How many FS are they making… is there a chance they cut us off and turn orders into Standard models?

[Known-Background]

After earnings call I am confused. In this group alone we have over 1000 accepted invites and still Elon says they have almost sold out, meaning they are making way more than 1000 FS. So what is the target this year, 10k FS? Doesn’t seem as exclusive. Do you think there’s over 10k accepted invites?

is there a chance our reservations will just flip to standard models once they hit a certain number of FS delivered or vins assigned?

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[Carmino]

If you get invited and confirm a Foundation Series I don't see any reason for Tesla to downgrade your order (if I understand your question correctly).

As to the number of Foundation Series being made, it seems like a sure fact to be well above 1,000. This is the only Tesla insider that I've ever seen mention 1,000 units, but it's from December 9th:

Officially, it’s 1000. I wouldn’t be surprised if it lasts until end Q1 2024, though.

 

[Alan]

I think the higher cost foundation series will be offered as long as the production requires a lot of human intervention. From what I can tell production is very low. That makes the cost really high. If they get the production line humming then they may quit the foundation series.

 

[ideaXfactory]

If Elon says they have nearly sold out production capacity for 2024 then he is the authority on the matter. So I tend to believe all units delivered in 2024 will therefore be Foundation series...

 

[Gurule92]

I dont see them sending out more invites then they want to build. While they did say 2024 is almost sold out. They didnt say 2024 was the only year theyll sell foundation series. Although I really hope it is.

 

[Amuma]

After earnings call I am confused. In this group alone we have over 1000 accepted invites and still Elon says they have almost sold out, meaning they are making way more than 1000 FS. So what is the target this year, 10k FS? Doesn’t seem as exclusive. Do you think there’s over 10k accepted invites?

is there a chance our reservations will just flip to standard models once they hit a certain number of FS delivered or vins assigned?

Birdie told me that all US day 1* res will have a chance to order a FS. But could be wrong.

 

[jookyone]

Birdie told me that all US day 1* res will have a chance to order a FS. But could be wrong.

This is an interesting concept, since there were about 150k preorders day one. If take rate is 10% and 2024 orders are already almost full, I'd predict that this is the most accurate assessment so far. I firmly believe they will make fewer than 20k CTs this year. End of January and they've delivered maybe 100?

 

[Coltpete]

This is an interesting concept, since there were about 150k preorders day one. If take rate is 10% and 2024 orders are already almost full, I'd predict that this is the most accurate assessment so far. I firmly believe they will make fewer than 20k CTs this year. End of January and they've delivered maybe 100?

Sure except I'm a day 2 preorderer and I've already put in my order. Some day 3s have also been able to place an order.

 

[jookyone]

Sure except I'm a day 2 preorderer and I've already put in my order. Some day 3s have also been able to place an order.

That would make up the remaining 5k orders in my estimate for first year production. Numbers don't lie

 

[Cybertruck2024]

This is an interesting concept, since there were about 150k preorders day one. If take rate is 10% and 2024 orders are already almost full, I'd predict that this is the most accurate assessment so far. I firmly believe they will make fewer than 20k CTs this year. End of January and they've delivered maybe 100?

I imagine the take rate is way below 10%.

If they go through the reservation list and hit 2% conversion to FS order, that's pretty phenomenal that that had 1 in 50 people agree to pay double the estimated reservation cost for a CT. That probably also gets them through year one of production. The $72k after tax rebate is about 40% more than the advertised cost of the AWD, because it was assumed there was no tax rebate for Tesla when the reservations were taken. Getting 10%-20% of people to pay 40% more than reservation price would also been a tremendous achievement for Tesla, but no chance in hell that many people are getting a FS.

 

[jookyone]

I imagine the take rate is way below 10%.

If they go through the reservation list and hit 2% conversion to FS order, that's pretty phenomenal that that had 1 in 50 people agree to pay double the estimated reservation cost for a CT. That probably also gets them through year one of production. The $72k after tax rebate is about 40% more than the advertised cost of the AWD, because it was assumed there was no tax rebate for Tesla when the reservations were taken. Getting 10%-20% of people to pay 40% more than reservation price would also been a tremendous achievement for Tesla, but no chance in hell that many people are getting a FS.

I think a 10% take rate for AWD/Tri-motor who had selected FSD in 2019 seems reasonable. About 34% of people here switched from Tri to AWD with a "forced" purchase of FSD. Original Tri price was $77k with FSD so jumping to the $100k price for someone already willing to pay the premium seems likely. I did the same, couldn't justify the lower range for the Beast and $50k markup, but could easily justify the markup and price for early adoption of a truck that delivered more than was promised at the AWD level. The preponderance of orders on this forum came from FSD reservations, so they knew the target audience could make the jump in price "COVID, I was gonna get it anyways, FIRST!" etc. Data supports this take.

 

[mark555055c]

IMO, it's a question of when and not, how many.

FS CTs will continue until production rate outpaces FS orders, it's that simple. When this occurs? Who knows.

 

[Cybertruck2024]

I think a 10% take rate for AWD/Tri-motor who had selected FSD in 2019 seems reasonable. About 34% of people here switched from Tri to AWD with a "forced" purchase of FSD. Original Tri price was $77k with FSD so jumping to the $100k price for someone already willing to pay the premium seems likely. I did the same, couldn't justify the lower range for the Beast and $50k markup, but could easily justify the markup and price for early adoption of a truck that delivered more than was promised at the AWD level. The preponderance of orders on this forum came from FSD reservations, so they knew the target audience could make the jump in price "COVID, I was gonna get it anyways, FIRST!" etc. Data supports this take.

I imagine the reservation to order rate on this forum is substantially higher than the general population. This is all enthusiasts.

I never bought a pack of Pokémon cards in my life. If we asked the question of how many people buy Pokémon cards on this forum versus a Pokémon forum, the numbers will look drastically different. It's flawed data.

 

[jookyone]

I imagine the reservation to order rate on this forum is substantially higher than the general population. This is all enthusiasts.

I never bought a pack of Pokémon cards in my life. If we asked the question of how many people buy Pokémon cards on this forum versus a Pokémon forum, the numbers will look drastically different. It's flawed data.

Extremely flawed analogy. We are talking a sample (forum enthusiasts) vs a greater population of the exact same type of people, but don't do online forums (still enthusiasts). Enthusiasts are buyers that would bite at a FS level price change. We are the exact audience, and that exact audience exists outside this forum in much greater numbers. Tegtmeyer flies over the factory every couple days and estimates 8-9 trucks coming out per hour as of 1/21. We've only clocked about 16 total here. Our sample is small, but the data supports the take rate. Still just an educated guess. Market analysts think 20%, I think half that even as an enthusiast. If I went by just forum numbers that would be much higher.

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