Since the release all I can think about is the Cybertruck. 🤔

[davelloydbrown]

you can go see now. Look at the Vin number build blend in the other thread. 20 tri motors to 200 duals

The only reason this surprising you, is because you’re assuming that they can build tri motors at the same pace as dual motors, so why not.

which just means your assumption is faulty

you need to take a chill pill dude

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[cvalue13]

you need to take a chill pill dude

apologies

seemed *you* were coming in plenty hot with swipes like “you don’t have to be a genius”

I understand why you might be turning down your burners now, but let’s not gaslight

 

[Deleted member 8371]

When I ordered my M3 in 2016 I was also a tesla stock owner and I remember my wife telling me I would never get a tesla. Well I got it in 2018.

I put a reservation down for a CT on the day after the reveal in 2019 and to be honest I was a little taken aback by the reduction of specs and increase in price of the tri. Like most people who reserved a tri, I will be switching to a duel, and this will probably set me back 1-2 years.

I am still a tesla stock owner and I am retired now and plan on selling 1/4 of my tesla stock to purchase the duel. I would like the stock to get back to at least $350, which will probably happen over the next two years. According to my calculation there will probably be only about 20 k people purchase the beast, however I would wager the margins are close to 50% for this version.

I have a 2017 S with all the freebies attached to it, under 200000. I also did well in the market with Tesla and Dogecoin, So the luck I had will pay the taxes due on the money made and buy me a fully loaded BEAST. I really wanted the 500 range so I can travel a lot without range issues, we all know that the real mileage will be approx 10% to 15% less at the top and the bottom to help keep the batteries in good shape, I think I will put a solar generator in the back, maybe even a high end quite propane or gas generator just in case, tie it down as if I have a hybrid

 

[PilotPete]

But if you want to statistically ensure a sooner delivery, selecting the tri is the last thing you should do

Mathematically, maybe. Assuming a 10:1 build ratio, the one that will have the longest delay will depend on the order ratio v the build ratio. If the order ratio is 5:1, then it's going to take twice as long to get a beast. However, if the price delta causes order to go 20:1, then it's going to be much faster to get a beast. But wait, there is yet another variable!

We are assuming that the build ratio will NOT change, regardless of the order ratio. Could Tesla easily change the build ratio if the order ratio gets way off? (Honest question. I assume so, but have absolutely zero intel on possibility) IF they can, then they would probably (in my non-Musk level mind) change the build ratio to generally match the order ratio. That would also mean that as time passes, and possibly the prices change, and the order ratio changes, that they can then adjust the build ratio.

You tell me please. You got better intel than I do.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

It’s been days since the release and all I can think about is the cybertruck.

I pre-ordered the single motor RWD but now I want the BEASTMODE to speed up the process cause 2025 ain’t cutting it fir me… I know 100K is nuts but fuck it lol

Talk to me… I want to know who pre-ordered and what do you think about the truck all around?

What were you thinking about the 4 years before delivery day? My life has been consumed with Cybertruck since December, 2019.

 

[cvalue13]

Mathematically, maybe. Assuming a 10:1 build ratio, the one that will have the longest delay will depend on the order ratio v the build ratio. If the order ratio is 5:1, then it's going to take twice as long to get a beast. However, if the price delta causes order to go 20:1, then it's going to be much faster to get a beast. But wait, there is yet another variable!

We are assuming that the build ratio will NOT change, regardless of the order ratio. Could Tesla easily change the build ratio if the order ratio gets way off? (Honest question. I assume so, but have absolutely zero intel on possibility) IF they can, then they would probably (in my non-Musk level mind) change the build ratio to generally match the order ratio. That would also mean that as time passes, and possibly the prices change, and the order ratio changes, that they can then adjust the build ratio.

You tell me please. You got better intel than I do.

i dont think this blend is a strategy pulled out of a hat.

instead it's a strategy regarding cyberbeast production constraint, specifically. assuming cells are no longer a bottleneck (?), it would be about drivetrain-specific parts***

it's for that reason, on that assumption, I say that - best guess (but still a guess) - ordering dual is the path to faster delivery.

because if even more people order cyberbeast, it would mean not that Tesla makes more, but that you are in a line that is both moving slow and getting longer

at which point, even if the cyberbeast parts constraint relaxes incrementally, it means you're still in the slow/long line relative to the dual



***that said, even and despite a parts constraint, I believe for volume and efficiency reasons Tesla would rather build more duals than tri's because both (A) there are more buyers, income-wise, for dials, and (B) halo products must retain halo/exclusivity to continue fetching the premium (and plenty of people shell out for the premium because of exclusivity, not merely on brute desire for the stats ... which stats alone do not command a 20K premium for a lot of people, absent the exclusivity symbol)

 

[davelloydbrown]

i dont think this blend is a strategy pulled out of a hat.

instead it's a strategy regarding cyberbeast production constraint, specifically. assuming cells are no longer a bottleneck (?), it would be about drivetrain-specific parts***

it's for that reason, on that assumption, I say that - best guess (but still a guess) - ordering dual is the path to faster delivery.

because if even more people order cyberbeast, it would mean not that Tesla makes more, but that you are in a line that is both moving slow and getting longer

at which point, even if the cyberbeast parts constraint relaxes incrementally, it means you're still in the slow/long line relative to the dual



***that said, even and despite a parts constraint, I believe for volume and efficiency reasons Tesla would rather build more duals than tri's because both (A) there are more buyers, income-wise, for dials, and (B) halo products must retain halo/exclusivity to continue fetching the premium (and plenty of people shell out for the premium because of exclusivity, not merely on brute desire for the stats ... which stats alone do not command a 20K premium for a lot of people, absent the exclusivity symbol)

As the battery is the same in the AWD as the beast do you not admit that there is more profit in selling the beast.

 

[cvalue13]

As the battery is the same in the AWD as the beast do you not admit that there is more profit in selling the beast.

I do not, necessarily, from an all-in consideration

if you can produce 3 AWD a month, but only 1 Cyberbeast a month, then selling AWD creates far more profit per month by volume

Also, if due to exclusivity/demand, you can command $20K premium for a Cyberbeast if you only produce 1 a month, but you can only command a $15K premium for Cyberbeast exclusivity if you sell 2 a month, then the all-in profitability of your blend continues to favor the above 3AWD-to-1Cyberbeast per month blend

All of this is before you dive into the nuances of how volume on the production line may have other downstream financials consequences on the production line capex/opex entries on the balance sheet



There is far more at play in corporate financials and market segmentation strategy then the pure equation of:

[[MSRP for vehicle X] - [cost to build vehicle X]] vs [[MSRP for vehicle Y] - [cost to build vehicle Y]]

 

[davelloydbrown]

I do not, necessarily, from an all-in consideration

if you can produce 3 AWD a month, but only 1 Cyberbeast a month, then selling AWD creates far more profit per month by volume

Also, if due to exclusivity/demand, you can command $20K premium for a Cyberbeast if you only produce 1 a month, but you can only command a $15K premium for Cyberbeast exclusivity if you sell 2 a month, then the all-in profitability of your blend continues to favor the above 3AWD-to-1Cyberbeast per month blend

All of this is before you dive into the nuances of how volume on the production line may have other downstream financials consequences on the production line capex/opex entries on the balance sheet



There is far more at play in corporate financials and market segmentation strategy then the pure equation of:

[[MSRP for vehicle X] - [cost to build vehicle X]] vs [[MSRP for vehicle Y] - [cost to build vehicle Y]]

As the only difference between the beast and the AWD is an extra motor and some software as far as I can see does it really make sense that one extra motor is going to be such a limiting factor?

As the early production is obviously going to be constrained, doesn't it make sense to sell those few CT for the most profit/ truck?

 

[cvalue13]

As the only difference between the beast and the AWD is an extra motor and some software as far as I can see does it really make sense that one extra motor is going to be such a limiting factor?

As the early production is obviously going to be constrained, doesn't it make sense to sell those few CT for the most profit/ truck?

the entire driveline is different. And new.

if you don’t buy that there’s a production constraint (in addition to exclusivity halo) around the beast, then no I can’t persuade you of anything - because my fundamental assumption is different from yours

as to whether you believe the assumption, go look at the pre-production build blend to date (~20 tri motors to several hundred dual motors), and the VIN registrations for production units Tesla has made to date for through end of 2023 (another ~20 tri for >100 dual motors), the the foundation order email info (duals to deliver between Dec 23 and March 24, vs tri’s sometime in 2024)

if your assumption is correct (eg all else is equal so make the higher priced units first), not only does it not explain the build blend to date and ordering timelines being conveyed, one would expect the opposite build blend to date)

 

[Bkb13]

• cells are not the only tri motor parts constraint(meanwhile, this works fine, as halo products remain halo by being limited in supply)
• thinking they have a 50% margin leads me to believe you’re having cocktails (and have been over-served)
• meanwhile, to catch up, go review this thread (esp the second post) to catch the vibes
• then go review this thread, showing Tesla’s currently planned build blend through end of 2024 (20 tri motors to 200 duals)

then note that this 20-200 build blend is for the Foundation series, and if you think the ultra-exclusive, invite-only, build blend doesn’t indicate the vibes for the general public, then there’s no helping you

Don’t you mean Tesla’s current plan build blend through the end of 2023?

 

[UnRich1]

It’s been days since the release and all I can think about is the cybertruck.

I pre-ordered the single motor RWD but now I want the BEASTMODE to speed up the process cause 2025 ain’t cutting it fir me… I know 100K is nuts but fuck it lol

Talk to me… I want to know who pre-ordered and what do you think about the truck all around?

I’m driving my wife insane, but that’s not new. I’ve been doing it for 42 years now. I ordered the truck within three days of the initial announcement. I figured that I am about 157,000 in line. I frequently go online looking for new information on production and any update on an actual delivery estimate. I really thought that we would be able to do the actual configuration after the official release. I originally ordered the single motor by mistake. I tried to upgraded my order to the tri motor version, but couldn’t, so for a few days, I had two trucks on order. As long as it’s taking to fill the orders, I probably should’ve kept both. The Beast will probably be worn out by the time the rear wheel drive one is available ;-)

 

[cvalue13]

Don’t you mean Tesla’s current plan build blend through the end of 2023?

yes

is it not 2024 already!!?!

been doing this a lot lately

 

[firsttruck]

The AWD trim at $49k was a no-brainer.

At $79k, it will require some… brains

Agree, AWD trim at $49k was a no-brainer
(a no-brainer metaphorically only of course. No-brainer meaning requires little or no thought)

However with the new price $79K may have to literally sell (or work off/ work to death) - arm, leg, leg, kidney, liver (oops, only have one of those, skip liver), maybe a couple more fingers.

$79K Cybertruck AWD DM has Steer-by-Wire, right?
Should be able to steer/u-turn/park with a hand that has only a thumb & two other fingers

Dang, how am I going to operate the accelerator and brake
Voice control?? Hmm, voice control of brake might be problematic.

 

[CYBER CHESKO]

What were you thinking about the 4 years before delivery day? My life has been consumed with Cybertruck since December, 2019.

Trust me I got posters, drawings and videos full of Cybertruck

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