Elon Musk replies to a Tweet about Pricing on the Cybertruck

[Clustertruck]

• I don't think I would continue to pin my hopes on a 49k CT to that at this point.
  
  
• Musk and his crew knew several years ago that Rivian and other competitors were going in too low.
  
  
• His current comments portray that. It being difficult for Tesla = impossibility for others.
  
  
• we still see very little in apparent forward progress on the CT, we're about done with the first Quarter here and they want to start producing/delivering by the Fourth?
  
  
• Even with all the R&D and tech they have stollen from from within and without.
  
  
• Fair warning: No Marxist rants

A $49K or cheaper CT could well happen as a light commercial variant some time 2025 or so. Tesla will see Ford filling large fleet orders to unfussy buyers, taking higher margins and incurring lower costs. Musk will want Cybertrucks dressed in Police livery. Musk will want to play his Tony Stark fantasy and build military vehicles (and robots.) A CT with a "small" battery is still a huge battery for household backup power. There are several lucrative markets where Tesla will want a dirt cheap CT.

I don't think Musk thought Rivian was going in low. Ford is going much lower. I think Musk knew back then "I'm not building the Clustertruck till 2025, I can spoil these competitors by announcing with a low price for a variant I won't be building till long after 2025."

Musk's "negative gross margin" show his true character – he's disgusting. He waxes philosophic on making the world a better place, then attempts to sabotage an EV startup. A real bastard.

As I understand it, the CT is delayed into 2023 with no detail on starting, just that they're building as many Model Ys as possible and the Cybertruck/Roadster are not planned. At the time, $TSLA lost value because the market was disappointed to see Tesla not ready to build vehicles of the million plus pre-orders. The prospects of the CT have improved greatly, but it's still far off.

The Munro teardown of the S Plaid and their examination of the Cybertruck suggests there are no engineering or technology impediments to building the CT "today" – it's just a matter of capacity constraints and revenue priorities putting the Y ahead of the CT.

I don't know where Marxism or Bernie-ism come into this thread – I've not read it all. What can really be said about a product that doesn't exist and a company that changes pricing several times per year? Tesla is a pretty bloody terrible employer, actively suppressing worker's rights, and that ain't changin' any time soon.

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[rr6013]

So “relative” is not in-play. This is Elon’s cyber brainchild. The last constraint EM wants is anti-trust showing up because Cybertruck was priced relative to FORD, GM, Rivian and the fact none are actually in production either; that’s begging investigation.

Tesla mission is greenhouse gases, CO2 and global warming. First principles: Tesla busts its own values if it produces a vehicle nobody can afford, can’t use or costs too much to operate - bottomline. Twelve percent of the world populated in developed economies(read rich) produce 50% of greenhouse gases. That’s US, CAN, EU, JAP and that’s not counting China. Tesla builds $200k USD QuadCT-Plaid only 2% can afford, Tesla isn’t on-mission. A QuadCT priced $130k only 4% can afford isn’t making a dent neither. TriCT at $70k that 7% will buy is missing the other 5% of the population that would buy a BEV if they could. DualCT at $60k trim hits the 9% wealthy enough. SglCT priced at $40k hits all 12% of the population living in wealthy economies able to carry a loan for a vehicle at that price.

Elon needs focused on blowing Cybertruck out the back GigaFactory door F.O.B. Austin on price point he extrapolated at launch.

Otherwise… What’s the point, right? Some 1% few get bragging rights to owning Elon Musk halo truck while the planet continues to burn CO2. Not a good. Not a product. Its FU money. All the way around it’s a bad look for the product, the brand and TSLA looks like it sold its soul to the highest bidder.

I subscribe Sgl CT idea should be off the line first with Dual CT on its heels, followed by Tri and Quad CT’s to maximize impact. Get these trucks to work, in peoples’ hands and begin trading on the product impact on the planet. Them’s TSLA bragging rights! Let the product sell the halo $250k+ rigs.

 

[Clustertruck]

The R1T was out when Tesla launched the Cybertruck. It had a base price at $69k.

Guess where the Cybertruck’s top end ended up?

That tells an awful lot about where Tesla thinks the Cybertruck belongs in the market.

Rivian is a high end niche truck Tesla is pitching their top end Cybertruck against it.
The base Cybertruck is their F-150 mid market truck.



Musk has always pushed the Cybertruck as being an affordable truck. A $100k+ price tag doesn’t mesh with that at all. Maybe with options piled on.

The R1T launch in Nov 2018 didn't have pricing, but there was the speculation of $50K base to $90K loaded since May 2018.
The Rivian configurator was published in Jan '21 and brought some price changes and a lot of customers (expecting the vehicle in 2020) were excited by news of production in '21. Rivian kept the May 2018 price range (which is absurd) while Tesla increased the Y from $50K to $60K over the course of '21 with 7 (or more?) price increases. Rivian should have made some price increments between 2018 and 2021 … it's just one of many marketing and communications shortcomings.

The '22 price increase was the right decision – reversing the increase is the failure – they should have jettisoned the noisy Karens and bluffed the cancel culture nonsense of a few anonymous posts on forum sites. It's telling that the social media mavens caved at the first sign of trouble – their glowing reviews of the R1T became parroted screeching about "betrayal" … gutless wankers all of 'em.

Tesla set the fictional Cybertruck pricing to burden Rivian (and all competitors) with low price expectations … Musk knew he wasn't going to build the CT, so setting low prices would cause trouble for competitors and of course he'll raise prices on high end CT models for the first few years to gouge the "first kid on the block" types.

The Cybertruck, like the R1T is a premium priced luxury lifestyle consumer discretionary purchase in a niche. It's the Hummer of EVs … it's oversized and impractical, laking the utility of a pickup and limited by its weight and range. I imagine Musk could have called it a Humvee or Hummer, except, like the Model T and Model E, he couldn't get the naming rights.

 

[xodarap1]

To your point taking a 2k or 3k over cost == great

That assertion is hollow by the fact that GigaFactory was engineered, built and designed to provide economy of scale manufacture of EV’s.

Should Tesla “cost” require $2k or 3k USD above and beyond its own projected pricing = failure. Its a testament to Tesla design fail, engineering, fail and critically prima facia evidence that GigaFactory completelyfailed to enable the economy for which it was built.

Elon Musk wears the ”fail” around his neck as earned credibility everytime he must issue a proclamation. OEM’s must take Tesla’s own hubris fail as their lesson that BEV is beyond mere mortal affordability.

Most importantly, Nation state actions must read the the failure of the industry leading manufacture fail as proof that government assistance, subsidy and technology can’t bring the EV within reach of the people who need to replace ICE cars now.

IF every step, technology and blank slate effort such that Tesla provided Cybertruck cannot enable the transition to EV’s then it truly is a hit the TSLA, BEV industry and tech sector future leadership if it can’t produce affordable products needed to stop CO2 emissions.

I didn't mean take 2 or 3 above cost long term. I meant as a start to roll trucks out in a nice initial launch wave. Then, adjust pricing as they go along as they have with every other model after launch. I understand what you are saying, and I agree. I just mean initially as no other EV manufacturer would be able to match or do that. Tesla still has all the model Y to bolster things if they were to try something like this.

 

[Ogre]

The R1T launch in Nov 2018 didn't have pricing, but there was the speculation of $50K base to $90K loaded since May 2018.

This is from an article in January of 2020.

Rivian CEO and founder RJ Scaringe said at an event in San Francisco over the weekend that the long-range and high-performance all-electric R1S SUV and R1T utes will come at a price that is lower than previously promised.

Rivian had previously stated that the mid-range R1T electric ute (known as a pickup in the US) would start at $US69,000 ($A102,000 converted) and the R1S electric SUV from $US72,000 ($A106,500 converted).

This isn’t the only source from that time period with Scaringe talking about the “Promised $69k Pricing”. I’m not entirely sure when that price was set, but it was clearly before the Cybertruck was launched because multiple sources at the time have very similar quotes from Scaringe.

The Cybertruck, like the R1T is a premium priced luxury lifestyle consumer discretionary purchase in a niche. It's the Hummer of EVs … it's oversized and impractical, laking the utility of a pickup and limited by its weight and range. I imagine Musk could have called it a Humvee or Hummer, except, like the Model T and Model E, he couldn't get the naming rights.

This is your narrative based on a pile of assumptions you have made.

This is contrary to everything which has ever been said by Tesla or Musk.

 

[Ogre]

I'm jumping back in here. At our collective peril...

Affordability is relative, just like everything else in the universe. Every single manufacturer that sells something plays this balance with what they can charge and what they can get. 100k for a truck is ludicrous for me.

The thing is we don’t have to guess what Tesla and Musk had in mind when they talk about affordability. They told us on launch day. They are gunning for the middle of the road F-150.

Some adjustment for inflation might happen, but it’s pretty clear they know what most people think “Affordable” is.

They made a slide for what their idea of affordability meant. We don’t have to guess or make assumptions they spell it out. What is the average half ton pickup selling for right now? They posted their metric on a slide on launch day.

Over and over again they targeted the F-150 in their intro video. You want to know what price the base Cybertruck will be? Look at the comparable F-150 (ICE).

There are 100k trucks all over the place...

There are far more $40k trucks than $100k trucks though.

 

[empiredown]

I totally get you and think you are definitely researching the crap out of this stuff. I really, truly hope you are correct!

SS

 

[Crissa]

Except it's the other way around – the R&D has gone into the Y. The S (and 3 and X) receive upgrades as parts from the Y. The S Plaid uses Y hardware. The Roadster II doesn't exist; nor does the Cybertruck for that matter.
In terms of product line-up, the Rivian R1T is the competitor to the Cybertruck and the Rivian R1S is the competitor to the Model X. The Rivian vehicles have better prices (even after the 20% price increase, they were equal.)
I expect Tesla will not leave a dollar on the table and start with the Cybertruck priced around the Model X with a 2 or 3 year plan to release lower priced models.

The Y is above the 3 and got technology first.

The new doors, the new software, heating and cooling, that all was the X. That's new technology.

The gigacastings, the new battery, that's in the Y because they don't make enough of the S or X for those methods to be cost effective.

S->X->Y->3. Some technology doesn't make sense - like the gigacastings - to produce at small scale (hence being in the Y). Other technology - like the LFP batteries - doesn't match the performance of specific models (hence being in the 3 first).

Anyhow, even while Tesla wasn't making their high-margin S and X (which are admittedly, not so high margin when they're putting in new stuff) ... Tesla increased their margin last year by 10%.

That's alot of headroom to not raise prices with.

Musk's "negative gross margin" show his true character – he's disgusting. He waxes philosophic on making the world a better place, then attempts to sabotage an EV startup. A real bastard.

He did this where?

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

He did this where?

Musk tweeted that the Rivian was going to have high negative margins.

Considering Rivian themselves more or less admired as much, hardly big news. Why else would they try to raise prices the way they did? Why else would an executive get removed when pushing this issue?

 

[Crissa]

That doesn't sound like he was trying to sabotage them.

-Crissa

 

[LDRHAWKE]

A $49K or cheaper CT could well happen as a light commercial variant some time 2025 or so. Tesla will see Ford filling large fleet orders to unfussy buyers, taking higher margins and incurring lower costs. Musk will want Cybertrucks dressed in Police livery. Musk will want to play his Tony Stark fantasy and build military vehicles (and robots.) A CT with a "small" battery is still a huge battery for household backup power. There are several lucrative markets where Tesla will want a dirt cheap CT.

I don't think Musk thought Rivian was going in low. Ford is going much lower. I think Musk knew back then "I'm not building the Clustertruck till 2025, I can spoil these competitors by announcing with a low price for a variant I won't be building till long after 2025."

Musk's "negative gross margin" show his true character – he's disgusting. He waxes philosophic on making the world a better place, then attempts to sabotage an EV startup. A real bastard.

As I understand it, the CT is delayed into 2023 with no detail on starting, just that they're building as many Model Ys as possible and the Cybertruck/Roadster are not planned. At the time, $TSLA lost value because the market was disappointed to see Tesla not ready to build vehicles of the million plus pre-orders. The prospects of the CT have improved greatly, but it's still far off.

The Munro teardown of the S Plaid and their examination of the Cybertruck suggests there are no engineering or technology impediments to building the CT "today" – it's just a matter of capacity constraints and revenue priorities putting the Y ahead of the CT.

I don't know where Marxism or Bernie-ism come into this thread – I've not read it all. What can really be said about a product that doesn't exist and a company that changes pricing several times per year? Tesla is a pretty bloody terrible employer, actively suppressing worker's rights, and that ain't changin' any time soon.

Marxism and Bernie-ism doesn’t come into this thread. But, isn’t it amazing how a terrible employer surprisingly has workers vote out Unions!

 

[Ed Harris]

Hard to predict prices with all this crap going on in the world.
Any meaningful production will not start before 2023 with an estimated 77,000 units.
So if your number is 300K or higher nothing much before 2025 as they ramp up production. If any are produced in 2022 it will be in the 100 a week range gradually increasing. This will never catch the demand.
Also, Tesla Van will start production in 2024 with an estimated production of 26,000 units.

 

[Crissa]

Also, Tesla Van will start production in 2024 with an estimated production of 26,000 units.

Tesla hasn't even announced a van yet.

-Crissa

 

[Mrp911]

Elon’s remarks are more about why Rivian had to increase and less about what the CT will cost. Tesla has competitive advantage and can be most competitive. CTQuad with FSD $92k is my estimate. I guess we can all speculate and see what happens.

Love our 2018 Silver M3 Dual Motor LR with plus horsepower added. Licenseplate HO AG
Even more knowing we charge for $0.09/kwhr and gas is hitting $6/gallon around here.

 

[Marcia Litsinger]

Whole Mars Catalog understood very well.

Clearly, Musk said :

1. It needs to be affordable - He is alluding to the final price

2. It is extremely hard to do for Tesla... - which means hard, but they are doing it

3. Others 'Can't Touch This'. - BOOOOM

So in Elonspeak : We have been stretched, but we can do it, and we did it at a price people can afford, which is about the price we said.

Have a good sleep, we will ring you when it's done.

And BTW, other companies are totally fkd.. 10 years behind. They are toast.

I have been following Elon Musk since he first started producing electric cars. I have never thought he was a greedy SOB and still don't . I believe what he says ,why not? Elon isn't going to get to be the richest man , he already is. No need to lie to us.

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