Tri-Motor Delay?

FutureBoy

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Speculation, for sure, but I think the new batteries would be my obvious first guess. And since Elon referenced initial CT's having around 300 mile range, I would go as far as to suggest that their previous hope of having the new battery size starting manufacturing at the end of the year is being pushed back about 6 months.
Batteries would have been my first guess also. Recently I've been seeing reports of a shortage that was causing Tesla batteries to be nickel constrained. With the most recent news of Tesla working with that nickel mine that was bought by the employees though my hope is that the nickel issue will be at least partially resolved.

With the Plaid+ vehicle, there are a number of things that could be bringing about a delay. For one thing, it is far from being the most important vehicle in the Tesla lineup. While it is great for marketing and bragging rights, it is not going to be the long-term great money maker that will really solidify the company as the juggernaut that it is.

My guess on the Plaid+ is that there are other things that are distracting the company from getting the vehicle fully finished.
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The Model S Plaid + has been delayed to "Mid-2022".

https://electrek.co/2021/03/11/tesla-delays-model-s-plaid-plus-mid-2022/

According to the article (and common sense), the Plaid+ will be the first S to use the new batteries. I suspect the tri-motor CT will also use the new batteries (Elon has said they would be in the CT and Roadster), while the Dual Motor may not - and thus explain the differences in range. With the delay in Plaid +, I'm assuming it's probably because the batteries aren't ready for full production, and that would also impact the CT3. This goes along with Elon's recent interview with Joe Rogen where he said the "initial model" would have "around 300 miles" of range. I said at the time that I got a less than hyped vibe off of Elon when it came to the CT - there was no "500+ miles, it will be insane!" kind of response. I think it's largely due to challenges getting the new batteries up to speed.

Reservations of Dual's should be happy though, with no Tri's competing for early production time. With further delays in batteries, maybe even Singles will hit production early.
I have read that 4680 battery production is ahead of schedule.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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they have never said what models will get what batteries.
Sorry, but that isn't true. At battery day (you can look up for the graphic) they showed a graphic that makes it quite clear which vehicles will get which batteries, and the CT is slated for the high nickel batteries. They didn't differentiate models so a viable assumption is that models do not differentiate.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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We know that Elon is anxious for the CT to be manufactured. He may not be so anxious about the MSP+. For now, getting the factory built is the biggest thing in the way of getting CTs out. They already have a factory for MSPs. As such I am not sure whether the two vehicles can be compared (except maybe by the batteries). They probably have enough 4680 capacity at Fremont for the MSP+s.
 
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TheLastStarfighter

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Sorry, but that isn't true. At battery day (you can look up for the graphic) they showed a graphic that makes it quite clear which vehicles will get which batteries, and the CT is slated for the high nickel batteries. They didn't differentiate models so a viable assumption is that models do not differentiate.
You're allowed to assume whatever you want. What I said is still true, you said it right here. They have said a certain battery will be in the CT. They have also said a certain battery will be in the Model S. They have never said that ONLY a certain battery will be in either, and we know for a fact that the Model S will not be only using the new battery. We also know that the Model Y will be getting new features/batteries in some markets but not all. We know the Model 3 uses different batteries in different markets.

Based on all of these things, we know that Tesla has not said that the exact same battery tech will be in all models, and that Tesla uses different batteries in different models of the same car; as such, different models of CT may have different batteries. Nothing has been said that rules this out.
 

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You're allowed to assume whatever you want. What I said is still true, you said it right here. They have said a certain battery will be in the CT. They have also said a certain battery will be in the Model S. They have never said that ONLY a certain battery will be in either, and we know for a fact that the Model S will not be only using the new battery. We also know that the Model Y will be getting new features/batteries in some markets but not all. We know the Model 3 uses different batteries in different markets.

Based on all of these things, we know that Tesla has not said that the exact same battery tech will be in all models, and that Tesla uses different batteries in different models of the same car; as such, different models of CT may have different batteries. Nothing has been said that rules this out.
I think this is as clear as it gets. CTs get the high-nickel cathode. None of the sedans will get it except the plaid+. That isn’t an assumption of mine.

CF39FF80-E191-430B-B1F3-A4866D403A70.png
 
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TheLastStarfighter

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I think this is as clear as it gets. CTs get the high-nickel cathode. None of the sedans will get it except the plaid+. That isn’t an assumption of mine.

CF39FF80-E191-430B-B1F3-A4866D403A70.png
Impossible, this graphic doesn't say the Plaid+ will get the high nickel cathode, therefore it will never get the high nickel cathode.
 

Crissa

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Assuming that different trims get different chemistry is adding complexity and making assumptions.

Assuming they'll do what they said is not.

Impossible, this graphic doesn't say the Plaid+ will get the high nickel cathode, therefore it will never get the high nickel cathode.
That is probably true.

-Crissa
 
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TheLastStarfighter

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Assuming that different trims get different chemistry is adding complexity and making assumptions.

Assuming they'll do what they said is not.


That is probably true.

-Crissa
Different trims do get different chemistry though. Plaid and Plaid+ are using different batteries.
 

FutureBoy

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From what I understand, there are multiple possibilities regarding which vehicles will get which batteries. The initially stated plan is what was shown on battery day. Since then though there have been a number of conflicting statements and conditions that may or may not modify the battery day plan.

For instance, there has been a nickel shortage that caused some speculation that different levels of vehicles might end up with different batteries. Then there was news of Tesla trying to address the nickel shortage in a couple different ways.

Ultimately we are not going to know which vehicles are going to get which batteries till they start coming out of the factory. Tesla is a very resourceful and dynamic company. As conditions change, they will be able to modify what they are doing to get the most advantage possible. That may include using different battery chemistry if needed as long as the claimed specifications of the vehicle are not harmed. They might modify which level of vehicles or even which vehicles get produced at any time.

With all these unknowns, there is no definitive way to know for certain what vehicles will be produced, when or with what batteries they will be produced. But given what I’ve seen of Tesla so far, whatever choices are made, the vehicles being produced will be coming out of the factories faster than expected, with more quality than expected, meeting better specifications than were initially announced, and with a flair of specialness not seen in other companies vehicles.

When will I get my CT? I doubt if Elon even knows yet. But it will be as soon as physically possible. What batteries will it have? I don’t know or even care as long as the specs match or better the announced specs that I ordered from. And I’m pretty certain that will be the case.

We are all chomping at the bit to get more info because we still have a while to wait for our trucks. Hopefully we will get a little more info along the way so we don’t all go crazy.
 

Crissa

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Yeah, whatever happens, Tesla will shift based upon available resources. Look at the pricing changes over the last two months: They made plans, changed to adapt, then changed again as the situation changed. An entire manufacturer, willing to be as agile as a dealer marking up or down as the market forces tug sales.

-Crissa
 
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TheLastStarfighter

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We don't know what battery plaid will use when plaid+ comes out.

You're still adding complexity where there wasn't any before.

-Crissa
I'm not adding complexity. I'm just not dismissing it.
 

Dids

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Sorry, but that isn't true. At battery day (you can look up for the graphic) they showed a graphic that makes it quite clear which vehicles will get which batteries, and the CT is slated for the high nickel batteries. They didn't differentiate models so a viable assumption is that models do not differentiate.
That slide was about batteries, not vehicles. In other words it doesn't say that all Cybertrucks get high nickel. It does say that High nickel batteries go into vehicles like Cybertruck and semi but. I think they moved semi up and need the batteries.
 
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