Wall Street analysts estimate 65K Cybertruck sales in 2025, but Troy expects 21K

[DJAlan2000]

The key issue is that Tesla may not be making much, if any, profit from an $80,000 Cybertruck. There may not be a "fair profit margin".

Tesla’s other “premium” products, the S/X were introduced long ago, when the EV market was young and there was little competition. The S/X historically sold in higher volumes and at higher prices than they do today. I’m sure that Tesla recovered all their initial costs for S/X development and manufacturing years ago, so even if the S/X only sell in low volumes today, they still generate a net profit.

The CT has an unconventional design and uses unconventional manufacturing techniques; it was not based on any existing Tesla vehicles. It cost a great deal of money to develop that completely new design, and then to construct a completely new factory capable of building it. Tesla probably needs to sell the CT in relatively high volumes and at relatively high prices in order to recover those high initial costs.

So Tesla constructed the CT manufacturing line with capacity of over 125,000 CTs per year. Last year, they sold less than 40,000, and that was with discounts and incentives that are cutting into profits. So all that expensive investment may not be paying off.

First of all, if they are making a PROFIT on the Cybertrucks, that beats everyone else out there selling EV-Trucks who are all taking LOSSES on every one they sell... Yet, for some reason, that's not hurting them so much?

Second, they didn't START with a line making 125,000 trucks, in fact it's just now up to being able to make that many. Remember the first few months they were only getting a few thousand, then they ramped up into 5 digits middle of last year and now they are up to (almost) being able to manufacture trucks in the 6 digit levels...

BUT, it's still outselling ALL OTHER EV TRUCKS COMBINED and is like, what, 4th in sales of ANY EV model?

I think that's just fine myself.

AND, if they ever get a battery around 200 kWh in it, that would be HUGE!! I think they may be planning that for 2026... Isn't the battery in there now (123 kWh) not even 'full' of cells?

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[dalton108]

First of all, if they are making a PROFIT on the Cybertrucks, that beats everyone else out there selling EV-Trucks who are all taking LOSSES on every one they sell... Yet, for some reason, that's not hurting them so much?

Second, they didn't START with a line making 125,000 trucks, in fact it's just now up to being able to make that many. Remember the first few months they were only getting a few thousand, then they ramped up into 5 digits middle of last year and now they are up to (almost) being able to manufacture trucks in the 6 digit levels...

BUT, it's still outselling ALL OTHER EV TRUCKS COMBINED and is like, what, 4th in sales of ANY EV model?

I think that's just fine myself.

AND, if they ever get a battery around 200 kWh in it, that would be HUGE!! I think they may be planning that for 2026... Isn't the battery in there now (123 kWh) not even 'full' of cells?

Yes, but as has been explained, they were only making a “profit” because of rubes like us paying ($120k) and playing games like delaying delivery of cyber beasts until the third quarter so that the trucks with the highest margin were all stacked up to create this data point.

Unless someone can show that that is a false assertion, the “profitability” seems to have been a shell game. Which is very disappointing, if true.

 

[YDR37]

BUT, it's still outselling ALL OTHER EV TRUCKS COMBINED and is like, what, 4th in sales of ANY EV model?

Based on the most recent EV sales data, from 4Q 2024, the Cybertruck was the top-selling EV pickup. However, It did not outsell all other EV pickups combined:

12,991 Tesla Cybertruck
10,703 Ford F-150 Lightning
2,412 Rivian R1T
2,176 Chevrolet Silverado EV
1,401 GMC Sierra EV

In 4Q 2024, the Cybertruck was the #7 best selling EV:

85,506 Tesla Model Y
57,928 Tesla Model 3
18,838 Honda Prologue
18,089 Chevrolet Equinox
16,119 Ford Mustang Mach-e
14,082 Hyundai Ioniq5
12,991 Tesla Cybertruck

For the full year of 2024, the Cybertruck finished at #5, ahead of the Prologue and Equinox, because those two models weren't widely available until late in the year.

 

[GuyV]

Where do you get FSD CT for $72.5k? Apples to oranges... not to mention other perks that came with $100k version. Yes, it's cheaper now, but not $27.5k cheaper if comparing apples to apples.

Sure it's apples to oranges, but one costs a whole lot more out of pocket most people will substitute one for the other most of the time. Who doesn't constantly balance beef vs pork vs chicken? (Yeah, I know, rich people, but a small percent of the market.)

 

[scottf200]

AND, if they ever get a battery around 200 kWh in it, that would be HUGE!! I think they may be planning that for 2026... Isn't the battery in there now (123 kWh) not even 'full' of cells?

That "not even full of cells" myth has been debunked various times. They left some space intentionally and it wasn't to they could put taller cells in.

In fact, the existence of the optional range extender battery pack, which sits in the truck's bed rather than inside the main battery pack, suggests that Tesla planning this other ways to increase range. They have taken non-refundable downpayments for this. (originally $500 but now $2000).

Below is from the website a few minutes ago. Mid-2025.

 

[GuyV]

There's nothing wrong with a premium vehicle selling in smaller numbers, that's been a successful model forever. The issue is just that it doesn't match what Tesla told investors the CT would be. With talk of having production capacity of 100k-250k CTs a year, it seems like Tesla greatly overestimated sales. The only way Tesla wasn't very wrong, which is a big business issue where accurate forecasting is important, is if they bring price down.

Without the wrong forecasting and excess manufacturing, then CT would be a success. It's the best selling EV truck, that sounds pretty good. But compared to Tesla's own expectations, sales have missed the mark greatly.

Well, it is line with their original expectations, but that all went out the window with the massive number of reservations. The reservations never meant sales, but they definitely represented real interest and awareness. Tesla has tried to monetize that but its cost, underdelivering on specs and Musk's image problems have not led to the kind of success to justify those higher volumes. To the extent they can fix those things they have plenty of opportunity for sales.

 

[Macgreiner]

They can accelerate takeup and still make the 80k profit threshold without a price reduction by simply certifying the $7500 tax credit.

 

[GuyV]

The key issue is that Tesla may not be making much, if any, profit from an $80,000 Cybertruck. There may not be a "fair profit margin".

Tesla’s other “premium” products, the S/X were introduced long ago, when the EV market was young and there was little competition. The S/X historically sold in higher volumes and at higher prices than they do today. I’m sure that Tesla recovered all their initial costs for S/X development and manufacturing years ago, so even if the S/X only sell in low volumes today, they still generate a net profit.

The CT has an unconventional design and uses unconventional manufacturing techniques; it was not based on any existing Tesla vehicles. It cost a great deal of money to develop that completely new design, and then to construct a completely new factory capable of building it. Tesla probably needs to sell the CT in relatively high volumes and at relatively high prices in order to recover those high initial costs.

So Tesla constructed the CT manufacturing line with capacity of over 125,000 CTs per year. Last year, they sold less than 40,000, and that was with discounts and incentives that are cutting into profits. So all that expensive investment may not be paying off.

To be fair, they didn't have to construct a completely new factory for it with massive GigaTexas still underutilized.

 

[YDR37]

They can accelerate takeup and still make the 80k profit threshold without a price reduction by simply certifying the $7500 tax credit.

Seems like it should be a no-brainer. Yet it doesn't seem to be happening, and there is no explanation. Must be frustrating for some potential CT customers.

 

[dalton108]

Seems like it should be a no-brainer. Yet it doesn't seem to be happening, and there is no explanation. Must be frustrating for some potential CT customers.

EM has proudly crowed that Tesla doesn’t need the tax incentives and that he wants them to be taken away. How is there “no explanation” in your mind?

 

[YDR37]

EM has proudly crowed that Tesla doesn’t need the tax incentives and that he wants them to be taken away. How is there “no explanation” in your mind?

I have heard multiple theories about the 2025 Cybertruck tax credit situation. And yes, one of them is: "Tesla won't process the tax credit on behalf of its customers because Elon is philosophically opposed to government handouts and wants them gone".

Given that Elon is involved, this doesn't seem totally impossible. However, Tesla is happy to provide the tax credit on qualifying sales of the 2025 Model Y, Model 3, or Model X. So the issue is apparently something specific to the 2025 Cybertruck; it doesn't seem to be about Elon's general political or economic beliefs.

 

[dalton108]

I have heard multiple theories about the 2025 Cybertruck tax credit situation. And one of them is "Tesla won't process the tax credit on behalf of its customers because Elon is philosophically opposed to government handouts and wants them to go away".

Given that Elon is involved, this doesn't seem totally impossible. However, Tesla is happy to provide the tax credit on qualifying sales of the 2025 Model Y, Model 3, or Model X. So the issue is apparently something specific to the 2025 Cybertruck; it's not about Elon's general political or economic beliefs.

I think those other cars already had it because Elon for sometime believed that he could still work with the Biden administration. After he realized that he couldn’t he became hardened on the issue and now sees it as a political and business imperative as I’m sure he spiteful about the monies that Rivian has received.

 

[YDR37]

I think those other cars already had it because Elon for sometime believed that he could still work with the Biden administration. After he realized that he couldn’t he became hardened on the issue and now sees it as a political and business imperative as I’m sure he spiteful about the monies that Rivian has received.

Ironically, 2025 Rivians aren't eligible for the tax credit. The general assumption is that there are too many Chinese components in Rivian batteries, although I don't think Rivian has officially confirmed this.

Another theory is that current Cybertruck batteries are affected by the same issue, and that 2025 Cybertrucks won't get the tax credit until different batteries are available.

 

[dalton108]

Ironically, 2025 Rivians aren't eligible for the tax credit. The general assumption is that there are too many Chinese components in Rivian batteries, although I don't think Rivian has officially confirmed this.

Another theory is that Cybertruck batteries are affected by the same issue.

I know that but they got massive loans/subsidies and Elon’s not happy about it at all.

Again, I’ll keep my own counsel. I’ve got a proven track record, I may not be exactly right, but I’m close.

 

[scottf200]

I think those other cars already had it because Elon for sometime believed that he could still work with the Biden administration. After he realized that he couldn’t he became hardened on the issue and now sees it as a political and business imperative as I’m sure he spiteful about the monies that Rivian has received.

Ironically, 2025 Rivians aren't eligible for the tax credit. The general assumption is that there are too many Chinese components in Rivian batteries, although I don't think Rivian has officially confirmed this.

Another theory is that current Cybertruck batteries are affected by the same issue, and that 2025 Cybertrucks won't get the tax credit until different batteries are available.

ASIDE: there is the ZEV $ & credit angle as well at play it seems.

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