Ogre
Well-known member
- First Name
- Dennis
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2021
- Threads
- 164
- Messages
- 10,719
- Reaction score
- 26,998
- Location
- Ogregon
- Vehicles
- Model Y
Because we have literally nothing else to compare it to. We’ve watched Tesla do this less than 5 times.I don't know why we are comparing the Model Y ramp. Shanghai ? Germany.. that's a terrible example... and Austin ?
My feeling is it’s better to be conservative and set ourselves up for positive surprises.
I absolutely think this is possible. I suggested as much last year. But the Model Y ramp was a lot slower than I figured, on pretty much every aspect. Factory openings were delayed; Production start was slower than expected. Ramp started with lower volume and scaled slower. On top of that, 4680 production ramp has been a lot slower. Production of the 4680 Model Y has been lethargic. This time last year we expected Model Y would be cranking out 5,000 per week by now, 4680 production would be firing on all cylinders, and Cybertruck production would be started.The Cybertruck will start and get to 1000 within a handful of weeks.. not Months.
Pretty much everything which Tesla has done since I ordered my Cybertruck has been slower than I estimated and slower than the impression I got from management. So I’m using the slower baseline.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s all been super impressive, no other company would have been able to pull this off. But I haven’t seen any big positive surprises in terms of timelines or ramp speed.
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