anionic1

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If you are 40k in line and say 60% of the early orders don't complete which puts u about 16,000 in line yeah u might get urs.
Before people get all huffy saying 60% is too high please remember it's been about 5 years. People die, they get married, they have a kid, that kid grows up and goes to college. Interest rates go up, stock market goes down, they get laid off from Twitter.
There is a world of difference between putting $100 down and then waiting 5 years and then actually purchasing $60,000 vehicle.
I think a lot of folks in 2020-2022 were thinking to pull some of those stock gains out and buy the CT. for many those gains are no longer.
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Coolbreeze704

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🤣 Thanks for doing my homework for me. I was just about to start searching for the top two ugliest cars.
Wife will just use the "2 wrongs don't make a right"

Actually 8 wrongs above.
 

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Yeah, my wife is also not fond of the look. I am one of those who planned to use my stock gains to purchase my CT. So, now I am hoping for enough of a delay for the stock to recover, lol!
Also, since the configurations have changed, everyone will need to go in and change their order, especially if you had a single motor variant. I understand the price will go up, but I q, really hoping they honor the FSD price that was on my order, that will make up for a decent price increase.
 

ecotrials

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I like it. It's conservative, but I'd point out the last day of summer is Sept 22nd. So production may not start until later in your chart. Also, I am not sure what the timeline is from production to delivery, but I am hopeful that deliveries look something like this.

DeliveriesRunning Total
The week of
3-Sep​
50​
50​
The week of
10-Sep​
200​
250​
The week of
17-Sep​
350​
600​
The week of
24-Sep​
500​
1100​
The week of
1-Oct​
650​
1750​
The week of
8-Oct​
800​
2550​
The week of
15-Oct​
950​
3500​
The week of
22-Oct​
1100​
4600​
The week of
29-Oct​
1250​
5850​
The week of
5-Nov​
1400​
7250​
The week of
12-Nov​
1550​
8800​
The week of
19-Nov​
1700​
10500​
The week of
26-Nov​
1850​
12350​
The week of
3-Dec​
2000​
14350​
The week of
10-Dec​
2150​
16500​
The week of
17-Dec​
2300​
18800​
The week of
24-Dec​
2450​
21250​
The day of
31-Dec​
350​
21600​

For what it's worth, I'm about 90k overall and I think 20k-ish for a CT3 w/FSD. Some people will cancel or delay their purchase, so I'm hoping for a finalization email this summer or fall at a price I'm willing to pay including insurance. But we also have no idea how the rollout priority is going to work. I'm guessing Colorado will be fairly early though.
I just had a HORRIBLE thought. I am slightly afraid that someone at Tesla will read this and say "what a great idea". I hope not, but.....
What if they opt for most money to start with? And by extension go for FSD orders at max price, so those with $15K FSD move to the front of the line, leaving once thought of lucky suckers ($7K FSD, like me) hanging in the lurch.
Please, NOOOOOO!
 


John K

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Those with late reservations should hang tight. It all depends on the newly revised MSRP's that aren't released yet.

If they are within $10k of the originally announced MSRP's I think most buyers will follow through with a purchase. Greater than $25k and I see substantial cancellations.
Those with pre 175,000 reservation number should beat the cancellation rush and cancel now
 

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All I know is the biggest test of my ADHD therapy plan by far…. Haha…. Get me the damn think already! Haha
 

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Those with late reservations should hang tight. It all depends on the newly revised MSRP's that aren't released yet.

If they are within $10k of the originally announced MSRP's I think most buyers will follow through with a purchase. Greater than $25k and I see substantial cancellations.
Cybertruck is the most anticipated Tesla, even more so than the Model 3.

I seriously doubt that Tesla will underprice it initially, because it takes time to ramp up volume.

First year, I expect prices to hover around the $80K range, similar to that of Lighnting Lariat, but with better range, performance, charging, etc.

As production ramps up, I expect prices to gradually decline with more models (dual motor) being introduced.

Elon himself said that the first models will be Quad motor (Plaid?) so prices will be high for those which makes sense.
 

Cybertruckee

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Cybertruck Besta have been spotted in Palo Alto.

It appears that Tesla is still doing their previous practices where they do a template of their automated production process (lots of software work and programming) in Fremont and have these units tested by employees. Then will eventually replicate the mass production line in Giga Texas.
 
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Mini2nut

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3k a week?

We will be lucky to see 2k units by year end. Dialing in a brand new vehicle production line with brand new employees takes months.
 

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as i understand it..giga shanghai started production in December of 2019.. in March of 2020 <4 months later> they hit 3k vehicles per week.

Soooo assuming a delivery event end of third quarter.. and assuming they have to START production before that to HAVE a delivery event means they would be Starting production in September... 4 months later if they accelerate at the same pace they could hit 3k vehicles in January...

Based on that 2k per week seems not only feasible but probable.

The entire question comes down to how well they can scale the unboxed process they are developing ..

IOW can they get five different assembled modules to all hit the final assembly station at close to the same time without backing up? If they CAN do this... and they think they can it will just be complicated to do.. than they may well scale up faster than giga Shanghai did!
 

anionic1

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as i understand it..giga shanghai started production in December of 2019.. in March of 2020 <4 months later> they hit 3k vehicles per week.

Soooo assuming a delivery event end of third quarter.. and assuming they have to START production before that to HAVE a delivery event means they would be Starting production in September... 4 months later if they accelerate at the same pace they could hit 3k vehicles in January...

Based on that 2k per week seems not only feasible but probable.

The entire question comes down to how well they can scale the unboxed process they are developing ..

IOW can they get five different assembled modules to all hit the final assembly station at close to the same time without backing up? If they CAN do this... and they think they can it will just be complicated to do.. than they may well scale up faster than giga Shanghai did!
They hit a different pace in China.
 

Ogre

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I would not be surprised if, by the fall, they are rolling out 3000+ cybertrucks - per week.
I think 3k/ week by year end is possible, but unlikely.

Musk said this week that the ramp will be **slower** than other vehicles. That really tempered my expectations. If it is indeed a slower ramp, my 10k in 2023 estimate is too high.

I really hope Musk is sandbagging on a lot of this. We just have a couple more months before the big reveal and they are going to fly by.
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