy, and all of these musings are amusing but otherwise I do not really care.

Fair - what I am trying to accomplish is pulling in all known facts and data related to 4680 yields+production as well as structural packs to show whether or not its even -possible- for Cybertruck to have 500mi of range out of the gate. I am the biggest TSLA bull in the world but I just don't see it being 500mi in 2023. The goal of this thread is to back up my claims. Would absolutely LOVE to be wrong here.

From a practical business perspective it also doesn't make sense for Tesla to burn through extra cells on the range of CT to achieve 500mi. It only made sense if the density improvements were made, and unfortunately, we aren't there yet.

I have no doubt we will see a 500 range CT at some point in the future just not anytime soon.

 

[TyPope]

How many cells would it take to make a 177.5 KwH battery pack? This is another $1M question.

at 9000 mAh @3.6V nominal, each cell produces 96-99 Wh. There are 828 of these in the MY.
96 Wh x 828 = 79.49 KwH battery pack size.

Using that information and assuming an efficiency of 355 wH per mile or, if you prefer, 0.355 KwH per mile, we can calculate how many cells the CT will need to travel 500 miles.

500 miles x 0.355 KwH/mi = 177.5 KwH battery pack size.

To go 500 miles, as figured above, the CT needs a 177.5 KwH battery pack.

177.5 KwH / 96 Wh = 1,849 cells.
Is that reasonable?

Model Y pack is roughly 70" x 46". How much bigger will the CT pack be? Will they double-stack it? I think they will, but I haven't heard.

None of this is confirmed recently. Most is extrapolated from data given at Tesla's battery day event way back when.

IF we assume that battery research has been ongoing at Tesla and is NOT tied to vehicle production (why would it?), we can also assume that the timeline is not affected by the CT delays.

Improved energy density is expected to offer higher energy and those improvements will come fast:
That means that the same battery pack of 1,849 cells would give out:
1. 108 Wh per cell in 2023 which makes the above CT battery pack have 199.62 KwH which could equate to 562 miles of range.
2. 118 Wh per cell in 2024 which makes the above CT battery pack have 218.18 KwH which could equate to 614 miles of range. At THIS point, I would guarantee Tesla makes sure to squeak out just 8 more miles of range to hit 622 miles of range. That's 1,000 Kilometers!

I used future improvements from Troy Teslike:

Troy Teslike noted in February 2022 that there is a rumor that the first-generation of Tesla's cell is 98 Wh. In the following years, an improved energy density is expected to offer higher energy: 108 Wh (up 10%) in 2023 and 118 Wh (up 9.3% from 108 Wh) in 2024.

The 4680-type cell already stores over 5-times more energy than the physically smaller 2170-type cell.

Considering the rumored total energy content, the energy density would be:

• 1st gen: 276 Wh/kg
• 2nd gen: 305 Wh/kg
• 3rd gen: 333 Wh/kg

 

[SpaceYooper]

Who wore argued it better?

Hi everyone, I have been wanting to put these predictions together for a while and now we finally have some concrete data. We do still have to make some assumptions on the Cybertruck itself as well as what 4680 yields will be in a year so this will be a range. TLDR at bottom.

Lets start with what we know.

The standard range model Y has 34/35 cells in a row (literally counting them from the Munro video above), 6 cells in a group, 4 groups in a structural pack.

828 cells at around 95 Wh per cell = ~78kwh for the texas made model Y. From insideEVs: "4, 23S9P modules making a 92S9P pack".

3.8V per cell (per UCSD teardown). 92 in series = 350V, 9 of those in parallel for the 78kwh.

46mm diameter cell is approx == 64 inches long on a chain of 35 cells. Or around 5 1/3 feet.

--------------------------
STANDARD RANGE Model Y battery pack

4 groups
3 bandoliers per group
34/35 arrangement cells per band

23S9P * 4

23S9P == 34*3 + 35*3 = 102 + 105 = 207 == 20.7kwh per group

828 total cells

35 x 4680 cells in the longest string. 46mm diameter ~ 1.811 inches.

model Y wheelbase == 113"
cell string length = 63.5"
string length ratio to wheelbase == 56%

--------------------------

Warning: Big assumptions ahead

Assumptions

1. Current 4680 cell yields ~100Wh at 3.8V
2. Cybertruck will have a single layer pack (not double stacked)
3. Cybertruck is wider than Model Y
4. Cybertruck has a wheel base of 145-149"
5. Cybertruck efficiency is 400wh/mi

The case of 350-500V Cybertruck

LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~437V

5 cell groups
3 bandoliers per group (pair of cell strings)

23S15P = 345cells per group, 115 cells per band

115S15P total pack == 1725 cells

57/58 per band

345 x 5 = 1725cells == ~172kwh per pack = 430mi/range

CT estimated wheelbase = 149"
Ford lightning wheelbase = 145"
cell string length = 105"
string length ratio to wheelbase = 70.4%

This pack length seems too long to fit the dimensions of the Cybertruck, therefore seems unlikely we could see a pack with more than 1600 cells.

--------------------------

LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~376V (More realistic)

3 groups
5 bands per group

33S15P = 495 cells per group * 3 = 1485 cells == 375V pack == 149kwh == 375mi/range

49/50 bandollier == 99 per band

cell string length = 90.5"
string length ratio to wheelbase = ~60%

This pack length seems way more realistic in the 400V range

15 pairs or bandolliers vs 12 on the model Y standard range
49/50 length bands instead of 35/34 on the model Y standard range

The case of 800-900V Cybertruck

LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~722V

5 groups
3 bands per group
47,48 == 95 cells per band

38S8P groups x 5

190S8P = 1520 cells = 152 kwh == 722V == 375mi/range

48 cells * 1.811" = 87" string length == 58% ratio


--------------------------
LONG RANGE CYBERTRUCK ~850V

5 groups
3 bands per group
53,52 length = 105 cells per band

45S7P * 5 = 225S7P == 1575 cells == 158kwh == 855V == 395mi/range

53 cells * 1.811" = 96" == 64% ratio (starting to get unrealistic again)

When visualizing these packs think of this:

With an extra group. And longer.


Cell Yields are improving.

Right now the most accurate capacity estimate of the 4680 yields and cell material. If we conservatively feel that when Cybertruck production starts we are achieving 110-120wh per cell. Our realistic range estimate becomes:

1485 Cells @100wh/cell:

~149kwh * 2.5mi/kwh = 375mi/range

1485 Cells @120wh/cell:

~177kwh * 2.5mi/kwh = 442mi/range

1520 Cells @120wh/cell with the 190S8P 722V pack (my prediction):

~181kwh * 2.5mi/kwh = ~450mi/range


TLDR; I think we will realistically see 375-450 miles of range 325-400 miles of range on the Cybertruck depending on 4680 yields in mid-2023. I think pack size will be between 1450-1520 cells, my prediction is a 190S8P (722V) configuration.

Edit: I am revising my range estimates down due to empirical evidence of UCSD teardown of 4680 cell. I think it is likely that yields on Cybertruck 4680 will be in the 90-100Wh per cell range. This puts pack capacity at 130.5kWh - 152kWh or 326mi-380mi

OR...

We all have seen the patent UI mock-ups - 610 miles of range! Shocking, surprising? Even unbelievable? Just a random number in a mockup? How does the CT get there in a package that weighs the same (or less) than a Ford ICE F-150 and cost $70k (or less)?

Elon had stated in the reveal that they didn't "cheat" with the Cybertruck - they stayed within the dimensions and weight of the F-150 which weighs 5700 lbs max. (8) If you take the F-150 body and frame as a reference, it weighs 5150 lbs (current F-150 weight + 700 lbs for steel and subtracting 1250 lbs of powertrain weight).(1) Elon has stated that the CT will be a stressed-skin design and use a three-piece casting process for the frame with a structural battery pack using the new 4680 cells. Switching a body and frame to a unibody build results in a typical weight savings of 25%.(2) I think we can expect a similar weight reduction for the stressed-skin design, which would bring the body/frame weight down to 3863 lbs. If we subtract that from the max weight allowed for the truck (5700 lbs) we get 1837 lbs left for batteries and drivetrain. Subtracting 70 lbs for the drivetrain leaves 1767 lbs for batteries.(3)

Unfortunately Tesla has not released weight info on the 4680 cell, but it has been estimated that 1416 2170 cells occupying a volume of 1.1*10^8 mm3 and weighing 1060 lbs can be replaced by 960 4680 cells with a similar volume of 1.28*10^8 mm3 and estimated to weigh as much as 40% less.(5) This is for the Model Y and the CT will be a wider and longer vehicle. So if we increase the battery volume by 100% we would end up with 1,920 4680 cells and still potentially be under 1767 lbs. The estimated kWh would go to 200 kWh. A 100 kWh in the Model X 100D provides a range of 325 miles with 2170 batteries.(6) Increasing the kWh to 200 (while still keeping the car weight the same 5700 lbs) could increase the range to 570 miles (200 kWh / 351 Wh per mile). Using 200 kWh of more efficient 4680 cells in a vehicle the same weight should increase the range by 16% or to 660 miles. (7)

The problem here seems not to be weight but the increased size of the battery. Can a battery volume of 2.56*10^8 mm3 be fit into the middle structural component of the CT? That volume would translate into dimensions that would be, for example, 60" L x 52" W x 5" H. It seems like that could be incorporated into the center casting of the CT but I can't say for sure.

The other problem seems like it would be the cost to produce as that is a lot of 4680 batteries. However, Elon and Sandy Munro have stated that switching to 4680 batteries can reduce production cost by 50% per kWh.(7) Sandy has also stated that switching to a three-piece casting process could cut production costs by 1/3.(9)

**UPDATE** I need to make a correction - in using the Model X as a surrogate for the CT I forgot to factor in the efficiency penalty that the CT would have over the Model X due to the difference in cd values. The Model X has a cd of .24 and the CT should have a cd of .30 (per Elon’s tweet). I don’t have a source, but as best as I can glean from different examples (10) this would equate to about a 15% penalty in efficiency. (This would not be the percentage difference between the two values but the measured effect.) So with a 200 kWh battery, all other things being the same, the range would be calculated as 495 miles (200 kWh / 404 Wh per mile) and with the 16% efficiency gain from the 4680 cells the calculated range would end up at 575 miles.

My math or interpretation of my source data could be wildly off here, so I am open to valid critical review. (No, I am not an engineer, but personal attacks based on my vocation I don’t believe are relevant. In fact, in these forums it would be appreciated if we just leave personal attacks and insults off the table.)

Sources:

(1) https://www.torquenews.com/106/ford-breaks-down-2015-f150-weight-savings
(2) https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42452-019-0733-8
(3) https://chargedevs.com/newswire/elo...io-is-the-challenge-with-ac-induction-motors/
(4) https://enrg.io/tesla-battery-weight-overview-all-models/#:~:text=Model X – 1200 Pounds*
(5) https://techtricity.substack.com/p/the-4680-cell
(6) https://insideevs.com/news/355282/2019-tesla-model-x-epa-ratings-compared/
(7) https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-cell-pack-breakdown-video/
(8) The Cybertruck has been registered as Class 2b (8501-10,000 lbs GVWR). This means the max weight of the truck has to be 10,000 minus it's max payload, which for the CT is 3500 lbs. So the Cybertruck cannot weigh more than 6500 lbs empty. https://electrek.co/2019/12/13/tesla-cybertruck-medium-duty-vehicle-carb/
(9)
(10) https://aia.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s42774-020-00054-7/tables/2

Both make valid arguments. I'll take the one that gives us the most range baby!

 

[samroy92]

Using that information and assuming an efficiency of 355 wH per mile or, if you prefer, 0.355 KwH per mile, we can calculate how many cells the CT will need to travel 500 miles.

Yeah we differ a little bit on this, I am trying to me more conservative and say CT will achieve 2.5 miles per kWh or ~400wh/mi. But I hope its much lower

177.5 KwH / 96 Wh = 1,849 cells.

Yes exactly, here is where we hit a crossroads. You can't fit that many 4680 cells in a single pack - in my opinion. It would have to be double stacked which I believe is highly unlikely at this point. Even if you could fit that many cells in a pack there seems to be little chance that Tesla would be willing to part with 3x Model Y's worth of 4680 cells for 1 CT.

All of my thoughts are just that - thoughts and guesses to be honest.

Improved energy density is expected to offer higher energy and those improvements will come fast:
That means that the same battery pack of 1,849 cells would give out:
1. 108 Wh per cell in 2023 which makes the above CT battery pack have 199.62 KwH which could equate to 562 miles of range.
2. 118 Wh per cell in 2024 which makes the above CT battery pack have 218.18 KwH which could equate to 614 miles of range. At THIS point, I would guarantee Tesla makes sure to squeak out just 8 more miles of range to hit 622 miles of range. That's 1,000 Kilometers!

Agree with you in principal but disagree on the premise that we are going to be starting at 1,849 cells. My whole estimate changing towards the low side was the recent data release by The Limiting Factor showing that the Wh is not 96Wh, it's actually closer to 86Wh - and that's before even accounting for usable vs not-usable! With increase in yields and different chemistry we -could- see 4680 cell in 2023 for the Cybertruck achieve 90-100Wh but it just seems low probability

 

[samroy92]

Who wore argued it better?

Ha, I don't know. But I want to point out I have no argument based on weight and cost. My argument is solely based on volumetric + geometric density and 4680 yields. With some assumptions sprinkled in there about CT efficiency and cell chemistry sand bagging.

 

[charliemagpie]

This battery may not be the same as the one going into the CT.

 

[samroy92]

Troy Teslike noted in February 2022 that there is a rumor that the first-generation of Tesla's cell is 98 Wh. In the following years, an improved energy density is expected to offer higher energy: 108 Wh (up 10%) in 2023 and 118 Wh (up 9.3% from 108 Wh) in 2024.

This is obsolete w/ the UCSD teardown from the limiting factor showing that first generation is 86Wh per cell. Agree that this yield will improve over time. Also the cell chemistry makes a big difference too!

Usable on the new 4680 cell is more like 81.5Wh. So 177.5kWh pack / 0.0815kWh per cell = 2177 cells. That is a prohibitive amount in my humble opinion!

 

[samroy92]

This battery may not be the same as the one going into the CT.

This is true, I want to leave room for not only yield improvements but also a higher nickel chemistry as outlined at battery day:

I still think we are working with a maximum of ~1500 cells per CT pack (1450-1520 is my prediction). Working backwards in order to achieve 500mi of range with 1520 cells at a driving efficiency of 400wh/mi:

- 500mi * 400wh/mi = 200kWh
- 200kWh / 1520 cells = 131.5Wh per cell

To go from 81.5Wh usable on current 4680 cells to 131.5Wh usable on future 4680 CT cells would imply an increase of 61%!! I don't think we see those gains in the next 1 year but I am so ready to be wrong so I can enjoy an awesome Cybertruck.

 

[Crissa]

This is obsolete w/ the UCSD teardown from the limiting factor showing that first generation is 86Wh per cell. Agree that this yield will improve over time. Also the cell chemistry makes a big difference too!

Usable on the new 4680 cell is more like 81.5Wh. So 177.5kWh pack / 0.0815kWh per cell = 2177 cells. That is a prohibitive amount in my humble opinion!

It's not obsolete, since the teardown proved there was no silicon in the cell. Hence, none of the chemistry improvements in other cells. That gives it alot more room to grow.

Also, it was a sample of one, that wasn't used in a vehicle. We have no idea if it was typical.

-Crissa

 

[samroy92]

It's not obsolete, since the teardown proved there was no silicon in the cell. Hence, none of the chemistry improvements in other cells. That gives it alot more room to grow.

The Limiting Factor adjusted for silicon in Anode, he estimated 5-10% bump in energy density. That puts it at 90Wh - 94Wh. Usable is even lower 85-90Wh. That is still under. Even with major improvements in 2023 (which I think will happen) we are still unlikely to see anything close to 131Wh per cell usable.

This is still assuming 400wh/mi! Might be more efficient (lets hope)

 

[samroy92]

@Crissa this is all to say that originally we had thought 4680 yields would be better, its ramping slower than expected, its all good. I am just trying to adjust for a realistic range given all those factors. Just decreased my range estimate due to more accurate energy density facts w/ UCSD study of first-gen 4680 cell.

 

[TyPope]

This is obsolete w/ the UCSD teardown from the limiting factor showing that first generation is 86Wh per cell. Agree that this yield will improve over time. Also the cell chemistry makes a big difference too!

Usable on the new 4680 cell is more like 81.5Wh. So 177.5kWh pack / 0.0815kWh per cell = 2177 cells. That is a prohibitive amount in my humble opinion!

I literally just saw Dillon Loomis report on the UCSD data. Yeah, 2177 would be a lot.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah we differ a little bit on this, I am trying to me more conservative and say CT will achieve 2.5 miles per kWh or ~400wh/mi. But I hope its much lower

Model X is a really solid base for Cybertruck efficiency. I find it unlikely CT will be more efficient than the Model X which is 321 Wh/ mile.

I suspect Cybertruck will fall somewhere between that number an your 400 Wh/ mile. Likely much closer to your number than the Model X efficiency.

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