Cybertruck is almost sold out for 2024. Reservation conversion rate very encouraging (per Q4 2023 earnings call)

[cvalue13]

Using VIN information is useless as well. Just because a VIN is made, doesn't mean the car even started production.

this isn’t exactly right

VIN activation info isn’t perfect, but it’s by far the best and most reliable info we’ve got.

especially if you have a little help from your friends

history has shown that knowing how to interpret VIN activation trends is a pretty good indication of scale and directionality of production.

The limitations are (1) it’s forward looking, and (2) it tends to become increasingly more forward-looking at production ramps

but one can get a feel for how forward-looking it is at a given time, by cross-referencing to delivered VINs. The more delivered VINs the better, but a sample helps scale if eg VINS activated in week X are relevant to vehicles delivered either 2 weeks later, or 2 months later.

Bloomberg’s Model3 VIN tracker for four consecutive quarters, came closer than Wall Street quarterly forecasts, and twice came within 0.5 percent of Tesla’s actual quarterly reported production.

(note/ I have a good idea of why they were off by 5% and 2% in Q1 and Q2, respectively)

so, even if our VIN tracker is forward-looking by a ‘vague’ range of ‘between 2-4 weeks’, it’s wildly more informative than these half-cocked ideas that viewing transport lots for 2 different hours in a 7 day week is informative - especially because Tesla could hold hundreds of units inside GfTX (and has before).

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[Celiboy]

Such optimism here about getting their $80,000 Cybertruck with $7500 tax credit. It is not happening this year.

2024 is the year of the FS, plain and simple. It will be 10,000, 20,000, or however many units they want to make. Not only is the production ramping up slow, we are beta testers for this new vehicle with lots of differences between the S3XY lineup. Don't forget powershare installations. If you didn't order the FS, 2025 is just around the corner!

Where are these 10,000, 20,000, 30,0000 numbers for 2024 coming from?? he already said the ramp up is going slow. Even if they were able to complete all 1000 (no one knows the exact number) of the FS and delivered them all in January (even though FS Beast isn’t supposed to be delivered until later this year), that would mean 29K truckes in 11 months. That’s almost 2700 per month or 87 a day! I believe the ramp will continue to improve over the course of this year but I think that any thing more than FS is extremely wishful thinking.

Elon has to be very careful with what he says in these calls because the wrong statement could tank their stock even further than it’s already dropped recently. He’s always going to present info in the most positive way possible.

Remember, this is the same man that promised us a 500 mile, 69K truck ?

 

[Sjohnson20]

So anybody that got skipped and not offered the foundation is there anything else that might have caused it? The Mario guy was in Hawaii when he reserved so that is probably what is causing that skip. Seems like they are basing everything on where your address was when you did the $100 deposit.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

So anybody that got skipped and not offered the foundation is there anything else that might have caused it? The Mario guy was in Hawaii when he reserved so that is probably what is causing that skip. Seems like they are basing everything on where your address was when you did the $100 deposit.

Interestingly, Tesla knows my address because I have bought two cars and lots of other things and they all get to me, not to mention SC charges … all the same address. But my online account had no address on it until all of this discussion and then I added it. This said, my number is still out in the distance but I hope that I will get an invite if they get out to the 113s nonetheless.

 

[Ward L]

If you were skipped and talking to your nearest Tesla store or showroom doesn't help, put in another order for a CT. You got screwed, but if you want a FSCT, get on the list. Maybe a dumb idea, but try talking with your local Tesla delivery center.

 

[jerhenderson]

F’ing yes you are. I’m close to selling my model X, my Tesla stock and buying a Rivian.

Ok bye !

 

[jerhenderson]

Where are these 10,000, 20,000, 30,0000 numbers for 2024 coming from?? he already said the ramp up is going slow. Even if they were able to complete all 1000 (no one knows the exact number) of the FS and delivered them all in January (even though FS Beast isn’t supposed to be delivered until later this year), that would mean 29K truckes in 11 months. That’s almost 2700 per month or 87 a day! I believe the ramp will continue to improve over the course of this year but I think that any thing more than FS is extremely wishful thinking.

Elon has to be very careful with what he says in these calls because the wrong statement could tank their stock even further than it’s already dropped recently. He’s always going to present info in the most positive way possible.

Remember, this is the same man that promised us a 500 mile, 69K truck ?

What promise?

 

[savagecabbage]

Ok bye !

Why? Does it hurt your feelings that I am pissed off? WTF do you think a forum is for? Circle jerking? I have waited longer than literally everyone… I am in Fremont and I have the one of the lowest possible reservation numbers…. So basically it is hard to justify being a fan of a company that does not treat it customers fairly. I could not give a crap about anyone else , I was first in line (nearly) and I was skipped, which from my understanding is VERY VERY rarified air, especially being next to the factory. So yes, I’m pissed off, because I won the random lottery of this level of disappointment. Sometimes, misery truly does love company and venting on a public forum, you find out a few select others that might have been randomly chosen to be f’d by Tesla’s faceless (and non existent) customer service.
The Cybertruck (to me) is only cool if I own it…

 

[Mini2nut]

I’m curious where the Cybertruck production numbers will be at the end of this “ramp up“ year.

My guess is roughly 30k trucks will leave the assembly plant in 2024.

 

[Celiboy]

What promise?

Everyone who had a problem with the ranges word, not mine.

 

[cvalue13]

I’m curious where the Cybertruck production numbers will be at the end of this “ramp up“ year.

My guess is roughly 30k trucks will leave the assembly plant in 2024.

kind of dig that revision of the CT waistline

 

[Gurule92]

Why? Does it hurt your feelings that I am pissed off? WTF do you think a forum is for? Circle jerking? I have waited longer than literally everyone… I am in Fremont and I have the one of the lowest possible reservation numbers…. So basically it is hard to justify being a fan of a company that does not treat it customers fairly. I could not give a crap about anyone else , I was first in line (nearly) and I was skipped, which from my understanding is VERY VERY rarified air, especially being next to the factory. So yes, I’m pissed off, because I won the random lottery of this level of disappointment. Sometimes, misery truly does love company and venting on a public forum, you find out a few select others that might have been randomly chosen to be f’d by Tesla’s faceless (and non existent) customer service.
The Cybertruck (to me) is only cool if I own it…

Some people here forget that we are humans who were looking forward to something for over 4 years. This level of insensitivity usually comes from people who joined the party late, people who already placed their FS orders or people who think Elon will notice them if they fight for his honor like a damsel in distress.. full Hercules style.

This best describes it. We're mad, Elon is Meg and they are Hercules.



Now, we are mad for different reasons but we feel for you!

 

[RonGonRetired]

I did watch that. Still not sure about daily production we will just have to wait and see. It will happen eventually.

watching Jeff's flyover on

Are people with 11276XXXX reservations that were straight up skipped allowed to be pissed yet?

I had 2 reservation placed within 20 minutes of each other: 112768xxx and 11273xxx.
I have an invite and ordered on 12/21 the invite was on the 11273 reservation, which I had specified dual motor AWD. the 11276 res. was specified tri-motor. My suspicion is that is the reason I haven't heard squat on that reservation. meanwhile I wait every day for my vin assignment and order completion. If it is any consolation, I am probably going to cancel the 11276 res. both of my daughters decided it is too expensive. 1 has already turned down her order for the Rivian R1S after driving an EV6 for a year. Great range and awesome charge rate were the reason.

 

[Gurule92]

watching Jeff's flyover on

I had 2 reservation placed within 20 minutes of each other: 112768xxx and 11273xxx.
I have an invite and ordered on 12/21 the invite was on the 11273 reservation, which I had specified dual motor AWD. the 11276 res. was specified tri-motor. My suspicion is that is the reason I haven't heard squat on that reservation. meanwhile I wait every day for my vin assignment and order completion. If it is any consolation, I am probably going to cancel the 11276 res. both of my daughters decided it is too expensive. 1 has already turned down her order for the Rivian R1S after driving an EV6 for a year. Great range and awesome charge rate were the reason.

Turned down a launch price R1S?!? That was a mistake lol

They only give invites for 1 per acct. Second one probably hit the lottery call and the other didn't

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