Cybertruck production rate ~80 units daily (currently as of 2/24/24)

[cyberme207]

I was a little surprised the invites going so deep into 11288 block even putting location as the consideration. does it mean the take rate is extremely low?

I think the take rate IS very low... the number of people on this forum waiting for a non FS is quite high... and these are enthusiasts.

People get very excited about this truck and dream about it... but when you actually have to commit to a $100K truck, you are flooded with doubt and anxiety. Most people reserved a long time ago and figured by the time the day came, they'd be able to afford it. But the reality is most people's earnings do not change significantly.

The average new car price is $49K, and the average vehicle on the road is 12 years old (last frame of reference of pain for buying a vehicle) meaning that most vehicle owners are not used to today's average car prices, let alone the idea of buying a $100k vehicle.

I can comfortably afford the Cybertruck (I live far below the means my salary can afford so I have buffer room for something like this - but by no means is this nothing to me, $100k is still a LOT to me) and mentally was prepared to spend up to $100k... but this still seems EXTREMELY crazy to me, when I know I'd be just as happy with a $50k new car, and have never paid more than $47k for a new vehicle.

I'm basically in it for the experience at this point and figure due to demand, I'll be able to sell it at the 1 year point with minimal losses if I realize this is not for me.

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[greggertruck]

I think it’s all a matter of what someone imagines in their mind when they think “second line”

What cuts through that confusion is speaking instead of total installed capacity at a given manufacturing plant. (Which clarity is why public disclosures speak in these terms.)

it’s no accident that GFTX is currently disclosed as total installed capacity of 125K, while Tesla speaks in terms of reaching a total installed of 250K.


The confusion is, depending on how you define “line,” that is either a single production facility/line which will be expanded to have twice the capacity for a total of 250k, or instead a production facility with one “line” of 125K and a second coming of another 125K.

Potato-Potato


What I don’t think is accurate or for which there is any support, but people seem to suggest/assume when they talk about a “second line” - is the suggestion that Tesla has some secret near term plan for installing twice the 250k capacity Tesla discusses somewhat openly, for a surprise 500K capacity at GFTX anytime soon.



I assume that when you’ve “seen claims there isn’t a second line” people are responding to the suggestion that there’s any near term buildout to 500K capacity, OR that the 125k+125k capacity is somehow a “second” line that is going to surprise anyone with being twice more than what Tesla has already disclosed or indicated.

All lines up, pun intended.

2nd line is an assembly line. Not a full blow second factory. Just a second one of what we got to walk at the delivery event.

 

[Strykerwsu]

It's not that simple... the Rivian is a niche vehicle, like a jeep Wrangler. It's not a truck, it's not a car. The Ford has legit build issues, is waiting for NACS ports and is marked up at the dealer.

What are you talking about? It's a an oversized midsized truck that tows 11k. Are Tacoma and Rangers which are smaller not a truck?

 

[cvalue13]

Are Tacoma and Rangers which are smaller not a truck?

4-door, 6-foot bed Tacomas for that matter

which are spitting distance from both the interior volumes of a Cat, and nearly identical in bed cargo volumes of a CT

 

[cvalue13]

2nd line is an assembly line. Not a full blow second factory. Just a second one of what we got to walk at the delivery event.

exactly

and it doesn’t mean that either are moving at full capacity once the 2nd is built

they can both be completed for 125k installed capacity, but each moving at ~1/2 capacity


in any event, the 125k current installed, and the variously suggested 250k installed, *are* the 1st/2nd “lines” being discussed

where at times, it sounds like people are suggesting the “second line” is ANOTHER 250k

 

[JesseDGreat]

I’m RN11275 and live in SoCall and I know I’m being an impatient dick but it just sucks that there seems to be no real method to the invites. I finally got my invite 01/30 and made the order that day
For a dual. I originally reserved a tri and really didn’t want the foundation but I didn’t trust Tesla not to put me in The back of the line when the non foundation CT come up

still waiting on VIN

 

[greggertruck]

exactly

and it doesn’t mean that either are moving at full capacity once the 2nd is built

they can both be completed for 125k installed capacity, but each moving at ~1/2 capacity


in any event, the 125k current installed, and the variously suggested 250k installed, *are* the 1st/2nd “lines” being discussed

where at times, it sounds like people are suggesting the “second line” is ANOTHER 250k

Wouldn't shock me to see another press or 2 in the future, BUT... gonna be awhile. I'm not even watching import logs for stuff right now.

Selfishly glad I am just taking my truck finally. You know? Like... I'll still very much be me, it's communal. BUT. It's a major relief to have MY truck.

 

[Ward L]

I’m RN11275 and live in SoCall and I know I’m being an impatient dick but it just sucks that there seems to be no real method to the invites. I finally got my invite 01/30 and made the order that day
For a dual. I originally reserved a tri and really didn’t want the foundation but I didn’t trust Tesla not to put me in The back of the line when the non foundation CT come up

still waiting on VIN

Wow, that is strange you didn't get the order offer on 12/8. And you have two Teslas already? WTF? Wonder how many others are in a similar situation. For every CT Owners club member with a low reservation #, there are 5 other people with low reservation #. (Or something like that)

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

Fantastic, at this rate, I'm going to get mine in 2030 .... And I'm 275k in the queue. Accounting for attrition obviously.

Here DownUnder waiting on RHD.....feeling your pain! And l'm at ~75K ! Australians are the 'WOODEN SPOON' winners.

 

[JesseDGreat]

Wow, that is strange you didn't get the order offer on 12/8. And you have two Teslas already? WTF? Wonder how many others are in a similar situation. For every CT Owners club member with a low reservation #, there are 5 other people with low reservation #. (Or something like that)

I know. It sucks. And there wasn’t really any supoort or info from Tesla. I actually took advantage of the $1k credit for a model 3 before Dec 31 and when I told them I had a CT order, they could t find it for days. I was so NOT happy those 4 days So my trust in Tesla is not at its highest right now. Which is why I just said “ I’m ordering it now”

 

[JesseDGreat]

Here DownUnder waiting on RHD.....feeling your pain! And l'm at ~75K ! Australians are the 'WOODEN SPOON' winners.

Hang in there brother. I plan to give as much detail as possible when I get mine to help you all out. It won’t be the most scientific feedback ( all our members are geniuses) but I’ll give you the average fat joe review

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

They might have gotten to 11288, but not everyone before that has received the ability to configure. 140,000 people were not given this opportunity, so that is a bit misleading. The invites for FS are not just based on the RN#, but also based on location of RN#. They might get to your RN# block, but you may not get a invite to configure.

The Cyberbeasts do matter since there is a lot of them configured, but only a handful of them made. The third quarter of this year will be dedicated to getting them built for customers. AWD FS is also now going into May, so we are almost into the end of the second quarter. Don't be surprised if we see another 30,000 referral point FS order again.

140,000 may not have received the invitation to order, but how many have? Is it a handful that have been skipped or is it a large percentage? Do you know? I certainly don't. Until that number is made available (and I doubt it ever will be) I am going to assume that Tesla is sending out 10,000-20,000 RN invitations per week, and that maybe 500 are accepting per week. That is because they are still making invitations, and because they are getting close to making 500 Cybertrucks per week. Its a total guess and may be way off, but I do not know why everyone isn't getting the invitation.

There were maybe 30% Beasts being ordered in the very beginning, when invitations were going out to employees, friends, illuminati, and people that attended the unveiling. The number of Beasts being ordered has dropped a lot since then, and I suspect will continue to drop. OK, so they have a backlog of a few hundred Beasts. I do not think that will amount to anything by the end of this year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The problem (for me) is, in order to build 200,000 units, they need to ramp up to 550 units/day. That's a lot of CT's. Production hell it is. When the whip comes down!

It seems that they 'are' ramping up very quickly. If they double production again in 2-3 months then they could be producing 1,000 per week before mid year, and 2,000 per week by the 4th quarter. That would amount to around 50,000 CTs in 2024. Even at a take rate of 20% they would hit RNs in the low 113s by then.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I’m RN11275 and live in SoCall and I know I’m being an impatient dick but it just sucks that there seems to be no real method to the invites. I finally got my invite 01/30 and made the order that day
For a dual. I originally reserved a tri and really didn’t want the foundation but I didn’t trust Tesla not to put me in The back of the line when the non foundation CT come up

still waiting on VIN

I am not understanding your point. You DID get an invitation and you DID submit an order and you WILL get a Cybertruck long before I receive an invitation. Your concerns are surely valid but hey you won the friggen lottery already.

 

[JesseDGreat]

Like I said, I know I’m being an impatient jerk but it doesn’t change the fact that I wish Tesla would have been more upfront and not silent on the invitation process. And yes they did say Texas and CA first. But I was # 6500 going by RN sequence so it appears that I should have received my invite a lot sooner than someone in NY with RN 1128xx. And again, it appears that I should have received the invite with all the other 12/8. But since Tesla didn’t give me much, that’s all I can do is assume. That’s all I’m saying. I’m grateful that I will eventually
Be driving this beauty around!!!!

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