Sandy Munro Analyzes Cybertruck Wrapped as F-150 With Frunk Open: "What We Know & Our Final Predictions"

[ir6ub9]

We only use our 1/2 ton truck to do truck things. In over 13 years we have towed a lot, but only one tow trip exceeded 165 miles. Most "truck things" involved zero towing or local towing.

Towing with a half-ton truck, long distances, is uneconomical because semi-trucks can move so much more at lower cost. The use cases for long-distance towing with a 1/2-ton truck are almost non-existent.

So, can we stop the silly narrative that a 1/2-ton truck must be able to tow long-distances to be viable? Almost no one does that. Any truck person can tell you they wouldn't buy a 1/2-ton truck to tow long-distances.

I always recommend people don't talk about things they know nothing about.

...so we need the Cybertruck for around town stuff and need to buy a semi truck to tow? The economics of that would deflate any haul/tow savings I would think.

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[jerhenderson]

331/350 miles won't do if you tow. I hope there's a 500 mile option so people who buy a truck to do truck things can.

85% of truck owners never tow anything, so I'd argue that's the truck thing, based on simple majority use.

 

[HaulingAss]

It is his opinion, but I don't know how Sandy can say the CT is extremely 'strong?', and yet he considers it more suitable for the leisure industry over the construction industry.
I guess the CT needs to prove itself. There was a time when EV's were considered just golf carts.

And Corey reckons most of the people he has spoken to were EV owners, and not truck owners. Mind you, he is talking to people at Tesla EV events, who are more white collar than blue.
Its like visiting a prison, and deducing most people have a criminal background.

Not wishing to criticize here, but part of their summarization seemed strange to me.

Sandy and Corey's expertise is in manufacturing, not sales and marketing. Sandy has a bad habit of going outside his area of expertise. He's basing his opinion of the addressable market of the various truck offerings on superficial perceptions.

While it's true that there are various associations that differ between EV trucks offered by different manufacturers, and that will bias different buyers to one truck or another, these types of associations are relatively weak associations, once the dust settles and new truck buyers compare specs and prices with their use cases.

The Cybertruck will blow open the traditional truck market more explosively than anything we have seen since trucks became best sellers decades ago.

 

[HaulingAss]

...so we need the Cybertruck for around town stuff and need to buy a semi truck to tow? The economics of that would deflate any haul/tow savings I would think.

No, I didn't say that. I said almost no one buys a 1/2-ton truck to tow long distances. If towing thousands of miles is in the use case, people buy 3/4-ton or 1-ton trucks (and up). If you need to tow 80K lbs long distances, then, yes, you want a semi. Towing long distances is expensive and that's why people match the tool to the job.

 

[jerhenderson]

It is his opinion, but I don't know how Sandy can say the CT is extremely 'strong?', and yet he considers it more suitable for the leisure industry over the construction industry.
I guess the CT needs to prove itself. There was a time when EV's were considered just golf carts.

And Corey reckons most of the people he has spoken to were EV owners, and not truck owners. Mind you, he is talking to people at Tesla EV events, who are more white collar than blue.
Its like visiting a prison, and deducing most people have a criminal background.

Not wishing to criticize here, but part of their summarization seemed strange to me.

I'd say that yes, most people in a prison have a criminal background. that's Vulcan logic.

 

[HaulingAss]

BLUF: NSTR
Executive overview:
Sandy and Corey make guesses about range. 331-350 is their guess. They figure weight will be between 6k and 8k to hit the right categories for rebates/classification. They say it will be very stout and strong based on the stamped steel and castings alone.

It's difficult to take their guesses on curb weight seriously, considering they never seem to associate curb weights with a particular range offering and that adding 200 miles to the range (300+ miles vs. 500+ miles) is going to make the truck about 8-900 lbs. heavier.

That's too much variance to be spouting out weight guesses without specifying what range they are talking about. During the reveal there was also a 250-mile range version, if I recall correctly.

 

[HaulingAss]

85% of truck owners never tow anything, so I'd argue that's the truck thing, based on simple majority use.

Here's a good prank:

When you see a shiny new heavy duty truck park on a city street, and the owner looks like a trucker-wanna-be, out to be seen, just stroll up to them in a friendly and laid-back country manner and catch their eye. Put on your best country drawl, don't overdo it, pretend like you have a blade of straw between your lips and compliment them on their truck. Since its new, you will generally see the pride well up inside them.

After they say "thank-you" and add something about how they agree, pop the question. You know the one I'm talking about, the obvious question on everyone's mind when they see such a fine, heavy-duty truck, "So, whatcha' been hauling lately?"

The dumbfounded look on their faces is priceless.

 

[TyPope]

It's difficult to take their guesses on curb weight seriously, considering they never seem to associate curb weights with a particular range offering and that adding 200 miles to the range (300+ miles vs. 500+ miles) is going to make the truck about 8-900 lbs. heavier.

That's too much variance to be spouting out weight guesses without specifying what range they are talking about. During the reveal there was also a 250-mile range version, if I recall correctly.

Correct. I think the 6,000 to 8,000 spread makes sense given the unknown battery pack size. Those guys have taken apart a lot of cars and have a much better feel than I do about weight. I'm putting my guess in the 7,250 - 7,600 camp though...

 

[CyberGus]

my inner empath feels that Cory was holding onto his arm rests wondering what Sandy was going to say next

we all wonder what Sandy is going to say next

that's why I subbed

 

[HaulingAss]

They still can't explain how there would be a 'true' exoskeleton.

So true. Before anyone says the Cybertruck is not the "true" exoskeleton it was presented as, I think that person needs to explain how the door openings would be handled in a "true" exoskeleton. Because structural engineering is a real thing.

It was obvious from day one there would need to be a framework with which to close the doors against and that framework would have to form the structural cage that protects the occupants. Additionally, that there would need to be a crumple zone. because a modern vehicle cannot be delivered without this.

Anyone who thought the Cybertruck would ever be made almost entirely from four pieces of folded 3mm thick stainless steel didn't think this through. And it's necessary to have a concept of what a "true exoskeleton" design would look like before claiming it's not a "true exoskeleton" design.

People love to tell you something is not good enough, that it's no different from what you can already buy, when they have no idea how to design or build something that is better. Many of them can't even recognize it when they are looking right at it!

 

[HaulingAss]

Correct. I think the 6,000 to 8,000 spread makes sense given the unknown battery pack size. Those guys have taken apart a lot of cars and have a much better feel than I do about weight. I'm putting my guess in the 7,250 - 7,600 camp though...

I'm not seeing that much weight in the designs revealed, even in a 500+ mile, quad motor version (which might hit 7,200 max).

But you have made the same mistake as Sandy and Corey by guessing a weight without specifying which version you are speculating about. There is only a 350 lbs. spread in the weight range you've guessed, while the versions announced will have to span at least 1000 lbs. difference to accommodate the nearly 300 miles of range between the lowest and highest spec versions. Add to that the weight difference of at least two additional motors (1 to 3 motors or 2 to 4 motors) and it becomes apparent that specifying a guess on weight, without specifying an EPA range or number of motors, is a fool's errand.

 

[cvalue13]

“Sandy Munro and Cory don’t really know what they’re talking about when it comes to understanding vehicle construction and assembly, but thankfully I’m here to share my deeper expertise”….

… is a weird take

 

[TyPope]

I'm not seeing that much weight in the designs revealed, even in a 500+ mile, quad motor version (which might hit 7,200 max).

But you have made the same mistake as Sandy and Corey by guessing a weight without specifying which version you are speculating about. There is only a 350 lbs. spread in the weight range you've guessed, while the versions announced will have to span at least 1000 lbs. difference to accommodate the nearly 300 miles of range between the lowest and highest spec versions. Add to that the weight difference of at least two additional motors (1 to 3 motors or 2 to 4 motors) and it becomes apparent that specifying a guess on weight, without specifying an EPA range or number of motors, is a fool's errand.

I suppose I should have clarified here. My guess is on my CT's weight. It'll be a full-up round. My 350# spread is based on the (possibly) 500 mi range, quad motor version.

 

[AlDente]

331/350 miles won't do if you tow. I hope there's a 500 mile option so people who buy a truck to do truck things can.

Spoken like someone whos never road tripped and Supercharged a Tesla. While 500 mile range is nice, it isn't essential in all but a few edge case scenarios. Driving 250 -350 miles at a time with 15-30 minute charging stops is really not bad and in many cases it's a welcome break.

At the current rate of expansion, Superchargers will be near even the most remote locations. If you have some heavy edge case use planned, 500 miles might not get it done. For those extreme cases an ICE truck with extra gas on-board would be best.

 

[AlDente]

Sandy and Corey's expertise is in manufacturing, not sales and marketing. Sandy has a bad habit of going outside his area of expertise. He's basing his opinion of the addressable market of the various truck offerings on superficial perceptions.

While it's true that there are various associations that differ between EV trucks offered by different manufacturers, and that will bias different buyers to one truck or another, these types of associations are relatively weak associations, once the dust settles and new truck buyers compare specs and prices with their use cases.

The Cybertruck will blow open the traditional truck market more explosively than anything we have seen since trucks became best sellers decades ago.

Critiquing anyone for having "superficial perceptions" on this Forum is absurdly funny. Speculation and superficial perceptions are the currency of The Cybertruck Owners Forum.

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