Reservation numbers and reality

[beewang]

....and have no doubt i have a year wait max. lightening lines looked scary too at the start.

I think your theory can be flawed. Using the same "Ford Lightning" Analogy compared to a similar Tesla vehicle:

The Tesla Model Y and the Ford E-Stang... both have "scary lines" at the beginning and then.. Ford E-Stang fell off the cliff (while production barely increased over time).

Conversely, the Tesla Model Y demand increased (while production 8 X) and price increased (from 1/2022~12/2022).

Finally, in mid 2023 Model Y became the #1 selling car in the world. Price finally receded due to a softer economy and rising interest rates. However, Model Y is still flying out the factory and delivered immediately after rolling off the assembly line.

Not the case with E-stang

*** My point.. Not many wants a Ford Lightning...
OTOH, CyberTruck has 2M reservations (at $100.00 each, people have put up $200,000,000.00 (that's almost 1/4 Billion Dollars).

Conclusion: DON'T count on the "1 year Max" wait, but rather, count on 1 year Minimum wait. Adjust your expectations can only make your life easier on the wait.

Just my 2 cents,

beewang

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[Jhodgesatmb]

To those speaking about the price issue.

Just to make clear this point is also hammered.

The Plaid once cost 130k. It's now 90k.

Tesla pricing policies aren't stable. So no only the CT is 30k or more, it seems certain that eventually the price will be lowered dramatically.

I'm not that much of a fan.

Despite our occasional grumbling most of us here are fans.

 

[Mini2nut]

If 2M Cybertruck reservations and a 20% “take rate” are accurate:

400,000 real Cybertruck buyers and 1.6M cancelled reservations.

 

[beewang]

i dont believe the 2M number for a second

So what number do you believe then (other than to smooth out bias towards when you will have your CT in a year?)?

Look for PR and statements made by Tesla officers (i.e. Musk). As a PubCo, a statement made that can infer to the future P&L effects have legal consequences such as from the US SEC, if untrue.

 

[Arctic_White]

i dont believe the 2M number for a second

Tesla themselves had said that the reservation # is beyond 1M. Assume 90% cancel, that is still 100K+ confirmed buyers. Tesla isn't making 100K cybertrucks in 2024, so the wait time for many will be 2025 at the earliest.

I believe the demand will increase once folks realize how incredible this vehicle is.

Ergo, I think the Cybertruck will be sold out for several years even at these current, very expensive prices.

 

[mhaze]

In time, Tesla will scale the Cybertruck to great numbers, that's a near certainty, but it's pretty obvious, based on multiple small clues, there has been another delay. Based on all the clues we have available, and more on the flavor of those clues than anything specific, I'm guessing the high-volume ramp won't start until until mid-late 2024. I wish (and hope) it is not so, but that looks like the most likely scenario.

Between now and then, Tesla will probably start and stop the production line frequently, making adjustments to the line, and also to the actual build of the CT, to improve the build in small ways, rather than the more normal focus on increasing weekly production ASAP.

The most likely issue is production of the 4680 cells. I think Tesla is looking to get to gen 3 cells before building more than 10,000 Cybertrucks (very rough number). Again, I hope I'm wrong but, if not, the end result will be an even better Cybertruck at a lower cost.

The empirical reality of full production is the number of cars in the lot and the frequency of car transports leaving the lot. It's very nice to now be seeing clumps of 20 some Cybertrucks in the parking lot, but we can extrapolate from that to what current production is and is not.

And it is not full production, not even a sizable fraction of it.

 

[Jamessmooth007]

My wife paid her $100 reservation fee for a Cybertruck in February 2022 (almost 2 years ago). Based on what we have learned about how to decipher RN numbers, there are more than 3 million orders ahead of her. I keep reading that there are about 2 million reservations, but that does not agree with the RN numbers. She will probably be too old to drive it by the time her number comes up, or said another way, her number is likely to come up before her RN number comes up. I am a stock holder in Tesla and owned a 2021 model y and now a 2023 model Y. I have watched Elon/Tesla work miracles, but I doubt that even quantum theory can resolve this problem. It is unfortunate that manufacturing will most likely take many years to satisfy the current number of reservations. One might think this is a wonderful dilema for Tesla, but it really isn't.

I’d Be shocked if Tesla can convert even half those reservations into actual orders.

 

[HaulingAss]

I’d Be shocked if Tesla can convert even half those reservations into actual orders.

Before the delivery event, I estimated a conversion rate of around 25%. Now I think it will be closer to 20% but it will take longer to fill those orders than I previously thought. It will be at least two years.

But new car buyers with reservations only comprise a tiny sliver of Tesla's addressable market for the Cybertruck. New orders are what will fuel sales and production growth, not reveal day reservations or the reservations that came in the following days and weeks.

That's how it is for every Tesla model, initial reservations never amount to but a tiny fraction of total sales over time.

 

[CyberGus]

I believe that 100% of my reservations will convert to sales.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

If 2M Cybertruck reservations and a 20% “take rate” are accurate:

400,000 real Cybertruck buyers and 1.6M cancelled reservations.

But in your heart you don’t believe that 20% number because they only asked non-reservation holders … meaning who ‘did’ they ask, people who came to the showrooms or people on the street?

 

[Jager]

My guess is that the conversion rate of pre-production reservation holders will be somewhere between 10 and 20 percent.

How fast the ramp will happen is anyone's guess - including Tesla's. But there are a number of feasible scenarios, I think, where Tesla moves a fair number of CT's in 2024. More towards the the second half, of course. But Elon's comment about hitting full production in 2025 suggests they'd need to make pretty good progress in 2024.

Unlike a lot of you guys, I didn't place my order until six weeks after the reveal. I'm sitting at 113,210xxx, a bit over 400K vehicles down the list. But if the conversion rate is as low as I expect, I think there's a reasonable case for me sitting in it a year from now. And it wouldn't shock me if it's earlier even than that.

What will be interesting is once actual production vehicles start hitting the street and we start to see in-depth reviews and more and more public exposure. Not the several-hour quick impressions that Hagerty and Marques were allowed, but honest-to-god multi-day, deep-dive reviews. I think Tesla might very well end up seeing a new tranche of orders coming in - of which buyers will have a very high conversion rate after they see how remarkable this vehicle is.

The counterpoint to my hopeful optimism of getting my CT in 2024 is the argument that although the initial conversion rate of present reservation holders is likely to be low, I expect we'll see that number tick up as those very positive reports from reviewers and everyday drivers starts to sway many of those who fell off the fence after hearing the pricing and range numbers. That newfound enthusiasm might not bode well for those of us further down the queue.

I also think we'll eventually see price reductions; and range increases as the challenged 4680 ramp continues to bear fruit. But I'm doubtful we'll see either of those things until the CT ramp is near maturity. So 2025 or 2026 for those things.

 

[pricedm]

Despite our occasional grumbling most of us here are fans.

Exactly!

I could not afford a Model X until 8/31/2023, when the price decreased to $80k and became eligible for tax credits. "Overnight" the Model X went from unattainable for me to $67,500 after Fed/CO tax credits. Yes, I'm a big fan of decreasing commoditiy prices plus numerous factors which resulted in the curent $80k price for a Model X with Ultra Red or what ever one's favorite colors is.

If I didn't have a low reservation number on the Cybertruck I would have canceled my 9/1 Model Y delivery and instead shifted my order to a Model X. I was up late into the night debating my decision. But since I could not justify owning two $80k cars for myself, the Model Y was purchased to hold me over until I can order the Cybertruck.

 

[Arctic_White]

Before the delivery event, I estimated a conversion rate of around 25%. Now I think it will be closer to 20% but it will take longer to fill those orders than I previously thought. It will be at least two years.

But new car buyers with reservations only comprise a tiny sliver of Tesla's addressable market for the Cybertruck. New orders are what will fuel sales and production growth, not reveal day reservations or the reservations that came in the following days and weeks.

That's how it is for every Tesla model, initial reservations never amount to but a tiny fraction of total sales over time.

I have a different take. Before prices were revealed (aka original prices), I thought 50% at best conversion rate.

With newer prices, I am of the opinion that less than 10% will convert. However, it will be offset by an increase in demand from those who did not put their deposit down.

Either way, the Cybertruck will be sold out for several years and those that are just placing their orders/deposit in today likely won't be able to get one until 2027.

 

[davelloydbrown]

I have a different take. Before prices were revealed (aka original prices), I thought 50% at best conversion rate.

With newer prices, I am of the opinion that less than 10% will convert. However, it will be offset by an increase in demand from those who did not put their deposit down.

Either way, the Cybertruck will be sold out for several years and those that are just placing their orders/deposit in today likely won't be able to get one until 2027.

I agree with the 10-20% conversion rate, however at these prices you are going to burn through the rich early adopters pretty fast and end up with a demand profile similar to the MS and MX - 100 k per year combined.

 

[Arctic_White]

My guess is that the conversion rate of pre-production reservation holders will be somewhere between 10 and 20 percent.

How fast the ramp will happen is anyone's guess - including Tesla's. But there are a number of feasible scenarios, I think, where Tesla moves a fair number of CT's in 2024. More towards the the second half, of course. But Elon's comment about hitting full production in 2025 suggests they'd need to make pretty good progress in 2024.

Unlike a lot of you guys, I didn't place my order until six weeks after the reveal. I'm sitting at 113,210xxx, a bit over 400K vehicles down the list. But if the conversion rate is as low as I expect, I think there's a reasonable case for me sitting in it a year from now. And it wouldn't shock me if it's earlier even than that.

What will be interesting is once actual production vehicles start hitting the street and we start to see in-depth reviews and more and more public exposure. Not the several-hour quick impressions that Hagerty and Marques were allowed, but honest-to-god multi-day, deep-dive reviews. I think Tesla might very well end up seeing a new tranche of orders coming in - of which buyers will have a very high conversion rate after they see how remarkable this vehicle is.

The counterpoint to my hopeful optimism of getting my CT in 2024 is the argument that although the initial conversion rate of present reservation holders is likely to be low, I expect we'll see that number tick up as those very positive reports from reviewers and everyday drivers starts to sway many of those who fell off the fence after hearing the pricing and range numbers. That newfound enthusiasm might not bode well for those of us further down the queue.

I also think we'll eventually see price reductions; and range increases as the challenged 4680 ramp continues to bear fruit. But I'm doubtful we'll see either of those things until the CT ramp is near maturity. So 2025 or 2026 for those things.

Well said.

Tesla is known to make constant improvements, so I have little doubt that the range would remain static as the battery chemistry improves.

However, because I believe that the demand for the Cybertruck will far outpace the supply, we will not see any meaningful price reduction until 2027 at the earliest.

Maybe I'm just saying this (to make myself feel good and) to prepare myself to shell out $100K+ when my order is ready.

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