Share your “Plan B” if the CT is priced in the stratosphere

[Cyber1qhorsey]

My Ford Expedition is wearing out. So, if the CT is out of the question, in 2024 the price and tax incentives for a 'Y' are lookin pretty good!

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[Mini2nut]

Another Model Y price drop this week. The Performance Y has never been cheaper…

Model Y – Long Range & Performance are $2K cheaper
The Model Y Long Range and Model Y Performance are both now listed for $2,000 less than they were earlier today, with the Model Y Long Range going for $48,490 and the Model Y Performance going for $52,490 on Tesla’s website.

Previously, the models started at $50,490 and $54,490 respectively.

The change comes days after Tesla introduced the cheapest Model Y the US has seen, the new Model Y Rear-wheel drive, which starts at $43,990. That model was not subject to today’s $2K price drop, and remains at the same price it was introduced at earlier this week.

 

[HaulingAss]

I have a Plan B is case Tesla prices the 2024 Cybertruck in the clouds. Here are the vehicles that I also have deposits on as a backup. Please share yours:

Kudo's to all in this thread who get it. To the rest, I would recommend getting with the program. There are two problems with thinking it's possible that Cybertruck will be priced in the stratosphere and other EV trucks can function as the backup plan:

1) Tesla would have Cancelled the Cybertruck program the minute they saw they couldn't make the truck competitive with gas trucks. If they can't sell it in high volumes, it can't be profitable and that's not how Tesla rolls. Mark my words, the Cybertruck will be an excellent value in the truck market, particularly the two-motor 300+ mile range version.

2) The focus on the pricing of alternative EV trucks. The real problem here is availability. Sure, legacy auto talks a big talk when it comes to EVs, but they don't have the ability to produce any of these trucks in high volumes, and they won't until at least 2028, at the earliest. Sure, the few they produce they have to sell at prices low enough that they can move them, but that will never be all that low because a low volume EV truck can be sold at a premium, even though the legacy manufacturer still won't be able to make a profit due to low volumes.

The real problem with low volume is that you won't be able to get one without paying a premium. That means it will cost just as much as a Cybertruck with superior abilities. Low volume production of a desireable product means not everyone who might want one will be able to get one. And the basic laws of supply and demand means it will not be as good of a value as a high-volume product.

For those who doubt that legacy auto can't build EV trucks in high volume, I recommend you look into it a little deeper. Both GM and Ford have said EV profitability is somewhere out near 2030. It's not sustainanable to build them in high volume until they can at least break even or make a small profit. Also, look at all the battery factory contruction that has been indefinitely delayed this year. That precludes any of these vehicles going into high production.

Tesla is the only one that has an efficient operation, from the design of their vehicles, to the factory construction and layout, to the supply chain, to the sales and delivery arm, and to their overall corporate efficiency. To the last point: Legacy auto has an expensive legacy bureaucracy that is is as wide and deep as the Grand Canyon and filled with overpaid people adding nothing of value to customer. And don't get me started on advertising spends! The new vehicle buyer has to pay for those ads if the manufacturer is to remain a going concern.

Tesla, on the other hand, is a lean, mean production machine, with just enough highly competent people at the top to make it all happen. Sometimes less is more, particularly if you are one of the ones paying for it. And, make no mistake, these costs are built into the price of every vehicle sold. There is no way legacy auto will displace the sales of their most profitable segment, ICE trucks, by pumping out EV trucks in high volumes (even if they had the supply chains to make it happen). Even though they will price the few EV trucks they do produce at a loss, they will not be a good value and they will not be available in any meaningful way, not to the millions of people who want an EV truck.

 

[Coolbreeze704]

Kudo's to all in this thread who get it. To the rest, I would recommend getting with the program. There are two problems with thinking it's possible that Cybertruck will be priced in the stratosphere and other EV trucks can function as the backup plan:

1) Tesla would have Cancelled the Cybertruck program the minute they saw they couldn't make the truck competitive with gas trucks. If they can't sell it in high volumes, it can't be profitable and that's not how Tesla rolls. Mark my words, the Cybertruck will be an excellent value in the truck market, particularly the two-motor 300+ mile range version.

2) The focus on the pricing of alternative EV trucks. The real problem here is availability. Sure, legacy auto talks a big talk when it comes to EVs, but they don't have the ability to produce any of these trucks in high volumes, and they won't until at least 2028, at the earliest. Sure, the few they produce they have to sell at prices low enough that they can move them, but that will never be all that low because a low volume EV truck can be sold at a premium, even though the legacy manufacturer still won't be able to make a profit due to low volumes.

The real problem with low volume is that you won't be able to get one without paying a premium. That means it will cost just as much as a Cybertruck with superior abilities. Low volume production of a desireable product means not everyone who might want one will be able to get one. And the basic laws of supply and demand means it will not be as good of a value as a high-volume product.

For those who doubt that legacy auto can't build EV trucks in high volume, I recommend you look into it a little deeper. Both GM and Ford have said EV profitability is somewhere out near 2030. It's not sustainanable to build them in high volume until they can at least break even or make a small profit. Also, look at all the battery factory contruction that has been indefinitely delayed this year. That precludes any of these vehicles going into high production.

Tesla is the only one that has an efficient operation, from the design of their vehicles, to the factory construction and layout, to the supply chain, to the sales and delivery arm, and to their overall corporate efficiency. To the last point: Legacy auto has an expensive legacy bureaucracy that is is as wide and deep as the Grand Canyon and filled with overpaid people adding nothing of value to customer. And don't get me started on advertising spends! The new vehicle buyer has to pay for those ads if the manufacturer is to remain a going concern.

Tesla, on the other hand, is a lean, mean production machine, with just enough highly competent people at the top to make it all happen. Sometimes less is more, particularly if you are one of the ones paying for it. And, make no mistake, these costs are built into the price of every vehicle sold. There is no way legacy auto will displace the sales of their most profitable segment, ICE trucks, by pumping out EV trucks in high volumes (even if they had the supply chains to make it happen). Even though they will price the few EV trucks they do produce at a loss, they will not be a good value and they will not be available in any meaningful way, not to the millions of people who want an EV truck.

Great points. Another to consider is their lithium refinery will drive battery costs down even further. OEM's can't even produce a battery cell without partnering let alone extract and refine their own battery materials.
The big money pours in as their ecosystem and software is adapted down the road much like Apple has done.
The future is bright for those that are invested in Tesla. It kills me to read post from members saying they plan on selling their Tesla shares to buy their CT. IMO that is insane. Sell a stock that is just beginning its rise on the S curve to buy a depreciating asset. If you can't pay cash for the CT take a darn 7% loan and your Tesla stock over that 5 year loan period will be 4X (minimum) what it is now.

 

[TirNaOg]

Model Y AWD.

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

1. We've done this before.
2. Tesla has never hiked prices by 40% before.
3. Inflation has not been 40% over the last four years.
4. Tesla would have had to been planning for two to four years of 3% inflation to do their fiduciary duty.
5. Commodity prices are back down.
6. Interest rates are up.
7. Car prices are all back down to or near 2019 prices.
8. Tesla isn't at risk of not being profitable.

This is aggravating to listen to.

-Crissa

Hahaha gotcha, you should not end a sentence with a preposition, in writing at least (one extra in item 4 as well, when no one is looking)

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

My plan B is a Ford Maverick Lariat Hybrid. Quite a joy ride. Driving it every day.

 

[Cyber_Dav]

My plan B is a Kia EV9 (assuming it isn't priced astronomically, too).

I currently have two Sienna minivans (his & hers) so this will be the closest to what I have, but BEV.

Plan C could be a Model Y, I just don't like sedans.

 

[Crissa]

Hahaha gotcha, you should not end a sentence with a preposition, in writing at least (one extra in item 4 as well, when no one is looking)

My grammar is impeccable.

I just find the situations your English teacher hated.

-Crissa

 

[scottf200]

2. Deposit on Silverado EV. Are they going to make any?

Yes,

https://pressroom.gm.com/gmbx/us/en...l/Pages/news/us/en/2023/oct/1003-gmsales.html

 

[datechboss101]

I only have 3 plans, just depending on what the MSRP is by the time I have to order it:

Plan A: Cybertruck.
Plan B: Honda Civic Type R.
Plan C: Convince my father to trade his piece of crap Model Y in to make Cybertruck more affordable.

 

[scottf200]

Things leaning me toward the CT even with its flaws.
- We road trip a fair amount and go to places that still have v2 (posted GIF on this a few times)
- FSDb has many flaws but works good-enough at L2 without road restrictions. (have some vision issues so appreciate the 360 camera on all those ADAS vehicles looking out)
- Would like to not have to worry much about the outside getting dinged or where I'd park (tight trailheads, any busy parking lots, etc, etc)
- Tesla has sufficient service centers and mobile now

Alternatives
- next generation T3 from Ford (I think their BlueOval TN/KY vehicle will be WELL thought-out)
- Rivian R1T or R1S but have concerns about their number/locations of service (drive trains are proven to be efficient)
- Silverado EV (this vehicle is well thought out from close to the ground up)

 

[Crissa]

Yes,

https://pressroom.gm.com/gmbx/us/en...l/Pages/news/us/en/2023/oct/1003-gmsales.html

Their target was '50k BEV' not '50k Ultium'. Their Bolts alone will get them over the top.

Who knows how many Equinox they'll ship?

-Crissa

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