Crissa

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Remember, even if they get to 2-3k by the end of the year, they're going to have spent alot of time below that. Way below.

-Crissa
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Ogre

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Remember, even if they get to 2-3k by the end of the year, they're going to have spent alot of time below that. Way below.

-Crissa
Yep.

10k by year end means averaging 1,000/ week for most of the 4th quarter.

They are planning on a delivery event at the end of Q3 (roughly September) and customer deliveries usually start a month after that. So If deliveries start middle - end of October that’s likely production at around 300-500 trucks/ week at that point.

It took Tesla 11 months to get Model Y production up to 3,000/ week and Musk said Cybertruck is likely to ramp slower.

Temper expectations!
 

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All I can say is that for the Model 3, they delivered a few vehicles in summer 2017 to board members, VIPs, etc. and I received mine in December 2017 as VIN number 1927. I believe the Model 3 was an easier vehicle to build as compared to the many-newfangled-material/tech things that the Cybertruck will bring to the table (that will make the manufacturing process a bit more difficult). So my official guess of 2023 production numbers is about 1000 Cybertrucks delivered by the end of 2023...
 

Crissa

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All I can say is that for the Model 3, they delivered a few vehicles in summer 2017 to board members, VIPs, etc. and I received mine in December 2017 as VIN number 1927. I believe the Model 3 was an easier vehicle to build as compared to the many-newfangled-material/tech things that the Cybertruck will bring to the table (that will make the manufacturing process a bit more difficult). So my official guess of 2023 production numbers is about 1000 Cybertrucks delivered by the end of 2023...
The Model 3 was not so easy to build. The Cybertruck should be way easier, but they're doing alot of new things with it that no one has practiced yet. The Model 3 ramp will probably be the most like the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
 

anionic1

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I think 3k/ week by year end is possible, but unlikely.

Musk said this week that the ramp will be **slower** than other vehicles. That really tempered my expectations. If it is indeed a slower ramp, my 10k in 2023 estimate is too high.

I really hope Musk is sandbagging on a lot of this. We just have a couple more months before the big reveal and they are going to fly by.
Its really interesting to see how tesla controls its vehicle flow with pricing. I mean look at the S and X. Does it really make sense that the S is double the cost of a Y. No. its not double the car. its trim is a little nicer and it has features here and there that are nicer. But not double the car. So why? Obviously the $90k price tag limits a lot of people from purchasing it. If the S were $65k they would probably sell 250k more every year. So why don't they ramp up production like they are on the Y and drop the price to sell more. I think the answer is simple. The model 3 and Y are more popular vehicle types and if they can make as many as they can possibly sell at a happy profit margin why focus your resources on anything else. I think they keep the X and Y around at low volume to simply have a more robust offering and to capture the "luxury" market buyers willing to pay more. All that to say that Elon would be making an incredible mistake by not targeting the CT to the middle class and workers. If the CT lands in their luxury side such as the Ford Raptor that is really going to suck and it will show Elon to be much less of a visionary in my opinion. 5 of the top 10 vehicles sold last year were trucks AND all 5 beat the Model Y in sales volume. That's 5 trucks that each sold more volume than the Model Y in the US.

I get mixed impressions from Elon regarding his stance on the CT sales but if Tesla doesn't buckle down and take the CT pricing seriously they are going to get run over by the competition. I don't believe them when they say "we will make as many as people can afford". When the demand for that type of vehicle is in the multi millions there is no demand issue. It will entirely be them setting the pricing and driving sales based on that number. And again, if they look at this as a Ford Raptor competitor that will be very frustrating and a waste of a lot of years of waiting
 


anionic1

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The Model 3 was not so easy to build. The Cybertruck should be way easier, but they're doing alot of new things with it that no one has practiced yet. The Model 3 ramp will probably be the most like the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
Elon literally just said its very difficult to build. "The Cybertruck is a hard car to make because it's such a radically new design you can't just use conventional methods of manufacturing," he said. "We had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton-based car instead of an endoskeleton-based car. It's extremely non-trivial to build the Cybertruck."
 

Crissa

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Elon literally just said its very difficult to build. "The Cybertruck is a hard car to make because it's such a radically new design you can't just use conventional methods of manufacturing," he said. "We had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton-based car instead of an endoskeleton-based car. It's extremely non-trivial to build the Cybertruck."
Yes.

When asked about the factory and delays.

He didn't say this about assembling each Cybertruck. Nor did he say it would be expensive to assemble. He specifically said it would not be like the Model X in assembly and tuning difficulties.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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Its really interesting to see how tesla controls its vehicle flow with pricing. I mean look at the S and X. Does it really make sense that the S is double the cost of a Y. If the S were $65k they would probably sell 250k more every year. So why don't they ramp up production like they are on the Y and drop the price to sell more.
That would cost a lot of time and effort which they can use for scaling up the Cybertruck, their Gen 3 products, improving their Model 3 (Highland), and similar efforts. They are prioritizing the highest volume products.

All that to say that Elon would be making an incredible mistake by not targeting the CT to the middle class and workers. If the CT lands in their luxury side such as the Ford Raptor that is really going to suck and it will show Elon to be much less of a visionary in my opinion.
Look at the original pricing on the Cybertruck.

Neither Musk, nor anyone at Tesla have suggested their vision for the Cybertruck has wavered from that original vision. People talk about it being crazy expensive, but look at the interior of the truck. It is plain to the point of being severe. That’s never changed.

Tesla is making the truck they featured on launch night. Which is an electric truck priced for truck buyers.
 

anionic1

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Elon literally just said its very difficult to build. "The Cybertruck is a hard car to make because it's such a radically new design you can't just use conventional methods of manufacturing," he said. "We had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton-based car instead of an endoskeleton-based car. It's extremely non-trivial to build the Cybertruck."
It almost sounded to me like he was saying, you know we found out that putting thick stainless steel panels on the outside of the vehicle really isn't the best or most efficient way to build a vehicle and as such we are going to limit pr
Yes.

When asked about the factory and delays.

He didn't say this about assembling each Cybertruck. Nor did he say it would be expensive to assemble. He specifically said it would not be like the Model X in assembly and tuning difficulties.

-Crissa
Actually, I went back and watched the video again and it was not associated with any questions. But arguably he was mostly talking about building the production line. He did not clarify if they expect the production line to be faster once it is constructed due to the methods of fabrication.
 

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It almost sounded to me like he was saying, you know we found out that putting thick stainless steel panels on the outside of the vehicle really isn't the best or most efficient way to build a vehicle and as such we are going to limit pr

Actually, I went back and watched the video again and it was not associated with any questions. But arguably he was mostly talking about building the production line. He did not clarify if they expect the production line to be faster once it is constructed due to the methods of fabrication.
He said initial production target is 250,000 and they would adjust based on demand.

That is roughly the capacity of 2 Giga presses producing front and rear castings; not-coincidentally what they have on premise at the moment. The production is neither faster not slower than what they’ve ever indicated.
 


swengl

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40,000 order numbers, which is where I get mine. Just wondering if I should book a flight for this Christmas to pick it up.
I'm not too far behind you. If I get mine by April 2024 I will consider myself fortunate.
 

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Mark my words. We will be lucky to see 2k Cybertruck's manufactured in 2023. Similar to Rivian a lot of production will be going to employees and suppliers.
 

LDRHAWKE

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Personally I would like to see 30 or 40 k manufactured before I get mine with it containing so many technology advances in materials, structure, manufacturing, braking, steering, suspension, etc…..

on the other hand I don’t have much choice…😊
 

JBee

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Well I'm in San Deigo atm so I've already come to terms with only getting my CT next year on our next USA trip. :p

We started in Chicago three weeks ago in a RV, has been fun. We done 4400miles and tomorrow we're flying back to Texas for a few weeks.
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