The end will come with a whimper not a bang

GnarlyDudeLive

Well-known member
First Name
Darin
Joined
Aug 26, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
373
Reaction score
842
Location
Chicago
Vehicles
2004 F350 Dually (Tri-CT reservation)
Occupation
Database Administrator
Country flag
[

I’m in Oregon. Logging is everywhere. They set up a logging operation on the side of a mountain serviced by forest roads. The only way they are going to be able to service the equipment up there with power is if they run a temporary power line up the mountain. Those things might have multi-Gigawatt cells in them.

If you are logging high up on a mountain you might be able to get your truck back up with the power that regen braking puts into your battery on the way down
Drives up the mountain empty using battery power. Drives down the mountain fully loaded via regen. Never needs to be charged. Pretty cool.


https://www.popularmechanics.com/te...6/worlds-largest-electric-vehicle-dump-truck/

 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
144
Messages
8,973
Reaction score
22,229
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
That was my point, they should continue to run on diesel until there are viable solutions in sufficient quantity.
That is my point as well.

I think I’ve been clear I’m not in love with any particular solution and that it’s a big problem which will be tough to crack.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
100
Messages
11,759
Reaction score
19,423
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Just so you know, power lines can't be just dropped in the ground like data lines. Not only are they more dangerous, they need to shed heat and also much heavier.

And in forests, any undergrounding requires removing the trees all the way to the roots.

-Crissa
 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
144
Messages
8,973
Reaction score
22,229
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
I am assuming a sustainable logging practice (not clear cutting, etc).
This is Oregon. Decades ago, the government gave away massive chunks of the land to private companies. “Sustainable logging” around here means they mow it down and replant. In the National Forests and BLM land there are somewhat more sustainable practices.

Now here is a thought... put in a clearing, run permanent powerlines to it. Setup solor covered area, tall enough to park heavy equipment under. The power lines can help provide power while the logging is operational, but when not, the powerlines help feed the solar into the grid.
After 10 years any solar installation is going to be worthless around here. Trees just grow too fast. If the trees don’t overgrown it, they will be covered in blackberries and poison oak. Stuff just grows fast here. That’s why I suggested something which floats on the reservoirs above.



Not being pessimistic. I like the idea of temporary lines and solar installs quite a bit. It’s just not a great area for this kind of setup. The artificial reservoirs would be a great spot to set up though, there is already electrical infrastructure there.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
100
Messages
11,759
Reaction score
19,423
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Solar panels might make sense sitting over temporary sheds and clearcut areas.

Like, trailers of them that are just shoved in a corner of the field and folded out or atop space-frame temporary buildings. You only need them while the drag-line base is being used, anyhow. When you're done, you fold them up and drag them to the next site.

-Crissa
 
Last edited:


HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
1,716
Reaction score
3,262
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 Ford F-150, 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance
Country flag
That is my point as well.

I think I’ve been clear I’m not in love with any particular solution and that it’s a big problem which will be tough to crack.
I guess I was confused when you brought up using diesel to generate electricity to make hydrogen because no one mentioned that.

I disagree it will be a tough to electrify heavy equipment - it will happen naturally in due time due to better economics even without government mandates and incentives. The capital costs of existing equipment will want to be utilized to the end of life but it's not going to technically difficult to electrify heavy equipment. A lot of equipment like cranes and backhoes already have solid iron counter-weights weighing many tons. Those will become batteries as was the case with the forklift I drove back in 1980 that had batteries as ballast.

As far as charging, high voltage lines criss-cross the country and the smaller lines in the range of 55 kV are especially numerous. That's more than is needed to DC fast charge even large battery banks. These lines are not any more expensive to install than regular residential distribution.
 

Dusty

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Jul 29, 2021
Threads
6
Messages
447
Reaction score
1,397
Location
Lorton, VA
Vehicles
2023 Model Y Performance
Occupation
Creator
Country flag
I can see ICE engines going out with one final death throe and lingering for decades as SUPER cheap transportation for people who live in old apartment/condos, and cities with brownstones. Apartment complexes I lived in decades ago are still right where they were, with (I assume) very little infrastructure rehab. Places like that aren't about adding chargers for residents in their 30th/60th year of existence. Landlords in places like that aren't spending a dime to put in a charger when they often won't even replace carpeting or properly fix plumbing. What I see...

Legacy auto that didn't pivot in time for EVs will concede the bulk of the market over the next 10 years, and gasoline demand will wind down. They'll shift to online sales killing traditional dealers with the remainder servicing the last wave of ICE commuter cars. Some legacy OEMs will use their 80+ years of ICE building to make the wildy cheap and minimalistic ICE cars they knew how to build 20 years ago, but didn't. Think of a car with a very cheap single screen interior and an extremely cheap low-maintenance, low-output ICE engine. These cars would sell at a fraction of the price EVs. So someone who would normally drive a 25 year old clapped-out ICE car, that they have to gently massage to life every day, would just buy a hyper economy-ICE that only costs $5k-$6k new and uses gas that's now $2 a gallon. Dropping gas demand will make fuel cheaper and cheaper and people who don't live with easy charger access (renters or paycheck-to-paycheck) will use these ICE variants until EVs charge 100s of miles per minute, resembling current gas refuel times. Having an ICE car made within the last 10 years becomes problematic due to maintenance/repair costs. Fuel stations remain, all running on a shoestring budget for the remaining ICE car wave.

They'll go on until, eventually, people have to buy petrol by the barrel and store it at their house to fill their ICE project car if they have one. Then EVs will simply replace the remaining ICE cars as remnants will fall into disrepair and finally disappear.
 
OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
144
Messages
8,973
Reaction score
22,229
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
I can see ICE engines going out with one final death throe and lingering for decades as SUPER cheap transportation for people who live in old apartment/condos, and cities with brownstones. Apartment complexes I lived in decades ago are still right where they were, with (I assume) very little infrastructure rehab. Places like that aren't about adding chargers for residents in their 30th/60th year of existence. Landlords in places like that aren't spending a dime to put in a charger when they often won't even replace carpeting or properly fix plumbing. What I see...
As gas stations get less and less profitable, they are going to vanish from any location where real estate is valuable. Few people will invest in new stations to replace any which get removed.

Gas prices will get weird. As demand drops, prices will get weirder. Economies of scale change, incentive to drill new wells drops. Incentive to build new refineries or even repair existing ones drops. Lots of weird economics around shrinking businesses.

Used ICE cars might be super cheap, but running them may well be quite expensive.
 

firsttruck

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Threads
106
Messages
1,863
Reaction score
2,818
Location
mx
Vehicles
none
Country flag
As gas stations get less and less profitable, they are going to vanish from any location where real estate is valuable. Few people will invest in new stations to replace any which get removed.

Gas prices will get weird. As demand drops, prices will get weirder. Economies of scale change, incentive to drill new wells drops. Incentive to build new refineries or even repair existing ones drops. Lots of weird economics around shrinking businesses.

Used ICE cars might be super cheap, but running them may well be quite expensive.
Also maintenance or repair of ICE specific parts that can wear-out, damaged in accidents or stolen.

belts
high temp water hoses
spark plugs
spark plug wires
oil filters
fuel filter
high temp motor oil used in ICE
pollution control sensors
intake air flow sensors
oxygen sensors
fuel injectors
mufflers
catalytic convertors (contain expensive metals: rhodium, platinum and palladium).
automatic transmission repair
piston rings
belt driven water pumps
Timing belt
alternator


How many of these suppliers will go out of business once they lose volumes from the parts supplied for new cars?

Some of these items were already outrageous expensive.

How much will the remaining suppliers raise prices?

Maintaining an ICE with new parts will be much more expensive.
Used parts might be cheaper in short run while people dump ICE vehicles but eventually prices for used parts will increase too as supply of used part dwindles too.
 
Last edited:

Timoj

Well-known member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Apr 13, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
439
Reaction score
471
Location
Australia
Vehicles
Most boring Model Y
Country flag
It's still easier to power them with a generator on a truck than build the generator into the equipment.

Why this changeover hasn't happened years ago since electric motors have been superior to hydraulics for about twenty years is baffling.

Industrial momentum, I guess.

-Crissa
Big business likes recurring revenue streams… hydraulic systems need more parts and repair than electric……
 


OP
OP
Ogre

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
144
Messages
8,973
Reaction score
22,229
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Big business likes recurring revenue streams… hydraulic systems need more parts and repair than electric……
These strategies work well for nursing an existing business along, but eventually competition moves in without that long revenue tail. This is more-or-less what Tesla has done to legacy auto.
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
1,716
Reaction score
3,262
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 Ford F-150, 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance
Country flag
They'll go on until, eventually, people have to buy petrol by the barrel and store it at their house to fill their ICE project car if they have one. Then EVs will simply replace the remaining ICE cars as remnants will fall into disrepair and finally disappear.
Gasoline has a frighteningly short shelf life (and is highly flammable) so I wouldn't expect to see too much stockpiling of barrels of gasoline in peoples garages. That's just too much trouble, too much time and money, for it to make good sense. Much better to just unplug your EV and go. The stragglers will be people who don't mind pain and humiliation.
 

Cyber

Active member
Joined
Sep 16, 2020
Threads
3
Messages
30
Reaction score
37
Location
US
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Country flag
I don't see my tractors going anywhere, anytime soon.
 

Dusty

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Jul 29, 2021
Threads
6
Messages
447
Reaction score
1,397
Location
Lorton, VA
Vehicles
2023 Model Y Performance
Occupation
Creator
Country flag
Gasoline has a frighteningly short shelf life (and is highly flammable) so I wouldn't expect to see too much stockpiling of barrels of gasoline in peoples garages. . . stragglers will be people who don't mind pain and humiliation.
True. But, they've been making gasoline for over 100 years. There's no shelf stable gasoline because it's never been in their best interest to make it. But, I'll just go ahead and say, I'm pretty much biased towards never giving the oil industry the benefit of the D.

When demand for gas eventually hits the bottom of the toilet, and the only vehicles that use it are in museums/car collector garages-think of people like Jay Leno. I'm sure they'll miraculously develop a shelf stable variant. Propane and fuel oil are flammable yet have home storage systems. So, making a home gasoline storage system is easily something that can be done when the market emerges.
 

swengl

Well-known member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Sep 9, 2021
Threads
6
Messages
189
Reaction score
390
Location
United States
Vehicles
Model S
Country flag
It might take a few more years, but I'm excited to see what develops in terms of electrifying farm tractors (and making them affordable/convenient/powerful enough to make folks want to replace diesel models). There are a few big players (John Deere, Fendt) and newer companies (like Monarch, Forth) that have products available (and under development). We have a 35 yo John Deere diesel tractor that I would love to eventually replace with an EV model.

 
Last edited:

 
CYBERBACKPACK
Top