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[charliemagpie]

ICE cars will be around for another 20 years, and so will petrol stations

But, there will be a phasing out, I wonder what happens when EV reach 50% penetration... will fuel station continue to operate with half the taking? or will half of them close?

If I was a petrol station owner in 2030, I would be asking myself if I should be managing myself out, or whether I continue the slow death march.

Imagine in 10 years, an ICE car goes outback, only to find the only fuel station is no longer there. But lotsa charging options.

I had a video shop in 1984. Sold in 1988. then watched the next decade. I feel the same erosion and grinded end will come to 95% of fuel stations.

If I am wrong, add 5 years.

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[Cyberman]

ICE cars will be around for another 20 years, and so will petrol stations

But, there will be a phasing out, I wonder what happens when EV reach 50% penetration... will fuel station continue to operate with half the taking? or will half of them close?

If I was a petrol station owner in 2030, I would be asking myself if I should be managing myself out, or whether I continue the slow death march.

Imagine in 10 years, an ICE car goes outback, only to find the only fuel station is no longer there. But lotsa charging options.

I had a video shop in 1984. Sold in 1988. then watched the next decade. I feel the same erosion and grinded end will come to 95% of fuel stations.

If I am wrong, add 5 years.

I imagine when 50% of fuel stations are gone, gas will cost twice as much.

 

[Ogre]

People talk about how legacy auto is going to be cranking out new ICE vehicles for 20+ years or whatever.

None of them have a game plan for how these companies survive 5+ years of declining sales of their profitable lines (let alone 10+ years). Nor do they talk about how they can keep profits flowing as their products compete against new technology which costs the same or less than their product but costs a fraction as much to operate.

The basic assumption is that “EVs are expensive and will remain so” which will leave room for a healthy, thriving market of ICE vehicles, but this is a giant lie. EVs have been declining in cost to produce for 15 years and these cost reductions will continue.

“Early adopter bubble” is better than “Head in the sand” bubble.

 

[Dids]

What company? I'm in marketing and would love to check it out.

https://www.unrealengine.com/en-US/

 

[MEDICALJMP]

ICE cars will be around for another 20 years, and so will petrol stations

But, there will be a phasing out, I wonder what happens when EV reach 50% penetration... will fuel station continue to operate with half the taking? or will half of them close?

If I was a petrol station owner in 2030, I would be asking myself if I should be managing myself out, or whether I continue the slow death march.

Imagine in 10 years, an ICE car goes outback, only to find the only fuel station is no longer there. But lotsa charging options.

I had a video shop in 1984. Sold in 1988. then watched the next decade. I feel the same erosion and grinded end will come to 95% of fuel stations.

If I am wrong, add 5 years.

Corey Steuben from Munro Live was being interviewed recently. He says there are a BILLION vehicles on the road world-wide and it will take 50 years to kill off ICE vehicles.

You think too first world. What is the electrical situation in Bangladesh? What is the electrical infrastructure in Pakistan? What about Myanmar? Think of all the gas powered cars that are running around there, which are sold and resold.

It will be very easy to put up electrical charging stations on Fiji, it is a small island country. Third World Countries are going to have a much harder time. The costs of conversion are not cheap. United States is a very large industrialized nation, and there is billions and billions of dollars being put up by the government to speed up electrification of the automobile infrastructure.

 

[RVAC]

Corey Steuben from Munro Live was being interviewed recently. He says there are a BILLION vehicles on the road world-wide and it will take 50 years to kill off ICE vehicles.

You think too first world. What is the electrical situation in Bangladesh? What is the electrical infrastructure in Pakistan? What about Myanmar? Think of all the gas powered cars that are running around there, which are sold and resold.

It will be very easy to put up electrical charging stations on Fiji, it is a small island country. Third World Countries are going to have a much harder time. The costs of conversion are not cheap. United States is a very large industrialized nation, and there is billions and billions of dollars being put up by the government to speed up electrification of the automobile infrastructure.

Sure but western legacy OEM's aren't making their money selling cars in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle, there are bound to be people that will resist electrification as much as possible and the legacy manufacturers will milk them dry.

 

[Ogre]

Corey Steuben from Munro Live was being interviewed recently. He says there are a BILLION vehicles on the road world-wide and it will take 50 years to kill off ICE vehicles.

There is going to be a large gap between the first of the legacy auto makers failing or quitting ICE vehicles and the complete disappearance of ICE vehicles. It’s 2 completely different things. If ICE sales stopped tomorrow we’d have gas stations and combustion vehicles around for another 20 years.

Cars last 5-20+ years, particularly if well maintained.

But demand for new ICE vehicles can fall off a cliff rather quickly. Much like demand for dumb cell phones vanished in less than 5 years. It’s fairly easy to delay the purchase of a new car by years if you can’t find the one you want.

 

[Crissa]

And EVs are batteries. They don't need an electrical grid to run. They just need to be charged more than they discharge and they don't care when or how consistent it happens.

A battery's magic sauce compared to generators is that you don't have to balance input current with output current, a battery will take what's given and will give what's drawn - no less, no more.

They are perfect for inconsistent, bad power situations.

The gasoline/diesel market crash will be even worse in less prepared nations. It's why ev busses and motorcycles are being made in Africa right now.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

I think the RAM Rev looks pretty good. And what stats we know from their target technologies sounds great.

...I just don't know when they're going to be able to pull it off. What other vehicles are they testing any of these technologies on? That's got me worried.

-Crissa

agreed...that truck looks really good......I am looking for the range for it, do you know?

 

[Ogre]

The gasoline/diesel market crash will be even worse in less prepared nations. It's why ev busses and motorcycles are being made in Africa right now.

There is a lot less infrastructure there. These countries adopted smartphones before PCs or even normal phone service was common. Many of them have solar without a grid. Lots of ebikes charging on solar arrays. Big solar charging stations make a lot of sense there where they have a terrible grid to fall back on.

Easier to replace bad or non-existing infra structure than good, healthy systems.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Sure but western legacy OEM's aren't making their money selling cars in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle, there are bound to be people that will resist electrification as much as possible and the legacy manufacturers will milk them dry.

They are. If you go there you will see plenty of Toyotas, Isuzu,

Sure but western legacy OEM's aren't making their money selling cars in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle, there are bound to be people that will resist electrification as much as possible and the legacy manufacturers will milk them dry.

you don’t consider Toyota, Nissan, or Isuzu legacy automakers? Guess you’ve never been to any of the ‘Stan countries — Afghanistan, Pakistan, Khazakhstan. Toyota has about 85% of the vehicles driving there; everything from the Hilux, sedans, econoboxes…. Nissan and Isuzus are all over Central Asia as well. I’ve personally seen more Japanese and Korean autos driving in Mongolia than you can ever imagine. Why did you think Chairman Toyota was so dead set against electrifying the Toyota brand?

 

[Quicksilver]

I imagine when 50% of fuel stations are gone, gas will cost twice as much.

I was explaining how EV's would eventually replace ICE vehicles over the next twenty years to a buddy of mine. He is an old school welder that uses a big diesel dually to haul his welding and cutting equipment around.
He said "you buy that fancy electric truck and watch the price of electricity go sky high". "I'll watch diesel prices go down because they will be less demand for it".
I explained that the big oil companies will simply cut production and refining and keep the price high while electricity will get cheaper as companies like Tesla bring more efficiency to producing, storing and distributing power.
As a practicing Luddite he didn't have an answer for that.

 

[FutureBoy]

I was explaining <snip> to a buddy of mine. He is an old school welder that uses a big diesel dually to haul his welding and cutting equipment around.
<snip>
As a practicing Luddite he didn't have an answer for that.

Interesting that Luddites always seem to pick and choose the level of technology that they suddenly see as having "crossed the line". Notice that he has built his career around welding and drives a big diesel dually. But somehow EVs are beyond the pale.

Ned Ludd would be very surprised.

 

[Crissa]

The original Luddites weren't against technology, they just wanted to get paid a fair wage and not subject to crippling injuries.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

They are. If you go there you will see plenty of Toyotas, Isuzu, you don’t consider Toyota, Nissan, or Isuzu legacy automakers? Guess you’ve never been to any of the ‘Stan countries — Afghanistan, Pakistan, Khazakhstan. Toyota has about 85% of the vehicles driving there; everything from the Hilux, sedans, econoboxes…. Nissan and Isuzus are all over Central Asia as well. I’ve personally seen more Japanese and Korean autos driving in Mongolia than you can ever imagine.

I know, I said Western OEM's so US and European legacies. Toyota does have that market to lean on but it's very price sensitive and the US, China and to a lesser extent the EU make up a considerable percentage of Toyota's sales and I imagine an even greater percentage of their profits.

Why did you think Chairman Toyota was so dead set against electrifying the Toyota brand?

Primarily because they were betting on Hydrogen and had a ton of R&D spend on that instead of EV's.

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