Price for CyberTruck ESTIMATE released by Farzad Mesbahi July 3rd, 2023

[cvalue13]

They said a 100kWh battery would be in the cyber truck in the last master plan released.

Basis for entry spec dual motor 300mi for $54,900-$59,900:
If we put a ~100kWh battery in a dual motor CT, it will get ~300miles.

that is not what the master plan asserted, or was talking about

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[newwave1331]

that is not what the master plan asserted, or was talking about

what was your understanding of the 100 kWh battery listed next to cybertruck?

 

[cvalue13]

what was your understanding of the 100 kWh battery listed next to cybertruck?

the chart is within a section describing how transition to green will require, amongst other things, conversion to BEVs - and providing estimates of what that future may look like or require.

This slide is then attempting to make an estimation of the TWh of batteries that would be needed for complete BEV conversion globally. To arrive at that TWh estimate, it assumes that larger vehicles will need more energy-dense batteries, and will on average need about a 100kWh pack of those high density batteries.

This chart simply gives a “Tesla equivalent” example of the sizes of vehicles likely to need various energy-density packs, and on average what those pack sizes would be, in order to come up with a loosely accurate estimation of global TWhs needed.

It does not say that the CyberTruck itself will use a Nickle battery, or have a 100kWh pack, when releases. Maybe it will or won’t, but this chart isn’t taking a position on that

Here’s the operative description of the chart (and it’s FN):

“Vehicles

Today there are 1.4B vehicles globally and annual passenger vehicle production of ~85M vehicles, according to OICA. Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteriesaa. Autonomy has potential to reduce the global fleet, and annual production required, through improved vehicle utilization.

Standard-range vehicles can utilize the lower energy density chemistries (LFP), whereas long-range vehicles require higher energy density chemistries (high nickel). Cathode assignment to vehicle segment is listed in the table below. High Nickel refers to low to zero cobalt Nickel Manganese cathodes currently in production, under development at Tesla, Tesla’s suppliers and in research groups.

[FN:]
To approximate the battery storage required to displace 100% of road vehicles, the global fleet size, pack size (kWh)/ Global passenger fleet size and annual production (~85M vehicles/year) is based on data from OICA. The number of vehicles by segment is estimated based on S&P Global sales data. For buses and trucks, the US-to-global fleet scalar of ~5x is used as global data was unavailable.”

 

[Regenshire]

Tangent: had Telstra ever given prices at a prototype reveal before the CT?

I know they didn’t with X, but didn’t follow eg 3

At the announcement event for the Model 3 in 2016, pricing was announced as starting at 35k. Similar to the Cybertruck, they had a reservation order page that went live with the event where you selected a trim and options and it listed all the pricing. Tesla did technically match this pricing at release.

The pricing was a bit messier then how Tesla currently prices stuff, there was the base car price and then they had "options" listed like Premium Interior listed as separate items in the original configurator. These ended up not being options so much as just rolled into the final product.

That said, the pricing at release matched the pricing they announced with those features they were actually selling the car with.

Model 3 - Long Range RWD - Launched at $49,000 which matched the pricing they announced if you added in the Premium Interior options on to it.

Model 3 - Standard Range- $35,000 - Tesla released this model last, honoring this price in early 2019, though only offering the model briefly before removing it.

 

[newwave1331]

It's not about clinging to anything. Things cost a certain amount to produce... there is an amount of steel, an amount of engineering cost, an amount of factory time and space. CT requires less of some things and more of other things. Tesla has predicted the cost and predicted a price. Yes some inflation has occured. But it's like 5% inflation, not 50%. And indeed the price of other tesla models is lower than 2019...So anyone that thinks the price is going up thinks tesla doesn't know what it is doing.... and yet they are able to price and grow the company by 50% yearly....

Inflation (Nov to Nov)
2020: 1.2%
2021: 6.9%
2022: 7.1%
2023: 4.2% (projected based on T12M)

If you just compound the inflation from Nov 2019 pricing, it would be $48133, $60197, and $84324. So not 50% but it is 21% and that's based on general inflation, not inflation of EV components which I'm sure is higher. Any pricing predictions coming in lower than this a someone’s dream. The pricing was remarkable in 2019 and people think Tesla can have a rabbit pull another rabbit out of a hat.

2019 Model 3 LR $45,700
2022 Model 3 LR $56,990
24.7% increase

 

[CyberGus]

Inflation (Nov to Nov)
2020: 1.2%
2021: 6.9%
2022: 7.1%
2023: 4.2% (projected based on T12M)

If you just compound the inflation from Nov 2019 pricing, it would be $48133, $60197, and $84324. So not 50% but it is 21% and that's based on general inflation, not inflation of EV components which I'm sure is higher. Any pricing predictions coming in lower than this a someone’s dream. The pricing was remarkable in 2019 and people think Tesla can have a rabbit pull another rabbit out of a hat.

2019 Model 3 LR $45,700
2022 Model 3 LR $56,990
24.7% increase

Tesla would have factored in some inflation to any forward-looking prices, which your maths above did not account for.

The Model Y is currently cheaper than it was in 2020:

Source: Google Spreadsheet




P.S. stay outta my dreams

 

[charliemagpie]

Using 4680, it would probably cost tesla and extra $8000 to go from 300 Miles to 600 Miles. Add 50% Markup, and the sell price is $12,000 extra.

There is extra cost for the motors, but I don't see a $50,000 jump.

 

[Mini2nut]

Let’s all be realistic. The Cybertruck is going to have the best technology available on a pickup truck with a premium price tag to match. Adjustable air suspension, amazing towing capability, powered tonneau cover, RWS, possibly steer-by-wire steering, ultra hard stainless steel exterior, powered door poppers, etc.

You simply have to look at the competition to get a rough estimate for revised pricing. Let’s look at some MSRP’s for BEV pickup competitors. All of these prices are for base vehicles with zero options:

-Rivian R1T Dual Motor with base 260 mile battery pack: $73,000
-Ford Lightning Lariat trim with base 240 mile battery pack: $76,974
-Chevrolet Silverado EV WT with base 350 battery pack: $74,800

I feel that anyone who thinks the Dual Motor Cybertruck will come in under $70,000 is delirious. Every CT reservation holder should be prepared to be disappointed. Every serious reservation holder needs to have a Plan B in place for when Tesla announces trim levels, specifications and revised MSRP‘s.

 

[greggertruck]

i posted a comment on his vid.

I feel legacy prices are arbitrary, as strange as that sounds, they are pricing somewhere between a loss and a justifiable sell price.

On the other hand , Tesla will set a sell price to make its planned profit.

The better comparison would be the Semi. Clear Price and Performance discrepancy between the Tesla Semi and Legacy Electric Semi's. CT will follow suit.

Did you just say you think Cybertruck will cost 3x the original price?

 

[rudedawg78]

Inflation (Nov to Nov)
2020: 1.2%
2021: 6.9%
2022: 7.1%
2023: 4.2% (projected based on T12M)

If you just compound the inflation from Nov 2019 pricing, it would be $48133, $60197, and $84324. So not 50% but it is 21% and that's based on general inflation, not inflation of EV components which I'm sure is higher. Any pricing predictions coming in lower than this a someone’s dream. The pricing was remarkable in 2019 and people think Tesla can have a rabbit pull another rabbit out of a hat.

2019 Model 3 LR $45,700
2022 Model 3 LR $56,990
24.7% increase

Are you forgetting that the Cybertruck was initially projected to be released in late 2021? The prices announced at the reveal (in 2019) were the prices the CT would be in late 2021, NOT 2019 prices.

I don't understand when people start the rising inflation rates starting in 2019. You are 2 years too early, yo!

 

[charliemagpie]

Did you just say you think Cybertruck will cost 3x the original price?

As If lol.

I mean it is relative. Legacy Semi's (when last looked) are $350,000, Tesla Semi is say 250,000.

Drawing a long bow, Legacy trucks are $90,000 , CT will be $60,000. (Dual.. similar specs ?)

We have the discrepancy in front of us using the Semi as an example. I think we should at least consider it could apply to trucks as well.

 

[Greshnab]

Let’s all be realistic. The Cybertruck is going to have the best technology available on a pickup truck with a premium price tag to match. Adjustable air suspension, amazing towing capability, powered tonneau cover, RWS, possibly steer-by-wire steering, ultra hard stainless steel exterior, powered door poppers, etc.

You simply have to look at the competition to get a rough estimate for revised pricing. Let’s look at some MSRP’s for BEV pickup competitors. All of these prices are for base vehicles with zero options:

-Rivian R1T Dual Motor with base 260 mile battery pack: $73,000
-Ford Lightning Lariat trim with base 240 mile battery pack: $76,974
-Chevrolet Silverado EV WT with base 350 battery pack: $74,800

I feel that anyone who thinks the Dual Motor Cybertruck will come in under $70,000 is delirious. Every CT reservation holder should be prepared to be disappointed. Every serious reservation holder needs to have a Plan B in place for when Tesla announces trim levels, specifications and revised MSRP‘s.

i am unclear why you are quoting the price of other electric trucks ... electric vehicles are NOT the market that any tesla vehicle is competing with...

their mission statement is to move people from ICE vehicles to Electric vehicles.. they are NOT competing with electric trucks but gas trucks.. so which GAS trucks have an entry level of 70k...

i believe the answer is NONE.. if Tesla's entry level vehicle is 70,000 they have failed to fulfill their mission statement.

 

[CyberGus]

Let’s all be realistic.

!!?!

 

[jerhenderson]

I was using price per mile of range near the model Y as a guideline. If it was price per kWh, my pricing is below a model 3. I doubt their will be a shortage of customers at $55-60k. I agree that the large packs are priced high and will only be sensible for people that NEED the 500+ miles. At faster charging rates, not many ppl should need 500 miles of range.

Northern Canada here..... need range.

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