Musk: Cybertruck delivery event happening in Q3 2023! + other quotes from earnings call

[CyberGus]

Are you that early?!

Last April when Elon said "next year", I picked 1 August as my target. I'm standing by my prediction.

I'm hopeful that my proximity to the factory will afford me an early opportunity,.

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[Cyberpunk2077]

Ooooooooh yeaaaaaaah....

 

[SpaceYooper]

I'm doubling down on my guess (Credit @charliemagpie because my guess is pretty much his numbers but different dates.)

...I am hopeful that deliveries look something like this.

		Deliveries	Running Total
The week of	3-Sep​	50​	50​
The week of	10-Sep​	200​	250​
The week of	17-Sep​	350​	600​
The week of	24-Sep​	500​	1100​
The week of	1-Oct​	650​	1750​
The week of	8-Oct​	800​	2550​
The week of	15-Oct​	950​	3500​
The week of	22-Oct​	1100​	4600​
The week of	29-Oct​	1250​	5850​
The week of	5-Nov​	1400​	7250​
The week of	12-Nov​	1550​	8800​
The week of	19-Nov​	1700​	10500​
The week of	26-Nov​	1850​	12350​
The week of	3-Dec​	2000​	14350​
The week of	10-Dec​	2150​	16500​
The week of	17-Dec​	2300​	18800​
The week of	24-Dec​	2450​	21250​
The day of	31-Dec​	350​	21600​

For what it's worth, I'm about 90k overall and I think 20k-ish for a CT3 w/FSD. Some people will cancel or delay their purchase, so I'm hoping for a finalization email this summer or fall at a price I'm willing to pay including insurance. But we also have no idea how the rollout priority is going to work. I'm guessing Colorado will be fairly early though.

 

[JBee]

None. Will all be quad motors initially?

 

[BayouCityBob]

None. Will all be quad motors initially?

Might be, but would be opposite of the original roll-out plan of dual motors plus 300 mile pack first and try-motor 500-mile pack a year later.

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

For ETA, if you think about this, we all can't be more right than Elon, if he speaks the truth. And we can't be more wrong if one of us gets a CT this year. With all $ invested in 4680 and CT production, and weaker demand on all other models, Tesla has to create new demand strategically. Chance of disappointment caused by 'late delivery' is pretty low. I am more worried about quality...with help from Tom Zhu and support from Elon, hope Ops can have the conn this time...not Eng...they don't know what a good car is...

 

[Ogre]

Might be, but would be opposite of the original roll-out plan of dual motors plus 300 mile pack first and try-motor 500-mile pack a year later.

Original was Single and Dual first then Tri later.

Then after a week they switched to Dual and Tri with single later.

Then sometime I think late 2021 Musk said said there would be a quad motor and it would be first release.

It’s been a bit all over.

 

[greggertruck]

I'm doubling down on my guess (Credit @charliemagpie because my guess is pretty much his numbers but different dates.)

21,600 is quite high.
I’m personally more conservative with my estimate. They’ll get about 1500-2000 delivered in 2023.

 

[mfg310]

Based on history, how many does a typical Tesla "soft launch" entail?

 

[Ogre]

Based on history, how many does a typical Tesla "soft launch" entail?

You mean the launch event? Usually ~30 employees.

 

[mfg310]

You mean the launch event? Usually ~30 employees.

No, Musk said it would be a “soft launch” for the CT….. presumably the other models also had soft launches, so those of you with in-depth tesla knowledge might be able to estimate how many cybertrucks we would see in a soft launch.

 

[Ogre]

No, Musk said it would be a “soft launch” for the CT….. presumably the other models also had soft launches, so those of you with in-depth tesla knowledge might be able to estimate how many cybertrucks we would see in a soft launch.

I think there are a lot of vague terms being tossed around. The COVID/ supply chain plagued Model Y line in Texas was pretty soft. In 12 months went from ~300 cars/ week to 4,000/ week. I think that qualifies.

 

[mfg310]

I think there are a lot of vague terms being tossed around. The COVID/ supply chain plagued Model Y line in Texas was pretty soft. In 12 months went from ~300 cars/ week to 4,000/ week. I think that qualifies.

Model 3 started with a “soft launch“, too. From the article I just read about today: “He also said that the (CT) production would follow the classic cycle, i.e. a soft start before an acceleration of operations.”

So maybe it can extrapolated from prior models?

 

[Ogre]

Model 3 started with a “soft launch“, too. From the article I just read about today: “He also said that the (CT) production would follow the classic cycle, i.e. a soft start before an acceleration of operations.”

So maybe it can extrapolated from prior models?

I think the article is sort of putting words into Musk’s mouth. What I heard from Musk is 2023 would be slow and volume production would be in 2024. That’s pretty typical of any Tesla launch. Tesla usually refers to “Volume Production” is usually in the ballpark of 5,000 vehicles per week.

I haven’t soaked up all the Q1 call stuff yet, but I don’t think they’ve changed that.

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