Who is eating crow? Final predictions.

Tinker71

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I have been adamant about a few of my predications. Several have gone against the grain. I will likely eat crow. The design is done and we have another month before we know what we are going to get.

What are some of your final predictions? What will surprise us?

These are a couple of mine from several months ago.

1.) No double stacked battery. Contrary to published information I just can't see a 80mm void in the CT1/2
2.) Single motor CT1 will really have 2 motors but will remain RWD.
3.) Better than advertised range - I said we would get exactly what was offered. Not much more.

These are a couple others that come to mind.

Mirrors? Additional battery options at Q2 re-reveal? Bucket seat option offered? Ability to work with a 3rd party trailer battery? Ability to control some small (5 HP) hub motors on a trailer. Will the battery be upgradable/serviceable? Did they lower the retracted tonneau cover and get a real passthrough? Will we be able to direct charge with solar? Will the tonneau actually have solar generation capacity?

This is just for fun so the nattering nabobs of negativity need not respond. Lay it out there, be bold.





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CybertruckAgent

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I have been adamant about a few of my predications. Several have gone against the grain. I will likely eat crow. The design is done and we have another month before we know what we are going to get.

What are some of your final predictions? What will surprise us?

These are a couple of mine from several months ago.

1.) No double stacked battery. Contrary to published information I just can't see a 80mm void in the CT1/2
2.) Single motor CT1 will really have 2 motors but will remain RWD.
3.) Better than advertised range - I said we would get exactly what was offered. Not much more.

These are a couple others that come to mind.

Mirrors? Additional battery options at Q2 re-reveal? Bucket seat option offered? Ability to work with a 3rd party trailer battery? Ability to control some small (5 HP) hub motors on a trailer. Will the battery be upgradable/serviceable? Did they lower the retracted tonneau cover and get a real passthrough? Will we be able to direct charge with solar? Will the tonneau actually have solar generation capacity?

This is just for fun so the nattering nabobs of negativity need not respond. Lay it out there, be bold.
Mirrors and bucket seat options I see as a given, you maybe able to use cameras as side view mirrors but you can’t replace trailering mirrors with cameras.

I do think the range will be somewhat more than originally estimated, surely with the new batteries they will be able to get more than what was possible 3 years ago.

I don’t see a mid gate happening, but that was never promised.

Also single motor WILL happen, now that f150 has released its pricing no way in heck they will drop the 39k base price. Remember Elon’s focus on beating the f150 in every way,.
 

beeeasybro

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1. I bet delivery will begin this year. But most of us will see ours next year.

2. Solar comes standard!Expandable solar will be an option.

3. Range will surpass expectations.

.... I’m not sure, I’m just so excited to show off my new CT to all my friends that are negative about it and show them just how awesome it really is! 😉
 

Crissa

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1.) No double stacked battery. Contrary to published information I just can't see a 80mm void in the CT1/2
There doesn't need to be a void. The pack could just shift components up or down for the next layer. This is what Aptera is doing for their 1000 mile version. There is ample space under the truck to do this.

2.) Single motor CT1 will really have 2 motors but will remain RWD.
I can't see them doing this. The expense of a FWD unit is pretty high, and adds significant complexity. This isn't like a battery at all.

-Crissa
 

akcoyote

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At this point, I am not sure what to believe about production version CT rumor & speculation.
Personally, I think:
  1. Solar will be an option but not offered for at least a year.
  2. Only a few deliveries this year and those will be to Tesla employees. I think some of us will be waiting at least another 2 years for our CT.
  3. Range will surpass original spec, but not by too much.
  4. Mid gate would be great, but probably not happening till 2023.
  5. Outside mirrors will be required until NHTSA approves cameras. Camera approval probably in 2024.
  6. Single motor CT will indeed be a single rear motor. A second unused motor would be too expensive and wasteful to produce.
  7. Cyberquad will be an option starting about late 2022.
I am probably wrong on at least half of the above, but what the heck.
 
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Tinker71

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There doesn't need to be a void. The pack could just shift components up or down for the next layer. This is what Aptera is doing for their 1000 mile version. There is ample space under the truck to do this.


I can't see them doing this. The expense of a FWD unit is pretty high, and adds significant complexity. This isn't like a battery at all.

-Crissa
1.) The height of the overall battery compartment would need to be 160 mm plus for dual stack or 80 mm plus for single stack. If the standard battery compartment is 160 mm plus there would be empty space filled with honeycomb or whatnot top/bottom/or middle on the CT1/2. It is still a waste in my book. If you are correct which you probably are it gives hope that the CT3 might have range closer to 600 miles.

2.) To clarify RWD is rear wheel drive. The CT1 would still eliminate the front wheel drive and expense and the rear drive train would be pretty consistent across all models with 2 motors. One motor more tuned to higher RPM the other lower. This could mean all the castings are the same for all models with some parts eliminated or shims added if the motors are different sizes. Maybe I am making too big a deal about reducing the number of different castings. IDK.
 

Crissa

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1.) ... If the standard battery compartment is 160 mm plus there would be empty space....
No. The battery pack is a structural part. There would be nothing to create the void with. You will have a different undercarriage for each pack.

2.) To clarify RWD is rear wheel drive.
Yes. They aren't going to do that - AWD is a greater selling point than raw road capacity. Just look at the number of 'you can't do that without 4x' posts for evidence. (...despite the fact I've never had a 4x and did those things.)

I don't disagree that would make a compelling fleet product, though! But because of the battery weight, the greater contact patch of the additional axle is probably better for most cases.

-Crissa
 
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Tinker71

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No. The battery pack is a structural part. There would be nothing to create the void with. You will have a different undercarriage for each pack.


Yes. They aren't going to do that - AWD is a greater selling point than raw road capacity. Just look at the number of 'you can't do that without 4x' posts for evidence. (...despite the fact I've never had a 4x and did those things.)

I don't disagree that would make a compelling fleet product, though! But because of the battery weight, the greater contact patch of the additional axle is probably better for most cases.

-Crissa
Void or unnecessary structural filler on the CT1/CT2 either way it is still a waste of valuable space. You could have a taller cabin or bed in those models. I get it for standardization purposes and maybe increase in I for the depth however the S long range packs aren't double stacked to I am not sure if the that is a driver. I just don't like it. I thought it might be possible to dense pack the single layer for the 500 mile range.

The base model was originally specified as a RWD with a single motor. I am just saying it is possible that the rear axle is powered by 2 motors. Are you predicting an AWD single motor?
 

shocker

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I'd say the question for today is what is Tesla going to delete to keep costs down? And do they really log how much the lumbar support on the passenger seat gets used?
 

rr6013

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I'd say the question for today is what is Tesla going to delete to keep costs down? And do they really log how much the lumbar support on the passenger seat gets used?
Tesla could option CT1
CT1 RWD @ ($40k -1) USD:
Sgl rr motor
Delrin cloth interior
Rubber mats
3 position suspension settings
Tintop roof(ss)
LFP battery cells
Steel wheel hubcapped
Bolt-on mirrors(camera delete)

CT1 RWD+ Options
Dual rr motors
NMA 4680 battery cells
Range boost mode
Blast Pass switch under foot pedal
Leatherette Interior,carpet&convenience gp(courtesy,puddle,
Armor glass roof
Aero Mag wheel
Bio-warfare HEPA
 

firsttruck

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Tesla could option CT1
CT1 RWD @ ($40k -1) USD:
Sgl rr motor
Delrin cloth interior
Rubber mats
3 position suspension settings
Tintop roof(ss)
LFP battery cells
Steel wheel hubcapped
Bolt-on mirrors(camera delete)

CT1 RWD+ Options
Dual rr motors
NMA 4680 battery cells
Range boost mode
Blast Pass switch under foot pedal
Leatherette Interior,carpet&convenience gp(courtesy,puddle,
Armor glass roof
Aero Mag wheel
Bio-warfare HEPA

Please, safety items should never be options. Don't be like Boeing & 737 MAX.
All models should get Bio-warfare HEPA.

Yes, stainless steel roof option at all levels.

Yes, removable side mirrors. Do not bother with installing mirror remote control mechanism (no wires or metal cables) for remote adjust. Make mirrors of the old cheap manual type where if you want to adjust the mirror you roll down the window & stick you hand out. Not actually going to use the manual mirror anyway we have a better solution with cameras.
 

CyberGus

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Since Tesla is resource-constrained, and the Single-Motor trim is only about 7% of reservations, I expect them to delay production into 2024 and beyond until interest has waned. I bet it never even ships.
 

firsttruck

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Since Tesla is resource-constrained, and the Single-Motor trim is only about 7% of reservations, I expect them to delay production into 2024 and beyond until interest has waned. I bet it never even ships.
You can not use reservations as only gauge of real world potential sales.

Any fleet buyer would have only put in reservation of 1 or 2 for evaluation. The hundreds of thousands of fleet orders are not in reservation queue yet. Most fleet buyers do not even know long-range EVs or Cybertruck exist and would not have made any Cybertruck reservation at all yet.

Even though all of us here know Tesla has potentially best truck ever made & Tesla gets a fair amount of publicity most ICE owners were not paying attention to Tesla or Cybertruck.
Do you pay attention to ads & news for stuff you are not yet in the market to buy. People who bought new ICE trucks in 2017 - today probably paid little attention to Tesla stuff since they needed a truck yesterday or now.

In large parts of the southern U.S. where it hardly ever snows, a lot of fleet buyers do not buy 4wd vehicles & paying $10K for something they do not need would probable be a big issue.

Unlike some of the other low priced models Tesla did not produce, there should be a huge market for $40K EV truck.
 
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John K

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There is a lot of unknowns, concerns and hyperbole.

solution, Tesla builds mine first and I tell everyone how great or opportunities for improvement.

win/win
 

Luke42

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