CyberGus

Well-known member
First Name
Gus
Joined
May 22, 2021
Threads
64
Messages
5,666
Reaction score
18,606
Location
Austin, TX
Website
www.timeanddate.com
Vehicles
1981 DeLorean, 2024 Cybertruck
Occupation
IT Specialist
Country flag
Are you that early?!
Last April when Elon said "next year", I picked 1 August as my target. I'm standing by my prediction.

I'm hopeful that my proximity to the factory will afford me an early opportunity,.
Sponsored

 

SpaceYooper

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2020
Threads
44
Messages
832
Reaction score
1,484
Location
Colorado Springs
Vehicles
13' F150, 17' Explorer, 13' Cruz, 13' Clubman
Occupation
Retired USSF SNCO, REALTOR®
Country flag
I'm doubling down on my guess (Credit @charliemagpie because my guess is pretty much his numbers but different dates.)

...I am hopeful that deliveries look something like this.

DeliveriesRunning Total
The week of
3-Sep​
50​
50​
The week of
10-Sep​
200​
250​
The week of
17-Sep​
350​
600​
The week of
24-Sep​
500​
1100​
The week of
1-Oct​
650​
1750​
The week of
8-Oct​
800​
2550​
The week of
15-Oct​
950​
3500​
The week of
22-Oct​
1100​
4600​
The week of
29-Oct​
1250​
5850​
The week of
5-Nov​
1400​
7250​
The week of
12-Nov​
1550​
8800​
The week of
19-Nov​
1700​
10500​
The week of
26-Nov​
1850​
12350​
The week of
3-Dec​
2000​
14350​
The week of
10-Dec​
2150​
16500​
The week of
17-Dec​
2300​
18800​
The week of
24-Dec​
2450​
21250​
The day of
31-Dec​
350​
21600​

For what it's worth, I'm about 90k overall and I think 20k-ish for a CT3 w/FSD. Some people will cancel or delay their purchase, so I'm hoping for a finalization email this summer or fall at a price I'm willing to pay including insurance. But we also have no idea how the rollout priority is going to work. I'm guessing Colorado will be fairly early though.
 

JBee

Well-known member
First Name
JB
Joined
Nov 22, 2019
Threads
17
Messages
4,623
Reaction score
5,960
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
. Professional Hobbyist
Country flag
None. Will all be quad motors initially?
 


MonkeyDeLuffy

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 7, 2023
Threads
3
Messages
230
Reaction score
362
Location
BayArea
Vehicles
Maverick
Occupation
Math In-and-Out
Country flag
For ETA, if you think about this, we all can't be more right than Elon, if he speaks the truth. And we can't be more wrong if one of us gets a CT this year. With all $ invested in 4680 and CT production, and weaker demand on all other models, Tesla has to create new demand strategically. Chance of disappointment caused by 'late delivery' is pretty low. I am more worried about quality...with help from Tom Zhu and support from Elon, hope Ops can have the conn this time...not Eng...they don't know what a good car is...
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,996
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Might be, but would be opposite of the original roll-out plan of dual motors plus 300 mile pack first and try-motor 500-mile pack a year later.
Original was Single and Dual first then Tri later.

Then after a week they switched to Dual and Tri with single later.

Then sometime I think late 2021 Musk said said there would be a quad motor and it would be first release.

It’s been a bit all over.
 

greggertruck

Well-known member
First Name
g
Joined
Mar 30, 2022
Threads
199
Messages
2,450
Reaction score
7,053
Location
Zimbabwe
Website
www.twitter.com
Vehicles
Dual-CT
Occupation
I post Cybertruck stuff on the Internet and people like it.
Country flag
I'm doubling down on my guess (Credit @charliemagpie because my guess is pretty much his numbers but different dates.)
21,600 is quite high.
I’m personally more conservative with my estimate. They’ll get about 1500-2000 delivered in 2023.
 

mfg310

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2023
Threads
3
Messages
63
Reaction score
53
Location
SoCal
Vehicles
Audi eTron, Chevy Bolt EUV
Country flag
Based on history, how many does a typical Tesla "soft launch" entail?
 


mfg310

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2023
Threads
3
Messages
63
Reaction score
53
Location
SoCal
Vehicles
Audi eTron, Chevy Bolt EUV
Country flag
You mean the launch event? Usually ~30 employees.
No, Musk said it would be a “soft launch” for the CT….. presumably the other models also had soft launches, so those of you with in-depth tesla knowledge might be able to estimate how many cybertrucks we would see in a soft launch.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,996
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
No, Musk said it would be a “soft launch” for the CT….. presumably the other models also had soft launches, so those of you with in-depth tesla knowledge might be able to estimate how many cybertrucks we would see in a soft launch.
I think there are a lot of vague terms being tossed around. The COVID/ supply chain plagued Model Y line in Texas was pretty soft. In 12 months went from ~300 cars/ week to 4,000/ week. I think that qualifies.
 

mfg310

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 26, 2023
Threads
3
Messages
63
Reaction score
53
Location
SoCal
Vehicles
Audi eTron, Chevy Bolt EUV
Country flag
I think there are a lot of vague terms being tossed around. The COVID/ supply chain plagued Model Y line in Texas was pretty soft. In 12 months went from ~300 cars/ week to 4,000/ week. I think that qualifies.
Model 3 started with a “soft launch“, too. From the article I just read about today: “He also said that the (CT) production would follow the classic cycle, i.e. a soft start before an acceleration of operations.”

So maybe it can extrapolated from prior models?
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,996
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Model 3 started with a “soft launch“, too. From the article I just read about today: “He also said that the (CT) production would follow the classic cycle, i.e. a soft start before an acceleration of operations.”

So maybe it can extrapolated from prior models?
I think the article is sort of putting words into Musk’s mouth. What I heard from Musk is 2023 would be slow and volume production would be in 2024. That’s pretty typical of any Tesla launch. Tesla usually refers to “Volume Production” is usually in the ballpark of 5,000 vehicles per week.

I haven’t soaked up all the Q1 call stuff yet, but I don’t think they’ve changed that.
Sponsored

 
 




Top