The end will come with a whimper not a bang

[Ogre]

Hydrogen's problem is much more than transitioning.

You need all new & expensive infrastructure (pipelines, tanks, station pumps, etc) because hydrogen gas would leak out all over the place in existing natural gas pipelines & storage because hydrogen is a much smaller molecule.

Billions of dollars in hydrogen infrastructure that will only be used by large trucks would not be cost effective when even if the infrastructure was free the hydrogen gas fuel would cost at least twice as much per unit.

This is a very different sort of use-case.

This isn’t about the semis that go up and down the mountain, it’s about the excavators and other heavy equipment which stays on the mountain for months at a time. You can’t drive those down to the charging station between shifts.

The whole point is servicing vehicles where infrastructure is extremely difficult or impractical.

I’m not a hydrogen fan by any means. But there are some cases where you need to deliver gigawatts of power at a time to a remote place. Batteries aren’t necessarily a great fit for that.

Another possibility is run a power line up along the road and keep a megapack on site charged up. Then when the vehicles need juice they can just tap the battery which can deliver power quickly.

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[firsttruck]

This is a very different sort of use-case.

This isn’t about the semis that go up and down the mountain, it’s about the excavators and other heavy equipment which stays on the mountain for months at a time. You can’t drive those down to the charging station between shifts.

The whole point is servicing vehicles where infrastructure is extremely difficult or impractical.

Yes, servicing those vehicles might be difficult but hydrogen infrastructure will be even more expensive at low production volumes.

I’m not a hydrogen fan by any means. But there are some cases where you need to deliver gigawatts of power at a time to a remote place. Batteries aren’t necessarily a great fit for that.

Another possibility is run a power line up along the road and keep a megapack on site charged up. Then when the vehicles need juice they can just tap the battery which can deliver power quickly.

Megapacks will be made in high volumes so will have good economy of scale in their production.

 

[firsttruck]

Another possibility is run a power line up along the road and keep a megapack on site charged up. Then when the vehicles need juice they can just tap the battery which can deliver power quickly.

Tesla Giga Nevada images hint at potential mobile “Megacharger” solution
By Maria Merano
Posted on January 10, 2022
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-mobile-megacharger-giga-nevada-photos/

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Tesla deploys new mobile Supercharger powered by Megapack instead of diesel generators
By Fred Lambert
Nov. 29th 2019
https://electrek.co/2019/11/29/tesla-mobile-supercharger-megapack/

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Tesla Megapack Mobile Charging Station returns to SLO
Tesla once again deployed the Megapack trailer containing 10 Superchargers to the Madonna Inn Supercharger Station in San Luis Obispo, CA
Dec 1, 2019
StevenMConroy

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[Sirfun]

That Supercharger in San Luis Obispo gets hit hard during heavy traffic events like holidays. It's between Los Angeles and the Bay Area on a very lonely stretch of road. BTW, The Madonna Inn is Awesome!!!

 

[Crissa]

Hydrogen won't be more expensive at low production, because it can be 'made' anywhere.

The advantage to it is you send a truck out, and it just makes it whereever. You can add storage without adding heavy, expensive batteries.

I don't know it'll work out. But trucks and trains ran on bunker oil and diesel which weren't available at the local station for the majority of time we were using ICE to power our transportation. Being unique didn't raise the cost that much because big machines tend to leave from very few ports in comparison.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Hydrogen won't be more expensive at low production, because it can be 'made' anywhere.

The advantage to it is you send a truck out, and it just makes it whereever. You can add storage without adding heavy, expensive batteries.

I don't know it'll work out. But trucks and trains ran on bunker oil and diesel which weren't available at the local station for the majority of time we were using ICE to power our transportation. Being unique didn't raise the cost that much because big machines tend to leave from very few ports in comparison.

-Crissa

Crazy idea, but around here there are a lot of big reservoirs. I could see a logging company getting a permit to drop a giant solar array adjacent or even floating in a reservoir which processes the hydrogen on site.

I’m apparently big on random conjecture today.

 

[Berno]

I feel like there will continue to be applications for petroleum and ICE vehicles that are, preferable and desirable, for a while. Things like long range jets, remote work sites, and classic cars/planes. The planet would probably be pretty happy if 90% of the power grid and 90% of transportation were run on renewables. Save the oil reserves we have for other stuff that petroleum is good for like fertilizers and plastic.

 

[JBee]

It's weird that no one has mentioned biofuels on this thread so far. Don't you have those in the USA?

If you are doing logging you normally end up with timber waste that can be used to run woodgas, which in turn can be co-fired in diesel engine to run the machinery. Woodgas can be made on vehicle or onsite.

The other "big" one is Biogas (biomethane). There you can simply replace all natural gas supplies in devices and infrastructure straight out with out having to convert anything. You can co-fire it in gasoline and Diesel engines, you can store it onsite and in vehicle, you can run it through off the shelf methane fuel cells at nearly 50% efficiency, you can ship it through gas pipelines, and use pipeline as a peak load storage buffer (in WA we have nearly a weeks supply in the pipe), the natural gas pipeline grid here is 3-4 times the size of the power grid in capacity and already goes past the mines here too.

The best thing is though is that it can be made from Biowaste. That means unlike ethanol or bio-diesel you don't need to use the food part of the crop to make it, just whats left. It also reduces climate forcing by 20times that of CO2 because it captures and coverts methane that would normally increase atmospheric heat.

And the left over output from the generation exhaust can be so clean you can use it for CO2 enrichment for plant growth in greenhouses, the liquid waste it produces is a high nutrient fertiliser and soil improving mulch for plants and you can charge for biowaste disposal which you use as fuel.

Full closed cycle solar powered biomass production with atmosheric CO2 extraction and organic fertiliser and food production, as a baseload peak capable generation plant with storage. All with little to no coversion costs from existing natural gas equipment.

You can also power Starship with it straight out.

Wait a minute, this sounds like a brilliant plan for a business....

Since 2007...

 

[Ogre]

It's weird that no one has mentioned biofuels on this thread so far. Don't you have those in the USA?

If you are doing logging you normally end up with timber waste that can be used to run woodgas, which in turn can be co-fired in diesel engine to run the machinery. Woodgas can be made on vehicle or onsite.

One of the problems with diesel equipment is it often runs the motor extremely inefficiently.

If you burned the biofuel to create power then used that power to run your equipment, you could make a system that is always running at maximum efficiency

 

[DarinCT]

BEV this, BEV that, y'all/yous are being optimistic. "Electrified" can include range extenders, hybrids, and plug-in hybrid. There will still be internal combustion engines in cars till sticker price parity exists.

BEV will not rule the roads until other factors are taking care of as well, which I think we can all agree on (hopefully).

More importantly, top line revenue is the basis for all stock calculations. Going all-electric will bring down their stock. ICE manufacturers must maintain their stock prices and revenue in order to access credit markets among other things while transitioning. ICE will keep fighting death like my grandfather-in-law, surviving through surgeries he wasn't supposed to, eating PB&J and drinking PBR everyday (!).

I've got a apple pie filling in cinnamon roll strudel calling my name so I won't even go into the towing scene, imported vehicles, status symbols, and the VW bug.

 

[Ogre]

More importantly, top line revenue is the basis for all stock calculations. Going all-electric will bring down their stock. ICE manufacturers must maintain their stock prices and revenue in order to access credit markets among other things while transitioning. ICE will keep fighting death like my grandfather-in-law, surviving through surgeries he wasn't supposed to, eating PB&J and drinking PBR everyday (!).

Legacy auto will certainly try to hold back the tide.

Eventually the cost of batteries will crush ICE entirely. Right now batteries cost around $135 per kWh for electric vehicles. In 10 years that will be $50-60 pre kWh. Well before then everything will be upside down for ICE.

 

[firsttruck]

Hydrogen won't be more expensive at low production, because it can be 'made' anywhere.

Not talking about low production of hydrogen gas.
I am talking about how many small hydrogen generation/storage/compression/pumping system will be made.

Sure anywhere you have water, electricity and this home/individual business size hydrogen generation/storage/compression/pumping system.

Just the safety requirements of this hydrogen generation/storage/compression/pumping system is going to be expensive.

Due to the high cost of the hydrogen generation/storage/compression/pumping system and the 2-4 times greater electricity cost to run the system, there will be low demand for these systems.
Production scale will not be millions like home EV electric charging stations.

I don't know it'll work out. But trucks and trains ran on bunker oil and diesel which weren't available at the local station for the majority of time we were using ICE to power our transportation.

But there are huge differences in infrastructure needed to transport and store hydrogen gas vs liquid fossil fuels. Even with liquid fuels there are many applications that use diesel instead of gasoline for safety reasons because gasoline becomes gaseous much more easily and has higher explosion risk.

In the old days they might have put a usable quantity ( 1-10 gallons) of diesel or bunker oil in a standard wooden bucket they got from the town general store.

For hydrogen you need enclosed container that can hold hydrogen gas under pressure.
Much more elaborate and expensive than a wooden bucket.
Because of the lower energy density of the gas and larger volume tank and tank weight could a human realistically carry a large enough volume hydrogen tank to power a large vehicle a reasonable distance?

 

[Ogre]

But there are huge differences in infrastructure needed to transport and store hydrogen gas vs liquid fossil fuels. Even with liquid fuels there are many applications that use diesel instead of gasoline for safety reasons because gasoline becomes gaseous much more easily and has higher explosion risk.

In the old days they might have put a usable quantity ( 1-10 gallons) of diesel or bunker oil in a standard wooden bucket they got from the town general store.

For hydrogen you need enclosed container that can hold hydrogen gas under pressure.
Much more elaborate and expensive than a wooden bucket.
Because of the lower energy density of the gas and larger volume tank and tank weight could a human realistically carry a large enough volume hydrogen tank to power a large vehicle a reasonable distance?

You’ve gone sideways here.

We’re talking about fueling large equipment. These things get filled up with hundreds of gallons at a time, not a bucket full. I’m sure they drive up to the truck which is filled with diesel and pour it out of a nozzle.

Filling them up with hydrogen would be little difference. Instead of an open tank, you’d have a sealed pressurized tank and the delivery truck would have a compressor.



Honestly, I‘m not sure hydrogen is the solution for that either. Maybe it’ll just be a truck they drive to the bottom of the mountain with a megapack permanently mounted.

Doesn’t really matter, heavy equipment is going to be a tough nut to crack and will likely go long after everything else either way.

 

[HaulingAss]

Heavy equipment seems like it would be a good fit for big hydrogen fuel cells. Either a big one on site that recharges the battery powered equipment, or individual cells on each piece of equipment could work.

I’m kind of picturing a truck that drives down to a hydrogen station once a day and tops off then generates power on demand to top off everything else or refill hydrogen in the other equipment.

The big problem is transitioning.

No, the problem is paying for the fuel and equipment to fuel with hydrogen. Fossil fuel hydrogen is even dirtier in the total emissions than if they just used diesel. This is due to the multiple levels of inefficiencies in the hydrogen processes. And it will cost the end users about four to eight times as much. Why would anyone pay much more just to increase emissions?

And green hydrogen would be even more expensive than fossil fuel hydrogen. So where is the advantage? The only one I can think of is the logging trucks exhaust would not be toxic but logging trucks typically operate away from population centers anyway. Eventually they will be battery electric because it will be cheaper than hydrogen or diesel.

 

[Cyberman]

One by one, companies are quietly stopping development of ICE vehicles, ICE engines, and ICE transmissions.

https://media.subaru.com/pressrelease/1881/117/statement-subaru-sti

Volvo and Hyundai have both stopped new engineering and design on ICE entirely.

It’s likely most car brands are on their last ICE generation. I’m sure they will keep the current designs in circulation for at least a few years and there might be a generation of some cars which are nearly complete that get pushed out the door. But it’s likely we won’t see another generation of Corvettes launched.

Which makes me sad because GM is truly bad at EVs. I would love to see a great electric Corvette released.

Trucks are likely at least a few years behind. Might be another generation or two of each. Maybe.

A lot of slithering and writhing's gonna be happening, too.

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