Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[Love2Cyber]

well, at least for now they’re not making so few beasts bc of low demand.

It’s bc it’s all they can build, due to driveline parts constraints (upside is it doesn’t hurt the halo of exclusivity around the truck)

demand-wise, check the orders thread for a rough proxy: 46 beasts to 61 AWD

What I was saying is that, given the build blend, the people ordering beasts will have a long wait.

so at the moment, they’ll be delivering 9 AWD for every 1 beast

Applying that to the order chart here, it means that all 61 AWD will be built and delivered before just 6 beasts will be built/delivered

or put another way, in the time those 46 beasts are built/delivered, they’ll have built/delivered 414 AWD trucks


at some point, the beast parts constraint will relax and I’d expect they play catch-up on beasts

that could be weeks, or months

but I expect more like months. And that this is why the Foundation order emails say deliveries for AWDF are between December and March, while deliveries for CBF are “in 2024”

That's actually a worse situation than I thought - thanks for clarifying. Production problems on the premium vehicle and an overpriced base model... Hopefully they iron things out quickly.

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[newwave1331]

well, at least for now they’re not making so few beasts bc of low demand.

It’s bc it’s all they can build, due to driveline parts constraints (upside is it doesn’t hurt the halo of exclusivity around the truck)

demand-wise, check the orders thread for a rough proxy: 46 beasts to 61 AWD

What I was saying is that, given the build blend, the people ordering beasts will have a long wait.

so at the moment, they’ll be delivering 9 AWD for every 1 beast

Applying that to the order chart here, it means that all 61 AWD will be built and delivered before just 6 beasts will be built/delivered

or put another way, in the time those 46 beasts are built/delivered, they’ll have built/delivered 414 AWD trucks


at some point, the beast parts constraint will relax and I’d expect they play catch-up on beasts

that could be weeks, or months

but I expect more like months. And that this is why the Foundation order emails say deliveries for AWDF are between December and March, while deliveries for CBF are “in 2024”

I dont know if the ratios of RCs and MCs matters but I figured I'd add it to the conversation.

Build Type	AWD	Cyberbeast	Grand Total
RC (600-724)	100	20	120
MC (801-906)	95	10	105
Showroom (1200-1219)	20		20
Foundation (0-1199)	187	21	208
Grand Total	402	51	453

 

[cvalue13]

I dont know if the ratios of RCs and MCs matters but I figured I'd add it to the conversation.

Build Type	AWD	Cyberbeast	Grand Total
RC (600-724)	100	20	120
MC (801-906)	95	10	105
Showroom (1200-1219)	20		20
Foundation (0-1199)	187	21	208
Grand Total	402	51	453

yep

When data gets a bit more smoothed out, we can coordinate to revise my initial post in this thread, or start a clean thread for a live chart in the OP of these things

may be interesting to over time have an overlay of this build blend ratio somehow

perhaps best shown on the graph you have, with two added sub-lines, one for AWD one for CT with the main blue line as total

 

[newwave1331]

11 more AWD yesterday.

 

[scottf200]

11 more AWD yesterday.

Can I ask what that footnote means? I must not be following this thread close enough.

 

[greggertruck]

Can I ask what that footnote means? I must not be following this thread close enough.

VIN skipping, I think.

They built VIN 0.1.2.3... then.... skipped 4..... 5.6.7..... etc.

 

[scottf200]

Can I ask what that footnote means? I must not be following this thread close enough.

VIN skipping, I think.

They built VIN 0.1.2.3... then.... skipped 4..... 5.6.7..... etc.

Doh... of course ... that tracks.
21 - AWD Tri-Beast : roughly ABS(0-3+5-20+911-(912)) ... my cut-n-paste into google results
198 - AWD Dual : roughly ABS(4-(5)+51-70+99-(100)+421-596)

 

[newwave1331]

Can I ask what that footnote means? I must not be following this thread close enough.

These are the last 3 digits of the VINs that I'm including in those production numbers. I'm trying to not post full vin numbers while giving enough information that someone that can generate a full VIN can still verify it. If I'm missing any, someone can let us know too.

 

[newwave1331]

VIN skipping, I think.

They built VIN 0.1.2.3... then.... skipped 4..... 5.6.7..... etc.

Correct. #4 ended up being an AWD. The #99 AWD and #911 cyberbeast are also the odd ones. I'm not sure if those were just special foundation VINs going to super special customers or they are MCs. ?‍ #0 is also different.

The last couple of days the VINs have been coming from the mid to high 500s (max 596 as of now). So 597, 598, 599 ..... would be what I'm expecting for today.

If the beasts don't catch up to the AWDs, could we see another limited production like the signature or founders series after foundation? I would guess they would want to align a start of a quarter when the ramp starts to really hit a stride for the financial reporting.

 

[cvalue13]

I would guess they would want to align a start of a quarter when the ramp starts to really hit a stride for the financial reporting.

yeah, Q2 I think

im guessing Foundation unit purchase and deliveries all though Q1

they could start configuring normal retail orders in Q1, for Q2 delivery

be building out normal retail units in back half of Q1 to bulk up theQ2 delivery units

 

[scottf200]

Re: to see if VINs track with these timelines. Tho Foundation models will be being made.

AWD Tri-beast: Mid-Late 2024
AWD Dual: Jan 2024 to Mar 2024

 

[cvalue13]

Re: to see if VINs track with these timelines. Tho Foundation models will be being made.

AWD Tri-beast: Mid-Late 2024
AWD Dual: Jan 2024 to Mar 2024

Anyone who has taken delivery of Teslas:

does tesla ever show the waiting owner the blend/build/scomplete/ship dates of their unit?

otherwise, we’ll seem to only know:

(A) the day Tesla registered the VIN (could be weeks before build even begins, much less completes), and

(B) date customer takes delivery *


* this assumes a member here takes delivery and shares VIN


or does Tesla show other waypoints?

 

[scottf200]

Anyone who has taken delivery of Teslas:
does tesla ever show the waiting owner the blend/build/scomplete/ship dates of their unit?

I waited 3 years for a Signature Model X and I don't recall any of those details being available like they are like the Ford example you may be thinking of.

 

[cvalue13]

I waited 3 years for a Signature Model X and I don't recall any of those details being available like they are like the Ford example you may be thinking of.

yes, I’m definitely coming from the Ford mindset of basically being told when each bolt is turning to the right, being sent a photo of it as it exits the line, etc.


ok, so with these Cybertrucks, we’ll only see the food going in the mouth then it coming back out the other end…

 

[VR Driving]

Anyone who has taken delivery of Teslas:

does tesla ever show the waiting owner the blend/build/scomplete/ship dates of their unit?

otherwise, we’ll seem to only know:

(A) the day Tesla registered the VIN (could be weeks before build even begins, much less completes), and

(B) date customer takes delivery *


* this assumes a member here takes delivery and shares VIN


or does Tesla show other waypoints?

Tesla doesn't assign vins until it's finished. Then it matches what is built at the factory to the order with the same specification. Cybertruck only has 2 SKUs total atm, so it's pretty simple. Model Y on the other hand has 5 colors x 2 seat colors x 2 wheel choice x tow hook or not, so each color has 8 SKUs, and this is one ONE trim.

Once you officially configured your order, you will be in line to get a VIN assigned. The timing depends on the production rate and supply/demand.

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