Cybertruck production rate reportedly 60 trucks an hour (as of 12/1/23)

[mercer2]

The number of stations on a car assembly line can vary based on the complexity of the manufacturing process and the specific requirements of the automaker. Typically, a car assembly line consists of multiple stations, each dedicated to a specific task in the assembly process. This can include stations for tasks such as welding, painting, installing components, quality control, and final assembly. The number of stations may range from dozens to over a hundred, depending on the level of automation and the intricacy of the manufacturing process implemented by the car manufacturer.

so lets conservatively assume is 120 stations on the complete assembly lane, that would make it a production rate of 0.5 cybertruck per hour and 4 cybertrucks per day. Which will line up with how many units we see from the daily fly overs.

of course this run rate will accelerate continuously until their target is reached.

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[intimidator]

I saw that interview with Sandy Munro and he said 60 stations per hour, not 50 trucks per hour. 60 stations per hour is 1 station per minute and that is really fast, so I doubt that is the case. That said, in every video taken at GigaAustin on Thursday they showed Cybertrucks at every station and that is a LOT of Cybertrucks. Even if they are staying at every station for 10 minutes you would see a Cybertruck come off the line at about 6/hour (roughly 50/day for one shift, or 250/week for a 5-day work week). If the entire line is functional as @cvalue13 says (and I believe), then the ramp is really about how long trucks are at each station and about part availability. Will they have parts enough for a 10-minute per station rate by the end of December? Hell if I know, but as you say, it will get here when it gets here.

All that spin by Tesla fanboys is over optimistic.

Elon said it would be a slow ramp initially, especially in the 1st part of 2024, so I am going by what he says. Best guess 50-70,000 Cybertrucks delivered in 2024 is what I am expecting.

I was ready in 2021. I will be ready summer of 2025.....

 

[cvalue13]

That said, in every video taken at GigaAustin on Thursday they showed Cybertrucks at every station and that is a LOT of Cybertrucks.

for what it’s worth to your calculus, many of those videos showed theatre, not normal Foundation or current status

for example the windshield applying machine was swirling 180° turns for no apparent functional reason other than looking cool - nearly applying the window in one orientation, then backing up to swirl it 180° in another orientation

I don’t take anything as indicative, in terms of what was shown on the line during the event vs the real world status

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The number of stations on a car assembly line can vary based on the complexity of the manufacturing process and the specific requirements of the automaker. Typically, a car assembly line consists of multiple stations, each dedicated to a specific task in the assembly process. This can include stations for tasks such as welding, painting, installing components, quality control, and final assembly. The number of stations may range from dozens to over a hundred, depending on the level of automation and the intricacy of the manufacturing process implemented by the car manufacturer.

so lets conservatively assume is 120 stations on the complete assembly lane, that would make it a production rate of 0.5 cybertruck per hour and 4 cybertrucks per day. Which will line up with how many units we see from the daily fly overs.

of course this run rate will accelerate continuously until their target is reached.

Doesn’t this assume that one truck goes through the whole line before the next begins, and yet during the delivery event we see Cybertrucks at every station. So it might take 2 hours per Cybertruck overall but the spacing between them could be much less. I like this discussion because I know little about vehicle manufacturing but am interested in following the ramp.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

for what it’s worth to your calculus, many of those videos showed theatre, not normal Foundation or current status

for example the windshield applying machine was swirling 180° turns for no apparent functional reason other than looking cool - nearly applying the window in one orientation, then backing up to swirl it 180° in another orientation

I don’t take anything as indicative, in terms of what was shown on the line during the event vs the real world status

No doubt. I do not think that ‘any’ manufacturing was going on, but I also do not think that Tesla would put hundreds of partly-made Cybertrucks at each station for theater. Rather, it would make more sense that they simply turned off the line control where things were and happen to have demo software that can be run any time. That is how I would write it. Then, when all the hoopla is over and everyone has gone home they can restart the line right where they left off. If it works that way of course.

 

[cbrtrckrsrvd112219]

Doesn’t this assume that one truck goes through the whole line before the next begins, and yet during the delivery event we see Cybertrucks at every station. So it might take 2 hours per Cybertruck overall but the spacing between them could be much less. I like this discussion because I know little about vehicle manufacturing but am interested in following the ramp.

it is not relevant how many stations or how long does it take to build a truck. As long as 60 trunks started on assembly line withing an hour and then reach end of assembly line withing an hour timeframe that means 60 trucks exit in one hour. It might take a 24 hours but as long assemble line keeps moving there will be 60 trucks exiting assembly line every hour.

Current production rate for GTF for Model Y is 5000 per week which translates to 2 x 40 hours shifts which equal to 62.5 cars per hour at the end of assembly line. So we already have proven precedent that it is possible, just matter of time for Tesla to iron out kinks to get to current rate for existing model. (no production hell required, although I'm sure Elon will create one just to speed things up )

 

[mercer2]

it is not relevant how many stations or how long does it take to build a truck. As long as 60 trunks started on assembly line withing an hour and then reach end of assembly line withing an hour timeframe that means 60 trucks exit in one hour. It might take a 24 hours but as long assemble line keeps moving there will be 60 trucks exiting assembly line every hour.

Current production rate for GTF for Model Y is 5000 per week which translates to 2 x 40 hours shifts which equal to 62.5 cars per hour at the end of assembly line. So we already have proven precedent that it is possible, just matter of time for Tesla to iron out kinks to get to current rate for existing model. (no production hell required, although I'm sure Elon will create one just to speed things up )

There are no reports on 60 cybertrucks produced per hour.

60 stations per hour could be parallel or synchronous. which doesn't translate to production line output

 

[Warbird]

The only thing we know for sure is the line was designed with a capacity of 125K trucks per year. That means very little. Until there is some sustained rate of production and parts supply and several increases in rate, all bets are off. And even then there will be fits and starts for at least a year. Any estimate of production numbers during that time no one can predict.

 

[firsttruck]

If it takes a model y 45 seconds to get pushed out....a new complicated vehicle like the CT would probably take 2-3 minutes eventually. Again they don't expect this to be high volume like model y.

On the other hand probably the most time consuming process is paint. The Cybertruck has no external paint to layer and dry. It's also modular in design and has huge 1 piece castings that facilitate assembly. When production is ramped up it may actually be easier to assemble than the Model Y.

How about a painted fully assembled car rolling off the end of the production line on AVERAGE about every 40 seconds (of course at times when line is running normally).
Some times it is a little faster.

Tesla Giga Shanghai Model Y

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Tesmanian commenter p3ngwin
it's not a car made in 40 seconds, it's a car rolling off the assembly line every 40 seconds. There are multiple parallel lines. It takes about 3 HOURS to make a Tesla, about 1/3 the time it takes to make the next fastest car from a legacy auto maker in their factory, in this case, Toyota's factory that makes a car in about 9 hours.


Tesla Giga Shanghai Produces One Car in Under 40 Seconds
Jul 29, 2023
By Eva Fox
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...-shanghai-produces-one-car-in-just-40-seconds

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every 35-40 seconds

Inside Giga Shanghai - New footage from August 2023
Tons of new footage and confirmation of a bunch of things we wanted to see including NO front casting or structural battery packs on Model Y.
Aug 21, 2023
My Tesla Weekend

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World's first reveal of the Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai!
How to make a Tesla Model Y...Tesla Giga Shanghai factory unveiled for the first time in the world!
Aug 20, 2023
MOCAR ( Korean YT channel)



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Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory manager told interviewer: every 35-40 seconds.

An office tour to Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory
Are you curious about the working environment in Tesla? Today, Joyce is going to bring you to Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai.
2023 Jul 27
Shanghai Daily

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every 32 seconds
【2022Jan14】MODEL Y ten minutes \ Giga shanghai\4K # 402
This time the MODEL Y shipped eighteen units in ten minutes, I don't know if that's right, it seems to have increased compared to the previous two weeks?
Wu Wa 17.1K
Jan 14, 2022


every 38 seconds.
【2022Jan.21】Giga shanghai\Ten minutes of the Model Y \ 4K # 408
This week's Model Y observation shows sixteen Model Y cars leaving the gates, again down from 18 last week, but it seems to be an average, as 14 more were slightly more in previous weeks, and perhaps the internal line revamp is starting at the Model Y as well.
Wu Wa
Jan 22, 2022



every 41 seconds.
【2022Feb11】Model Y 10 minutes \ Giga shanghai\4K # 414
I saw 14 Tesla Y's in ten minutes, how many did you see. This capacity seems to maintain the normal production of previous days.
Wu Wa
Feb 12, 2022



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[Jhodgesatmb]

The only thing we know for sure is the line was designed with a capacity of 125K trucks per year. That means very little. Until there is some sustained rate of production and parts supply and several increases in rate, all bets are off. And even then there will be fits and starts for at least a year. Any estimate of production numbers during that time no one can predict.

Actually, what we know is that Tesla told Texas regulators that the initial capacity would be 125K/year.

 

[cvalue13]

Actually, what we know is that Tesla told Texas regulators that the initial capacity would be 125K/year.

that’s line capacity, though

that’s not telling of expected run rate of builds


I can have a machine capable of producing 125k hamburgers a year, but if I don’t have enough buns, or if the machine is still overcooking the patties, I don’t have 125K burgers

 

[Poncho11]

Probably being captain obvious here, but there’s not just one line to produce 1 truck per minute. There several lines going to produce a bunch of trucks at the same time.

There is only one line, I work maintenance at Toyota and I can assure you there is only one line. That being said I would expect SOP to start in a few weeks and ramp from 50 a week to 500 and then 1000 in the coming weeks and 500 a day @2 shifts the rest of the year.

 

[rbalkun]

or if the machine is still overcooking the patties

Is someone overcooking the front castings?

 

[ecotrials]

The number of stations on a car assembly line can vary based on the complexity of the manufacturing process and the specific requirements of the automaker. Typically, a car assembly line consists of multiple stations, each dedicated to a specific task in the assembly process. This can include stations for tasks such as welding, painting, installing components, quality control, and final assembly. The number of stations may range from dozens to over a hundred, depending on the level of automation and the intricacy of the manufacturing process implemented by the car manufacturer.

so lets conservatively assume is 120 stations on the complete assembly lane, that would make it a production rate of 0.5 cybertruck per hour and 4 cybertrucks per day. Which will line up with how many units we see from the daily fly overs.

of course this run rate will accelerate continuously until their target is reached.

I think you math is somewhat suspect. You are using 60 stations per hour, so an average of 1 minute to complete a single station. It doesn't matter for run rate of the line how many stations there are. For any particular vehicle it would take the number of stations = minutes. So in your example, 2 hours, or as you say, 1/2 a vehicle per hour.
Your math assumes they do not start the next vehicle until they complete the previous vehicle. Oops! They would start the next vehicle at the first station as soon as the previous vehicle clears station one. So the run rate, assuming all stations can complete their task in a minute, is 60 vehicles per hour, not 4. The line run rate will actually be determined by the slowest station, because the line is like a chain, and can only move at the slowest station speed. If one station takes 2 minutes, then the line rate is 30 per hour. Until they bifurcation the line at that station and put in a parallel station at the same place in the serial line, or figure out how to speed up this particular station. So... depending on how many shifts will determine daily output. If we use the one station per minute as the maximum time for the slowest station, then we get 60 vehicles per hour times the effective time of a shift. Assuming not all Optimus assemblers, lunch break, coffee break meetings etc, probably a maximum of 7 hours. So a theoretical max of 520 vehicles per shift. Adding another shift or another line = 1040 per day, doing both = 2080 per day. Assuming things go awry drop worst station speed to 2 minutes, halve the one minute rate. With a single line and shift, 210 vehicles per day, but certainly not 4. Your opinion may vary, but the math is pretty straight forward. Tesla will chip away the time per station by all means necessary but focus on the slowest ones to increase the run rate.
So @210 per day (MY current best guestimate) is 1470 per week or @ 30 day month 12,600 per month. So assuming hiccups, perhaps 6,000 to 10,000 per month?? YMMV, Paul

 

[ecotrials]

Oops of my own. 520 was a typo. Should have been 420 (60x7). So all other calls off by the same percentage.
So roughly best guess 5k to 10k a month, and ramping (no guesses on this from me).

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