Poll: How many preorders will turn into orders?

[SpaceDoc]

Maybe Ford will survive, but the Ford current 160 billion debt compared to Tesla 10 billion debt, isn't such a great picture.
Especially as Tesla manufacturing is poised to launch into a new stratosphere of efficiency.
While Ford is still in old school ICE F-150 dependency.
Hopefully Ford and survive as the competition will only make the Tesla CT look better and better.

As I said in another comment, Ford has extensive EV and PHEV offerings, and has made a huge commitment to further expanding EVs. They will milk ICE for all it’s worth, until forced away from it by market forces, which Tesla is helping to drive.

Ford is about 4 times larger than Tesla based on revenue, so obviously they will have greater debt. In the near to mid-term Tesla will need to take on a lot more debt to pay for their “launch into the stratosphere of efficiency”. For now, Ford generally makes money, and Tesla generally losses it, as you would expect for a relative startup company like Tesla.

There is obviously a bias towards Tesla in these forums, being its all about the CT — a vehicle that hasn’t even been produced yet, BTW.

I want a CT and I’m rooting for Tesla all the way, but Ford isn’t going anywhere.

Here’s some interesting financial data to look at…

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/income-statement

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/financial-statements

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

As I said in another comment, Ford has extensive EV and PHEV offerings, and has made a huge commitment to further expanding EVs. They will milk ICE for all it’s worth, until forced away from it by market forces, which Tesla is helping to drive.

They have lots of PHEVs which are just ICE vehicles in disguise. Isn’t their only BEV the fairly low volume Mach E? Their goal was 50,000 in 2021 and they’ve only made 25k so far?

I just don’t see counting every vehicle with a cord as being a very effective way of looking at the industry. A PHEV has a battery 1/10th the size of a Model Y’s battery.

Ford is about 4 times larger than Tesla based on revenue, so obviously they will have greater debt. In the near to mid-term Tesla will need to take on a lot more debt to pay for their “launch into the stratosphere of efficiency”. For now, Ford generally makes money, and Tesla generally losses it, as you would expect for a relative startup company like Tesla.

Tesla grew sales 75% last year, they are on track to grow them another 50-75% this year, and they have 28% margins. Are Ford’s sales even up year/ year? 2 years ago, Tesla was what 1/10th the size of Ford?

I’m not suggesting Ford is going to be putting up a going out of business sale next week, or maybe never. They seem to be much more clued in than Stellantis or Toyota for certain (and more competent than GM).

But if ICE revenue starts to drop off, things get lopsided really fast. Ford isn’t ready to replace ICE with BEV at all right now. The profits aren’t there and the scale isn’t there. It’s difficult to envision them moving over to BEV fast enough to come out the other side smelling like roses.

 

[Sandybayes1]

I might not follow through on my purchase mainly because it's taking longer than I had hoped and my needs have changed as I approach 70 (when I see the CT being available). Do I really need a truck anymore? If Tesla came out with a smaller CT, I might try holding out for an extra year or two. So many things will change in the next 2-3 years that I could easily see less than 50% purchase. I would have suggested breaking down your poll into 10% increments and I would have picked one at 50%. This still means more than 500K CTs being sold and once we see what it's like, that number could continue to grow (new sales, not reserved sales).

I'm 79 and just like trucks plus I'm planning on renting it out to help pay it off. i may want something smaller too depending on what Tesla comes up with in the next few years.

 

[Todd D]

I will definitely take mine. Ordered a Tri motor. Even if it just becomes my hunting truck I can not see not buying it. Whether it is my primary or secondary vehicle will depend on how long the delivery date is pushed out and What I've bought before then. In need of a primary vehicle now.

 

[USAFChief]

As Cybertruck gets closer to production, they should increase the deposit requirement for those on the list to firm up the numbers and clear out the "chaff".

 

[shaneaus]

"I want a CT and I’m rooting for Tesla all the way, but Ford isn’t going anywhere.

Here’s some interesting financial data to look at…

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/income-statement

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/financial-statements "

As I said in another comment, Ford has extensive EV and PHEV offerings, and has made a huge commitment to further expanding EVs. They will milk ICE for all it’s worth, until forced away from it by market forces, which Tesla is helping to drive.

Ford is about 4 times larger than Tesla based on revenue, so obviously they will have greater debt. In the near to mid-term Tesla will need to take on a lot more debt to pay for their “launch into the stratosphere of efficiency”. For now, Ford generally makes money, and Tesla generally losses it, as you would expect for a relative startup company like Tesla.

There is obviously a bias towards Tesla in these forums, being its all about the CT — a vehicle that hasn’t even been produced yet, BTW.

I want a CT and I’m rooting for Tesla all the way, but Ford isn’t going anywhere.

Here’s some interesting financial data to look at…

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/income-statement

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/financial-statements

Check those financial data sites you just listed. Every year Ford's net profit is decreasing. Every year Tesla's net profit is increasing.

Ford: operating income - 2015, $14,349 : 2020, $-4,408. Net Income - 2015, $7,373 : 2020, $-1,279
Tesla: Op income - 2015, $716.62 : 2020, $1,994. Net income - 2015, $-888.66 : 2020, $690

The above is without considering that Giga Shanghai production for the Model Y is slated for 2021 and Giga Berlin/Giga Texas will start production late 2021 and ramp up in 2022. All of Giga Texas production will be taking money from other OEM's. 100% of the CT production - over 800k trucks/yr in 2025 will take money from Ford/GM/Dodge/Toyota.

Ford has really high debt and very little cash flow. Tesla has very little debt and very high cash flow. Ford isn't paying much of their debt off at anywhere close to a fast rate. Telsa paid off their six year loan to build Giga Shanghai in 18 months! AND, Tesla paid that loan off with ONLY money generated from Giga Shanghai vehicle production. Crazy.
------
TLR
I hope Ford/GM make it - but, many investors who are knowledgeable about the EV market are not hopeful. Very high debt, low profits, increased need for investment, supply chain issues, low production, and minimal and poorly maintained EV charging networks. That doesn't add up to success.
-------

GM, Ford, and Stellantis/Dodge all have huge debts and low cash flow. Tesla has very low debt and really high cash flow. What makes Tesla appear to have low profits is that they use almost all of their profits to pay off debt, build factories, hire employees, and for R&D. Elon stated at the last stockholders meeting that there is no plan to pay out dividends any time soon. Ford, GM, and Stellantis all have to pay stockholders as well.

The battery materials crunch will come with all the increase in demand. Tesla has secured almost their entire supply chain. That is one reason they are delivering at a record pace - while the "big three" have vehicles sitting in lots waiting on parts. I'm hoping that Ford's contracts with LG Chem and SK will allow them to keep up. But, Tesla has earlier contracts with LG and will likely get preferential shipment over Ford due to larger shipments/contract priority clauses.

Another component to this whole survivability thing on the part of Ford and GM - they only make profit on their trucks. Tesla makes profit on every single vehicle AND with a higher profit margin than the other manufacturers.

Ford, GM, and Stellantis are UNABLE to commit enough resources to retool fast enough because of their debt to profit margin. The recent announcement by one of them to invest 14 billion in a plant was regarded by insider experts as a minimal investment.

From all that I have read Ford and GM will have a very difficult time producing EV's at volume - not due to making most of the trucks - but, due to securing enough battery packs quickly enough. Tesla - once it gets the plant finished takes about one year to get to FULL production. If the CT begins production by the beginning of 2023 - by the end of 2023 they'll produce more trucks from Giga Texas in 2024 than Ford and GM combined. In 2024 I expect that if you want an EV truck from anyone else you'll be on a very long waiting list. So, even if Ford and GM get a couple models out the door first they'll still have to get their volume up using smaller and more limited plants.

My final comment will be the experience post purchase. Ford and GM buyers will be using crappy charging networks unless Ford and/or GM contract with Tesla. So, post purchase experience will be a charging hell for the owners. That will become known amongst "truck owners" really quickly! While CT owners will have a huge dedicated and excellent charging network that is constantly expanding. So, Ford/GM might start sales as strong as they are able - but, their demand may not continue to be as high due to charging issues.

 

[Crissa]

Ford is in trouble. They have debt problems. They're starting out this EV transition with more debt than Tesla ever had so...

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...nment-loan-department-energy-debt/5526413002/

They are going to be squeezed hard. And Stellantis is a lesson that no, one of the big three can totally be liquidated.

-Crissa

 

[Wally]

Crissa has always been correct...I think the big change will be when the police departments wake up to the advantages of the CT for them.

 

[Deleted member 12457]

Crissa has always been correct...I think the big change will be when the police departments wake up to the advantages of the CT for them.

This depends on how close the ties are between the police unions and the UAW along with all the politicians getting bribe money to keep forcing the buy American rules (funny, most "American" cars aren't actually made in the USA). I've started to see some local city/county governments buying non-American cars for their fleet but I'm sure the federal fleets are still forced to use Ford and GM products. If the police want them, Tesla will need to do some special configurations including turning off all the Tesla cameras.

 

[SpaceDoc]

Ford is in trouble. They have debt problems. They're starting out this EV transition with more debt than Tesla ever had so...

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...nment-loan-department-energy-debt/5526413002/

They are going to be squeezed hard. And Stellantis is a lesson that no, one of the big three can totally be liquidated.

-Crissa

Ford has been in debt and been squeezed before, so it’s not like this is any kind of monumental challenge.

Like I said earlier, there is a major bias in this forum to see Tesla succeed and drive all the other automakers out of business. That simply will not happen. And if it did happen, it would not be good for anyone, including Tesla.

 

[Ogre]

Crissa has always been correct...I think the big change will be when the police departments wake up to the advantages of the CT for them.

They are already buying up Model Ys.

The Cybertruck is perhaps a little big for most PD work. I can definitely see them as highway patrol though.

 

[SpaceDoc]

"I want a CT and I’m rooting for Tesla all the way, but Ford isn’t going anywhere.

Here’s some interesting financial data to look at…

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/income-statement

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/financial-statements "



Check those financial data sites you just listed. Every year Ford's net profit is decreasing. Every year Tesla's net profit is increasing.

Ford: operating income - 2015, $14,349 : 2020, $-4,408. Net Income - 2015, $7,373 : 2020, $-1,279
Tesla: Op income - 2015, $716.62 : 2020, $1,994. Net income - 2015, $-888.66 : 2020, $690

The above is without considering that Giga Shanghai production for the Model Y is slated for 2021 and Giga Berlin/Giga Texas will start production late 2021 and ramp up in 2022. All of Giga Texas production will be taking money from other OEM's. 100% of the CT production - over 800k trucks/yr in 2025 will take money from Ford/GM/Dodge/Toyota.

Ford has really high debt and very little cash flow. Tesla has very little debt and very high cash flow. Ford isn't paying much of their debt off at anywhere close to a fast rate. Telsa paid off their six year loan to build Giga Shanghai in 18 months! AND, Tesla paid that loan off with ONLY money generated from Giga Shanghai vehicle production. Crazy.
------
TLR
I hope Ford/GM make it - but, many investors who are knowledgeable about the EV market are not hopeful. Very high debt, low profits, increased need for investment, supply chain issues, low production, and minimal and poorly maintained EV charging networks. That doesn't add up to success.
-------

GM, Ford, and Stellantis/Dodge all have huge debts and low cash flow. Tesla has very low debt and really high cash flow. What makes Tesla appear to have low profits is that they use almost all of their profits to pay off debt, build factories, hire employees, and for R&D. Elon stated at the last stockholders meeting that there is no plan to pay out dividends any time soon. Ford, GM, and Stellantis all have to pay stockholders as well.

The battery materials crunch will come with all the increase in demand. Tesla has secured almost their entire supply chain. That is one reason they are delivering at a record pace - while the "big three" have vehicles sitting in lots waiting on parts. I'm hoping that Ford's contracts with LG Chem and SK will allow them to keep up. But, Tesla has earlier contracts with LG and will likely get preferential shipment over Ford due to larger shipments/contract priority clauses.

Another component to this whole survivability thing on the part of Ford and GM - they only make profit on their trucks. Tesla makes profit on every single vehicle AND with a higher profit margin than the other manufacturers.

Ford, GM, and Stellantis are UNABLE to commit enough resources to retool fast enough because of their debt to profit margin. The recent announcement by one of them to invest 14 billion in a plant was regarded by insider experts as a minimal investment.

From all that I have read Ford and GM will have a very difficult time producing EV's at volume - not due to making most of the trucks - but, due to securing enough battery packs quickly enough. Tesla - once it gets the plant finished takes about one year to get to FULL production. If the CT begins production by the beginning of 2023 - by the end of 2023 they'll produce more trucks from Giga Texas in 2024 than Ford and GM combined. In 2024 I expect that if you want an EV truck from anyone else you'll be on a very long waiting list. So, even if Ford and GM get a couple models out the door first they'll still have to get their volume up using smaller and more limited plants.

My final comment will be the experience post purchase. Ford and GM buyers will be using crappy charging networks unless Ford and/or GM contract with Tesla. So, post purchase experience will be a charging hell for the owners. That will become known amongst "truck owners" really quickly! While CT owners will have a huge dedicated and excellent charging network that is constantly expanding. So, Ford/GM might start sales as strong as they are able - but, their demand may not continue to be as high due to charging issues.

Nice cherry picking. Those pages do not support your assumptions.

Interpreting a corporate financial statement is not so straightforward. Earnings per share and net income are more interesting, but still not the whole story.
And paying off debt is pretty easy when you are a much smaller company with products that are in demand and a much lower relative debt.

The rest of your comment was full of wild assumptions and wishful thinking. I hope a lot of it is right.

Interesting counter point… if all the other automakers collapse there is zero chance that Tesla can fill the void on its own.

 

[John K]

As Cybertruck gets closer to production, they should increase the deposit requirement for those on the list to firm up the numbers and clear out the "chaff".

If Tesla asks to increase deposit, I don’t mind if they do, they better commit to my vin number production start date

 

[useemehere]

I'm curious what you think. I'm guessing between 50 and 75% of preorders will turn into orders; how about you?

Yes I think most of the orders will go be higher because I know a lot’s of people ordered more than one so they can sales it to other who is willing to add money just to be ahead of line.

 

[PointHope]

As I said in another comment, Ford has extensive EV and PHEV offerings, and has made a huge commitment to further expanding EVs. They will milk ICE for all it’s worth, until forced away from it by market forces, which Tesla is helping to drive.

Ford is about 4 times larger than Tesla based on revenue, so obviously they will have greater debt. In the near to mid-term Tesla will need to take on a lot more debt to pay for their “launch into the stratosphere of efficiency”. For now, Ford generally makes money, and Tesla generally losses it, as you would expect for a relative startup company like Tesla.

There is obviously a bias towards Tesla in these forums, being its all about the CT — a vehicle that hasn’t even been produced yet, BTW.

I want a CT and I’m rooting for Tesla all the way, but Ford isn’t going anywhere.

Here’s some interesting financial data to look at…

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/income-statement

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/financial-statements

IMHO the PHEV is overly complex engineering which doesn't last.
For example you can't even give a used Toyota Prius away.
PHEV are a lame excuse for not having a charging infrastructure.
The F-150 EV is essentially a legacy ICE vehicle converted to EV. Hardly anything original. People have been converting old ICE junk to EV in their home garages for years now.
The Tesla is something new and quite innovative. the new manufacturing processes are going to rock the world of Ford.
Not to mention the many new China EV competitors on the pike.

I hope Ford pulls it together. I'm actually a Ford guy, having bought 3 brand new Fords in the past and worked at a big Ford dealer for two years.

Sponsored