Tri-Motor Delay?

OP
OP
TheLastStarfighter

TheLastStarfighter

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 6, 2020
Messages
347
Reaction score
840
Location
Canada
Vehicles
Dodge Challenger
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
That slide was about batteries, not vehicles. In other words it doesn't say that all Cybertrucks get high nickel. It does say that High nickel batteries go into vehicles like Cybertruck and semi but. I think they moved semi up and need the batteries.
Exactly. And that's a good point about the Semi. The head of Tesla Automotive just moved to Tesla Heavy Trucks. I think they're trying to ramp up Semi production asap. They're testing it now. So I think the Plaid+ and CT Tri will get pushed back about 6 months until they have the battery supply running smoothly. Not a big deal.
Advertisement

 

Dids

Well-known member
First Name
Les
Joined
Dec 21, 2019
Messages
1,141
Reaction score
2,233
Location
Massachusetts
Vehicles
04 Tacoma, 21 Cybertruck
Occupation
Self
Country flag
Exactly. And that's a good point about the Semi. The head of Tesla Automotive just moved to Tesla Heavy Trucks. I think they're trying to ramp up Semi production asap. They're testing it now. So I think the Plaid+ and CT Tri will get pushed back about 6 months until they have the battery supply running smoothly. Not a big deal.
No. No. no! CT is not pushed back. 4680 plaid model s is. This means they got the high nickel batteries working and the production machines are being used to produce batteries for semi and high nickel ct3. Maybe CT2 gets high nickel also...
 

firsttruck

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 25, 2020
Messages
773
Reaction score
944
Location
mx
Vehicles
none
Country flag
Assuming that different trims get different chemistry is adding complexity
If you have all the parts except batteries to make another 10s or 100s of thousands of Cybertrucks, since battery is required, in that situation the complexity is infinite.

Using alternative battery (LiFePO4) that is cheaper, made of abundant materials, and is available, is much less complex than infinity (no completed product).

Yesterday, VW had Power Day (VW's version of Tesla Battery Day). Looks like VW too concluded that LiFePO4 is now good enough to be used in vehicles. Only Tesla & VW have announced they will use LiFePO4 in many vehicles.
 
OP
OP
TheLastStarfighter

TheLastStarfighter

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 6, 2020
Messages
347
Reaction score
840
Location
Canada
Vehicles
Dodge Challenger
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
No. No. no! CT is not pushed back. 4680 plaid model s is. This means they got the high nickel batteries working and the production machines are being used to produce batteries for semi and high nickel ct3. Maybe CT2 gets high nickel also...
Well the CT3 is "delayed", we know that. Elon said the "initial" CT would have 300 miles of range, after previously talking about the CT2 and 3 being available to start. I use "delay" loosely, as they've never fully committed to anything, other than hoping some deliveries would start at the end of this year. But we can take from this that the CT3 (and 500 miles of range) won't be available until some time in 2022. Combine this with the Plaid+ being delayed to mid 2022, and I'm speculating that it's because they won't have the battery capacity for them. The vibe I'm getting is that only the Plaid+ and the CT3 will use the new style batteries to start; the regular Plaid and CT1 and 2 will use the older style batteries. I could be totally wrong, I get that, but that's what discussion is for.
 

Luke42

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 10, 2020
Messages
650
Reaction score
1,137
Location
Illinois, USA
Vehicles
GMC Sierra Hybrid (2-Mode)
Country flag
Yesterday, VW had Power Day (VW's version of Tesla Battery Day). Looks like VW too concluded that LiFePO4 is now good enough to be used in vehicles. Only Tesla & VW have announced they will use LiFePO4 in many vehicles.
In my paper EV design exercises (daydreaming with some engineering rigor), LiFePO4 batteries look like an ideal option a lot of the time.

LiFePO4s are durable, long-lasting (high cycling), and have great surge-current abilities. Not relevant here, but the nominal cell voltage is also convenient as upgrades for 12V/24V/36V/48V battery systems. They're so durable and stable that a BMS failure probably won't kill the pack and, even if it does, it probably won't catch fire -- in other words, they're very safe batteries too.

LiFePO4 can be too expensive or too heavy for some applications. Tesla's economies-of-scale should fix the costs, and using LiFePO4 for the short-range variants of Tesla vehicles probably takes care of the weight issue.

Anyway, LiFePO4s are more durable, safer, and longer-lasting than Lithium Ion batteries, just so long as you can accept the range/weight/costs tradeoffs. For a short-range Tesla, those tradeoffs likely work out and create a long-lasting vehicle.
 

Jhodgesatmb

Well-known member
First Name
Jack
Joined
Dec 1, 2019
Messages
1,320
Reaction score
1,582
Location
San Francisco Bay area
Vehicles
Lexus Rx450H Tesla Model 3
Occupation
Researcher
Country flag
do you know... what type of people... frequent this forum? 😢
Clearly you don't believe him do you? He has no data whatsoever. It is pretty clear that Tesla is late on the semi and has a lot of motivation to get some of them out the door, but 6 month delay on the CT? That is beyond speculation. Any delays on the CT will most likely be associated with the 8-ton gigapress that no one has ever seen rather than on a dearth of 4680 cells. They only have a single 6-ton gigapress at GigaAustin so far, and they will probably have between 3-6 of them. They at least have pads for 3, haven't even begun on the pads for 3 more, and haven't built any in the most likely spot for the 8-ton presses. In the meantime, they already have pads in place for the battery factory. And we need to add to all this that they have probably been stockpiling 4680 cells from Fremont for almost a year, certainly more than 6 months. Tesla would sure run out of their 4680 cells quickly on semi trucks if that is all they use them for. Is there some idea on how many semis have been ordered?
 

FullyGrounded

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 18, 2020
Messages
324
Reaction score
327
Location
blah
Vehicles
blah
Country flag
The Plaid+ was delayed, but we don't know if it's a reason that would also delay the tri-motor CT.

It's probably not the batteries.

-Crissa
I would say the S Plaid+ may be delayed exactly for the Trimotor Cybertruck to get it's full run in. Think about it, 3 motors (both), 500+ miles... both... think they are sharing parts? I do, at least some. Not every component of a truck has to be hardcore to be truck related - sure, the battery enclosure can be stronger, take more abuse from rocks, etc on the underside and sides, etc. But, I'd say the S Plaid+ will also be getting 4680s - and what about the Semi... There is so much overlap, and so many new models this and next years, that Elon is about to have a crap-storm in his lap. peace
 

FutureBoy

Well-known member
First Name
Reginald
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
Messages
1,383
Reaction score
2,032
Location
Kirkland WA USA
Vehicles
Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Private Lending Educator
Country flag
There is so much overlap, and so many new models this and next years, that Elon is about to have a crap-storm in his lap
I don't see any of these vehicles as crap. Perhaps he will have a storm of awesomeness. I don't doubt that it will get somewhat stormy. But oh what an awesome result that will come out of that storm.
 

FullyGrounded

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 18, 2020
Messages
324
Reaction score
327
Location
blah
Vehicles
blah
Country flag
I don't see any of these vehicles as crap. Perhaps he will have a storm of awesomeness. I don't doubt that it will get somewhat stormy. But oh what an awesome result that will come out of that storm.
Not the vehicles, just the lack of planning for all this chaotic time, when this was using that... now, it's this, that, and the other all using that. It's going to get crappy quick, then you can figure in that everyone is building EVs now, and then the repairs will come in needing that part too... oh, it's going to get crappy soon... NOT because of crappy Tesla's... or any other crappy EVs - not sure how you read that into my statement. peace
 

soonerdy

Member
Joined
Mar 5, 2021
Messages
23
Reaction score
28
Location
Oklahoma
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Country flag
I just put in another tri-motor reservation spending nickels to help out.

Also, this thread inspired me to buy the penny stock SNNAF, nickel mining company in Nevada.
 

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Messages
268
Reaction score
305
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
1.) I am going to bet Tesla has done a fairly good job at optioning nickel and lithium. While new players may be constrained more, I think Tesla has isolated themselves in the near term.

2.) I don't think Tesla has fully committed to high nickel batteries in all CT models. It may be required for the Tri, but seeing how the structural battery has evolved to a single layer either loose packed or dense packed, I think it is possible to use the Fe based batteries in the dual and single and if they have better cycle characteristics I am all for it. Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought Tesla could mix and match some of the battery day upgrades with different chemistries, so they could make a 4860 with Fe, better anodes etc.

3.) I hate to burst peoples bubbles, but I don't see Tesla providing much more range than advertised by model. They will included their software upgrades over the last couple years on the release and the actual packs will be smaller. Like they are doing with the Semi. With the knowledge gained over the last 2 years they don't have to be conservative anymore.

4.) Still hoping for a Long Range Dual/Single. Maybe 2023 when I actually get mine.
 
OP
OP
TheLastStarfighter

TheLastStarfighter

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 6, 2020
Messages
347
Reaction score
840
Location
Canada
Vehicles
Dodge Challenger
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
1.) I am going to bet Tesla has done a fairly good job at optioning nickel and lithium. While new players may be constrained more, I think Tesla has isolated themselves in the near term.

2.) I don't think Tesla has fully committed to high nickel batteries in all CT models. It may be required for the Tri, but seeing how the structural battery has evolved to a single layer either loose packed or dense packed, I think it is possible to use the Fe based batteries in the dual and single and if they have better cycle characteristics I am all for it. Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought Tesla could mix and match some of the battery day upgrades with different chemistries, so they could make a 4860 with Fe, better anodes etc.

3.) I hate to burst peoples bubbles, but I don't see Tesla providing much more range than advertised by model. They will included their software upgrades over the last couple years on the release and the actual packs will be smaller. Like they are doing with the Semi. With the knowledge gained over the last 2 years they don't have to be conservative anymore.

4.) Still hoping for a Long Range Dual/Single. Maybe 2023 when I actually get mine.
Someone asked a while back about the payload rating being the same for all models, with the speculation that the CT3 should have a lower rating because of the larger battery weight. Using Tesla's battery day reveal info, I did some math based on their proposed improvements and if the CT2 used the old-style batteries and the CT3 uses the new ones, that would essentially account for the improved range with minimal increased weight. That, in combination with the Plaid and Plaid+ relationship of different batteries/range, has lead me to believe that the CT2 and 3 will be similar. Motortrend had said that the CT3 would have a double stacked battery, but i'm not sure that's the case (anymore). I do think that in time the CT2 will likely get the CT3 battery tech and longer range as well, but probably not for a year or two.
 
Advertisement

 
Advertisement
Top