Cybertruck production rate reportedly 60 trucks an hour (as of 12/1/23)

[cvalue13]

Asking the experts on here: (since Elon didn't reveal any details about how many will be built within the next 6 mths or so), what do you think we can expect?

not an expert, but some key historical facts that might be somewhat informative:

In the past, it’s been as much as 4 months between delivery event and first retail production

in the past, within the first 12 months after first retail production, prior launches of new models have delivered as few as 0 units (the Semi), to the most of ~70K total units (model Y), with the S and X having delivered about ~35K total, each

so, if this ramp goes like the Model Y, it could be ~70K units over next 12-16 months

if this ramp goes like the X, could be more like ~35K units over next 12-16 months

of course, this is a wildly new vehicle AND manufacturing line than ever before, so the CT ramp may just go like the CT ramp

all that said, the Q3 deck said that during 2024 the production line’s capacity is 125K - that’s not the units that will be built, but the max the line could build as a daily run rate, assuming no other limiting factors


I’m hopeful for a plentiful ramp, but personally error towards pessimistic in general, and of Tesla’s ramp expectations in particular

plus and finally, I think these announced MSRPs signal that Tesla isn’t planning on producing these like hot cakes soon (esp the tri motor)

Sponsored

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Hv line is “operational”, but a ramp is a ramp

and meanwhile, people seem to assume that what the line is producing is for general retail consumption


if you want some feel, check the VIN tracking page which is ~current-ish as of a ~week ago, and directionally telling

I never heard anyone making those assumptions. In fact, I don’t think it makes a difference who gets them - we know it will take a while to get out to ‘us’. But it would be interesting to know what the production rate is. Anyway, ‘someone’ should post the production rate every eeek so that we can chart the ramp, and it should be someone that won’t be challenged no matter what they say.

 

[ED_SFO]

If it takes a model y 45 seconds to get pushed out....a new complicated vehicle like the CT would probably take 2-3 minutes eventually. Again they don't expect this to be high volume like model y.

 

[cvalue13]

I never heard anyone making those assumptions. In fact, I don’t think it makes a difference who gets them - we know it will take a while to get out to ‘us’. But it would be interesting to know what the production rate is. Anyway, ‘someone’ should post the production rate every eeek so that we can chart the ramp, and it should be someone that won’t be challenged no matter what they say.

That will likely be as closely guarded as was MSRP, until the earlier of Tesla thinking it’s something to crow about, or required public disclosure - which at least I can’t see them blending like they blend S/X and 3/Y.

If at any point it’s reliably their fastest ramp ever, they’ll likely let us know. So long as they haven’t let us know that, I’ll assume it’s slower than to date their fastest ramp ever, the Model Y - ~70K in first 4Qs after production started.

Meanwhile, watch for Tesla’s interest in portraying production strength indirectly, while not actually disclosing stats.

Like a line of trucks ‘coming off the production line’, but with dust on their tires

 

[JBee]

I never heard anyone making those assumptions. In fact, I don’t think it makes a difference who gets them - we know it will take a while to get out to ‘us’. But it would be interesting to know what the production rate is. Anyway, ‘someone’ should post the production rate every eeek so that we can chart the ramp, and it should be someone that won’t be challenged no matter what they say.

The VIN thread is the place to go, some of us are tracking them on a ramp spreadsheet in the background as they come along. That's probably the only viable way to track production numbers atm, but it is time consuming to search for each VIN, so when number get higher it will become difficult.

 

[Crissa]

Personally I don't see 1 truck a minute rushing through the line. That would be like a pace of an automated carwash on high speed. Yes, it's mainly robotic, but robots don't rush precision.

Rick

Well, you put a new one on the line each minute and take one off the line.

But that also doesn't mean the line isn't stopped for most of the day, either,

-Crissa

 

[C T Rick]

Well, you put a new one on the line each minute and take one off the line.

But that also doesn't mean the line isn't stopped for most of the day, either,

-Crissa

The difference was I was at the factory watching the different stages on the ground floor only. Each work cell process would have to be timed for pretty much the same cycle to keep the speed going. I just don't see each step being under 60 seconds. Of course we don't know what speed they had the demo mode running at.

Sure installing the mounted wheels onto the truck is pretty non technical. Body panels would take more precision and time. Same with the glass. Like I said, watching it in person is impressive, but demo mode was not moving the line forward. Just a repetition of each process.

Rick

 

[kdn]

Sandy Monroe at times has said how Tesla fibs about where it is at with technologies, productions, batteries, motors etc. what’s to say that Tesla isn’t sandbagging production capabilities? Who is to say that they aren’t training a second and third shift? Look out Ford and GM! Bring on my CT!

 

[intimidator]

Don't get excited.

Elon said the ramp would be slow ...and start slowly in early 2024.
The best guesses are that Tesla will build about 50,000 to 70,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, and 175,000 in 2025.

That is what I am using for my expectations. September 2025 is when I now hope to take delivery.

PS I am done waiting though. It will get here, when it gets here.

 

[Startreknerd]

Personally I don't see 1 truck a minute rushing through the line. That would be like a pace of an automated carwash on high speed. Yes, it's mainly robotic, but robots don't rush precision.

Rick

It's TAKT time. The Model Y is well under 1 minute per vehicle.

 

[Beyond]

If it takes a model y 45 seconds to get pushed out....a new complicated vehicle like the CT would probably take 2-3 minutes eventually. Again they don't expect this to be high volume like model y.

On the other hand probably the most time consuming process is paint. The Cybertruck has no external paint to layer and dry. It's also modular in design and has huge 1 piece castings that facilitate assembly. When production is ramped up it may actually be easier to assemble than the Model Y.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

That will likely be as closely guarded as was MSRP, until the earlier of Tesla thinking it’s something to crow about, or required public disclosure - which at least I can’t see them blending like they blend S/X and 3/Y.

If at any point it’s reliably their fastest ramp ever, they’ll likely let us know. So long as they haven’t let us know that, I’ll assume it’s slower than to date their fastest ramp ever, the Model Y - ~70K in first 4Qs after production started.

Meanwhile, watch for Tesla’s interest in portraying production strength indirectly, while not actually disclosing stats.

Like a line of trucks ‘coming off the production line’, but with dust on their tires

I wondered about that photograph. So even though Elon posted it you think it was/is fake; that these trucks were not actually coming off the production line? Because that pic makes it look like they could produce quite a few even now, depending on how long they are in each station.

 

[Crissa]

The difference was I was at the factory watching the different stages on the ground floor only. Each work cell process would have to be timed for pretty much the same cycle to keep the speed going. I just don't see each step being under 60 seconds. Of course we don't know what speed they had the demo mode running at.

Sure installing the mounted wheels onto the truck is pretty non technical. Body panels would take more precision and time. Same with the glass. Like I said, watching it in person is impressive, but demo mode was not moving the line forward. Just a repetition of each process.

Rick

Only the average has to be 60 seconds. That just means on longer steps, you have more than one machine doing it, more space in the line for units to queue up while they're being worked upon.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Don't get excited.

Elon said the ramp would be slow ...and start slowly in early 2024.
The best guesses are that Tesla will build about 50,000 to 70,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, and 175,000 in 2025.

That is what I am using for my expectations. September 2025 is when I now hope to take delivery.

PS I am done waiting though. It will get here, when it gets here.

I saw that interview with Sandy Munro and he said 60 stations per hour, not 50 trucks per hour. 60 stations per hour is 1 station per minute and that is really fast, so I doubt that is the case. That said, in every video taken at GigaAustin on Thursday they showed Cybertrucks at every station and that is a LOT of Cybertrucks. Even if they are staying at every station for 10 minutes you would see a Cybertruck come off the line at about 6/hour (roughly 50/day for one shift, or 250/week for a 5-day work week). If the entire line is functional as @cvalue13 says (and I believe), then the ramp is really about how long trucks are at each station and about part availability. Will they have parts enough for a 10-minute per station rate by the end of December? Hell if I know, but as you say, it will get here when it gets here.

Sponsored