Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[newwave1331]

Not seeing the material relevance

If for example, a period of 5 successive weeks, they both (A) register 20 future VINs wrt a period 4 weeks in the future, and (B) separately happen to be producing 20 units that week, then this parity of future VIN# and present build rate is basically happenstance

on the 6th week, they could register 60VINs for a period still 4 weeks in the future, but for next 3 weeks still only be producing 20 trucks a week

Remember also, conversely, we presently have a large backlog of registered VINs. So they could have been producing only 20 trucks a week up until this week, when they’ve step-changed to now 30 trucks a day, catching up # builds to #VINs. Then tomorrow they could register 2000 more VINs.


regardless, I’d be confident there are a number of trucks being stored inside (or at least a designated area capable of storing large numbers inside)

Yes. Not trying to imply that one photo means production rates are at ~25/day. They could just be doing a garage clean out.

I agree we would need multiple weeks to so a correlation.

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[cvalue13]

Hey @newwave1331 and @Jhodgesatmb

through the doc link saw you can search and find CT vins for recall info

https://service.tesla.com/vin-recall-search

On this front I don’t understand the stuff y’all do, so though I’d share in case it adds a better channel for VIN lookup

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Hey @newwave1331 and @Jhodgesatmb

through the doc link saw you can search and find CT vins for recall info

https://service.tesla.com/vin-recall-search

On this front I don’t understand the stuff y’all do, so though I’d share in case it adds a better channel for VIN lookup

It cannot be called from code as all the content one sees in the web interface doesn’t get returned in the function call. My code is all working great but the API calls are holding me up.

I looked all over the place and even read all of Tesla's javascript and this is definitely not code that I can invoke programmatically. I tried all of the endpoints that they seem to have, but none of them work. They all just end up displaying the same thing on the browser page. Very frustrating. Just to be clear, this is what I am trying to do at the browser:

https://service.tesla.com/vin-recall-search?VIN=7G2CEHEE2RA000012

Internally this calls:

https://service.tesla.com/VinRecall?VIN=7G2CEHEE2RA000012

that is what the service looks like, though the root of the endpoint (i.e., https://service.tesla.com/) might be different. They have somehow masked the root. Even if they showed it it is very likely that it is credentialed (that is what I would do) and of course I do not have those credentials. I bet that people that sign up as service providers have different APIs they can use than us 'normal' people.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yes. Now that I have a method to cover a wide range of vins each day, I am logging the date found. Before the last couple of days, I was just finding them by playing battleship. Now I know what day a new vin appears.

This is showing the running total of foundation VINs by each day. I'll stop sharing the actual VINs now that I have proven I can successfully find them. As we get farer along, I'll move to a weekly consolidation. Any ideas of how to track them getting into customer's hands or confirmation of completion?

This graph is nice. The only thing I would change is to say that the numbers are all totals, not day totals (implied). So the 136, 138, 168, and 193 are not totals that should be added but cumulative, meaning that on 12/13 25 Cybertrucks were made, 25 AWDs and no BEASTs).

 

[scottf200]

Yes. Now that I have a method to cover a wide range of vins each day, I am logging the date found. Before the last couple of days, I was just finding them by playing battleship. Now I know what day a new vin appears.

This is showing the running total of foundation VINs by each day. I'll stop sharing the actual VINs now that I have proven I can successfully find them. As we get farer along, I'll move to a weekly consolidation. Any ideas of how to track them getting into customer's hands or confirmation of completion?

This graph is nice. The only thing I would change is to say that the numbers are all totals, not day totals (implied). So the 136, 138, 168, and 193 are not totals that should be added but cumulative, meaning that on 12/13 25 Cybertrucks were made, 25 AWDs and no BEASTs).

Maybe just add the light blue columns for clarity. At least to me that makes it crystal clear.

A couple sample in C8 [ =FORUMUALTEXT(C4) ]
and B9 [ =FORUMUALTEXT(B5) ].

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Maybe just add the light blue columns for clarity. At least to me that makes it crystal clear.

A couple sample in C8 [ =FORUMUALTEXT(C4) ]
and B9 [ =FORUMUALTEXT(B5) ].

That works. I didn't want to make any assumptions on how best to make it clear.

 

[newwave1331]

@Jhodgesatmb @scottf200

I wasnt going to include the daily new count because its too early for that information to be useful. The fields I track are VINs and date found. Eventually I will be moving to a weekly average while still collecting the daily data. As far as we know, the vins are done in blocks so daily information detail can be misleading when trying to correlate to production rates.

The feedback is welcome on how to present the data. Im using pivot tables so formatting the information differently is only a couple clicks.

 

[cvalue13]

@Jhodgesatmb @scottf200

I wasnt going to include the daily new count because its too early for that information to be useful. The fields I track are VINs and date found. Eventually I will be moving to a weekly average while still collecting the daily data. As far as we know, the vins are done in blocks so daily information detail can be misleading when trying to correlate to production rates.

The feedback is welcome on how to present the data. Im using pivot tables so formatting the information differently is only a couple clicks.

is it useful to somehow tag or elsewhere summarize “known” blocks out of “circulation” if you will?

I’m thinking for example the 20 showroom units - but maybe that’s all that fit in this bucket, RCs and MCs not being reflected in the chart

Great stuff y’all

 

[scottf200]

@Jhodgesatmb @scottf200

I wasnt going to include the daily new count because its too early for that information to be useful. The fields I track are VINs and date found. Eventually I will be moving to a weekly average while still collecting the daily data. As far as we know, the vins are done in blocks so daily information detail can be misleading when trying to correlate to production rates.

The feedback is welcome on how to present the data. Im using pivot tables so formatting the information differently is only a couple clicks.

Nice job. It makes perfect sense that you'd go weekly.

Do what you want formating-wise I just like to show examples because it is faster and easier to 'explain'. My only suggestion to the above would be to put the totals right next to the column that make up the total. For me, when I look left to right I can easily see/understand the summation quickly. Whatever you like.

 

[newwave1331]

is it useful to somehow tag or elsewhere summarize “known” blocks out of “circulation” if you will?

I’m thinking for example the 20 showroom units - but maybe that’s all that fit in this bucket, RCs and MCs not being reflected in the chart

Great stuff y’all

Yes it would help if I explained what VINs/build types this does and does not include. After reviewing the list, I missed a few by trying to increase my cycles on my program.

I actually have 208 (187 AWD and 21 Beast). Those numbers do not include the MCs (601-706) or showroom vehicles (1200-1219).

VINs are 0-20 (beast), 51-70 (AWD), 99 (AWD), 421-585 (AWD), and 911 (beast).

 

[cvalue13]

I actually have 208 (187 AWD and 21 Beast).

9-1 build blend so far - incoming somplaints from cyberbeast orders watching AWDs flying in 3…2…1…

 

[Love2Cyber]

9-1 build blend so far - incoming somplaints from cyberbeast orders watching AWDs flying in 3…2…1…

Yep. This is a product of some learnings re: the pricing relative to range and other trade-offs. Looks like a whiff on the beast...and likely an overshoot on demand for the AWD. I don't see combined CTs selling more than 100k / year run rate. Boutique truck.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

is it useful to somehow tag or elsewhere summarize “known” blocks out of “circulation” if you will?

I’m thinking for example the 20 showroom units - but maybe that’s all that fit in this bucket, RCs and MCs not being reflected in the chart

Great stuff y’all

The only vins of interest at this point are production vins.

 

[cvalue13]

Yep. This is a product of some learnings re: the pricing relative to range and other trade-offs. Looks like a whiff on the beast...and likely an overshoot on demand for the AWD. I don't see combined CTs selling more than 100k / year run rate. Boutique truck.

well, at least for now they’re not making so few beasts bc of low demand.

It’s bc it’s all they can build, due to driveline parts constraints (upside is it doesn’t hurt the halo of exclusivity around the truck)

demand-wise, check the orders thread for a rough proxy: 46 beasts to 61 AWD

What I was saying is that, given the build blend, the people ordering beasts will have a long wait.

so at the moment, they’ll be delivering 9 AWD for every 1 beast

Applying that to the order chart here, it means that all 61 AWD will be built and delivered before just 6 beasts will be built/delivered

or put another way, in the time those 46 beasts are built/delivered, they’ll have built/delivered 414 AWD trucks


at some point, the beast parts constraint will relax and I’d expect they play catch-up on beasts

that could be weeks, or months

but I expect more like months. And that this is why the Foundation order emails say deliveries for AWDF are between December and March, while deliveries for CBF are “in 2024”

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