MKBHD: Will the Cybertruck outsell Ford F-150?

[Arctic_White]

Put me in a camp where I think that the CT will outsell F-150 sometime by 2030.

This video implies that despite current demand, Tesla won't outsell the F-150:

What are your thoughts?

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[jerhenderson]

that's what Ford wishes...

 

[Sirfun]

Notice how none of them take into account the possibility of Ford F150 sales dropping? That's already starting to happen. So, in order for the CT to surpass the F150, the number to reach could be 500K before 2030. My bet would be yes the CT will outsell the ICE F150 before 2030. Think about using the CT for V2H or especially V2G. Plus having Full FSD, what demand might that create.

With True Cost of Ownership. Immediately a CT will cost less to own than a F150. But also the costs of a CT could go down in the next 7 years, while the cost of an ICE F150 will probably go up.

Things can change very quickly.

 

[SolarWizard]

that guy knows less than absolute zero about vehicles

 

[Gurule92]

If there werent a million versions of the f150 that all fit a different need maybe. but i dont think CT can do that tbh

 

[cvalue13]

Matthew “Sharpie Beard” Donovan Ryan was today on twotter saying CT will outsell F150 in 2026, threatening bets

Strange thing to bet before knowing pricing

 

[charliemagpie]

We can't like a new thing better if it doesn't exist yet.

And we can't say we prefer the old, if we haven't seen the new.

To me, the trend is the Model Y is the best selling car in the world.. Over ICE.
No reason why the trend should stop there.

 

[fhteagle]

that guy knows less than absolute zero about vehicles

I was just going to say MKBHD stands for "Motor Knowledge: Butt Hole Derived".

 

[RVAC]

Do we even know how many F-150's are sold each year?

 

[sstevens805]

I'm a huge CT fan and can't wait to have mine, but I don't think it'll outsell the F-150 anytime soon. Lightning-yes, ICE version-no way. Way too many diehard truck fans. I may be wrong but there needs to be something dramatic for this to happen, low price, exceptional range, larger/nicer interior, etc. Not saying the CT is a niche vehicle, but the F150 has been a swiss army knife for a long, long time and changing behaviors is very difficult.

 

[Regenshire]

To be fair to MKBHD, the hot take he was replying to was "The Cybertruck will outsell the F150 by 2026", not 2030. That is unlikely to happen for the reasons he mentions. Even if it has the demand for it, its unlikely Tesla would be able to ramp it fast enough to eclipse the current F150 numbers in that limited time frame.

His reasoning is sound. Now some of the other commenters on this podcast video are all over the place, but he is much more reasonable in his comments about the CyberTruck. I would say his outlook as presented here and in his hot takes video are moderate and realistic.

Believing the Cybertruck will outsell the F150 within 3 years is very optimistic, in my opinion.

 

[scottf200]

The CT has *no* chance to outsell the F150. Most sales will be to [super] Tesla fans and some non-truck people which may get rid of it when they realize the complications of driving something that size. CT has stainless steel as its major selling point. Glass TBD. I do like safety and charging aspects of Teslas. Others have luxury and functionality both with years of truck customer experience incorporated.

So far it is all show and other trucks are demonstrating. ... ie. Silverado EV towing event including letting the towing engineers do drive-alongs (YT URL). Ford media page on the T3 and Blue oval.

Ford Lighting is a small stepping stone. Ford understands the future threat to their big $ maker. They are building a BEV truck from the ground up with/in Blue Oval City in TN (battery|recycling|T3 vehicle manufacturing) Ford T3 "F150" in 2025.

Re: T3: As well see thread
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...eoval-build-battery-recycle.8871/#post-165569

___ Ford is *not* the only truck competitor out there ___

GoodCarBadCar:

Ford (Ford T3 TN plant 2025 URL)

Chevrolet

Dodge

 

[Crissa]

F-series isn't just the F150.

-Crissa

 

[Arctic_White]

F-series isn't just the F150.

-Crissa

Correct. We are specifically talking about the F-150 which does admittedly include many trim variants.

Once the Cybertruck is launched, people will realize its value and we will see a huge influx of new orders. This will cause Tesla to realize that the Cybertruck's actual demand far exceeds the current reservation.

Tesla just needs to price the Cybertruck right, and I think they will.

$50K for a Dual-Mode Cybertruck with a 350+ mile range would be amazing.

 

[scottf200]

F-series isn't just the F150. -Crissa

Correct. We are specifically talking about the F-150 which does admittedly include many trim variants.

90+% of those F150s? I recall reading about 50+ trim variants for Ford. Something being largely ("fractional") reduced for T3 (per Jim F video)

We could add in GMCs sales too to GM. (General Motors = GMC, Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Hummer)

We are in for interesting times but a fire has been lit under the OEMs and they seem to understand what is at stake now. That BlueCity site is supposed to produced T3s in late 2025.

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