Cybertruck production rate ~80 units daily (currently as of 2/24/24)

[Clockers]

I think the take rate IS very low... the number of people on this forum waiting for a non FS is quite high... and these are enthusiasts.

People get very excited about this truck and dream about it... but when you actually have to commit to a $100K truck, you are flooded with doubt and anxiety. Most people reserved a long time ago and figured by the time the day came, they'd be able to afford it. But the reality is most people's earnings do not change significantly.

The average new car price is $49K, and the average vehicle on the road is 12 years old (last frame of reference of pain for buying a vehicle) meaning that most vehicle owners are not used to today's average car prices, let alone the idea of buying a $100k vehicle.

I can comfortably afford the Cybertruck (I live far below the means my salary can afford so I have buffer room for something like this - but by no means is this nothing to me, $100k is still a LOT to me) and mentally was prepared to spend up to $100k... but this still seems EXTREMELY crazy to me, when I know I'd be just as happy with a $50k new car, and have never paid more than $47k for a new vehicle.

I'm basically in it for the experience at this point and figure due to demand, I'll be able to sell it at the 1 year point with minimal losses if I realize this is not for me.

I agree, 80k - 100k truck/car purchase for most Americans is a lot of money. Based on the sales of the S and X I don't see them selling more than a 100k-120k year one and dropping to around 70k going forward. I think for the folks that are really serious to buying one this year will have the opportunity. The website still says late 2024, for orders. I think many of the orders will be canceled when the payment page pops up and folks have to commit to a 1.2k monthly payment plus insurance.

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Honestly, 80 per day or 50 per day or 150 per day is sort of meaningless to a queue that is not really a queue.
I was 100,000 by my reservation number, and the people that were 40,000 in front of me got their invites only two weeks before me. I ordered on 1/18 and no vin yet. I have not seen any January ordered vins yet.
I did hear from Dirty Tesla that he knows two people that did not even reserve, they used their 30,000 points to initiate a new order and take delivery in 45 days.
So, calling it a queue, is really is not a good name for what we are dealing with here.

Tesla has been, at times, going through 10,000-20,000 RNs per week, so 40,000 in 2 weeks is about right. You are missing the important number and that is the conversion rate. If they sent out invitations to 20,000 RN holders and only 1,000 accepted and ordered, then that is a 5% conversion rate. But you DID get an invitation so I don't understand the concern.

Tesla made it very clear that people could use their 30,000 points to speed up VIN allocation but that they had to have reservations to take part in the program. So you have direct evidence to the contrary? That is, you personally know people (that you haven't since murdered) that used points without a reservation to get a Cybertruck? I think that there would be any number of people willing to do them harm.

At the end of the day we know that Tesla hasn't been going through the RN list strictly, and there have been some statements by Tesla as to why and many guesses not confirmed in any way by Tesla here and elsewhere as to why. I would say that anyone that has received an invitation and ordered has no complaint. I made an order for my Model Y in September of 2021 and was told that the lead time was 2-3 months (!) and it ended up being 6 months. In fact I was no upset because, at the time, I was hoping that Tesla would build in certain features by the time my car was ready. There is 'always' a tradeoff between getting something sooner and getting something later. Why is it that the people who get something sooner always seem the loudest complainers?

 

[Gigahorse]

Honestly, 80 per day or 50 per day or 150 per day is sort of meaningless to a queue that is not really a queue.
I was 100,000 by my reservation number, and the people that were 40,000 in front of me got their invites only two weeks before me. I ordered on 1/18 and no vin yet. I have not seen any January ordered vins yet.
I did hear from Dirty Tesla that he knows two people that did not even reserve, they used their 30,000 points to initiate a new order and take delivery in 45 days.
So, calling it a queue, is really is not a good name for what we are dealing with here.

It is a signup list and the order in which you signed up is only one factor, things like location, influencer status, willingness to pay for FS etc are far more weighted. People with 113 reservation numbers taking delivery in Feb while people with 1128s have not gotten an invite yet.

 

[Outdoors]

If I remember in a Sandy Munro video. Something about how they will eliminate the need to have to hand move the bodies around on carts, or if they are it is automated via those strange transporter things. Doesn't seem like they are there yet.

 

[cvalue13]

I wonder how the media addresses the reality that Tesla has, every year, increase sales about 50% despite the ‘other guys’ reducing sales. If there really was a contracting demand for BEVs Tesla sales would tank as well.

if there’s a saturation curve, there’s no doubt that Tesla’s would be lagging the others due to popularity

but the past 6-9 months of price cuts can’t float everything for too long

 

[MeadowShade]

Tesla has been, at times, going through 10,000-20,000 RNs per week, so 40,000 in 2 weeks is about right. You are missing the important number and that is the conversion rate. If they sent out invitations to 20,000 RN holders and only 1,000 accepted and ordered, then that is a 5% conversion rate. But you DID get an invitation so I don't understand the concern.

Tesla made it very clear that people could use their 30,000 points to speed up VIN allocation but that they had to have reservations to take part in the program. So you have direct evidence to the contrary? That is, you personally know people (that you haven't since murdered) that used points without a reservation to get a Cybertruck? I think that there would be any number of people willing to do them harm.

At the end of the day we know that Tesla hasn't been going through the RN list strictly, and there have been some statements by Tesla as to why and many guesses not confirmed in any way by Tesla here and elsewhere as to why. I would say that anyone that has received an invitation and ordered has no complaint. I made an order for my Model Y in September of 2021 and was told that the lead time was 2-3 months (!) and it ended up being 6 months. In fact I was no upset because, at the time, I was hoping that Tesla would build in certain features by the time my car was ready. There is 'always' a tradeoff between getting something sooner and getting something later. Why is it that the people who get something sooner always seem the loudest complainers?

I am NOY mad. Just laying out what I see. We know very little.
My source for the two orders without reservations by using points came from a recent video by Dirty Tesla. I said that.
so I was maybe 100,000 in line and I don’t know what the adoption rate is, do you?
so they sent out 40,000 invites in that two weeks? Only 1,000 accepted? Really?

My point is simple.
Too many guesses on too many variables leads to a predictions that is just a guess.

156 CT’s in the loading lot today. Is that from today last night, last three days? What? Tesla is not saying so we can’t know what anything means because we have no idea how long the line is in front of us, or how fast it is moving. Guess please!

 

[cgladue]

Honestly, 80 per day or 50 per day or 150 per day is sort of meaningless to a queue that is not really a queue.
I was 100,000 by my reservation number, and the people that were 40,000 in front of me got their invites only two weeks before me. I ordered on 1/18 and no vin yet. I have not seen any January ordered vins yet.
I did hear from Dirty Tesla that he knows two people that did not even reserve, they used their 30,000 points to initiate a new order and take delivery in 45 days.
So, calling it a queue, is really is not a good name for what we are dealing with here.

i mean your state isnt even really delivering trucks yet, at least from the data crowdsourced here. it is a real queue. in every single instance of anything involving waiting for something there are cases of VIPs and ways to get around the line. (Disney and fast pass, Airport and Global Entry, iPhone and influencers getting them for free, etc) its just part of the game you should know that by now, the problem here i think is we have 50 seperate lists, going at 50 seperate rates and its frustrating for people to see 1 state moving faster then another and thinking they are being skipped. just remember your reservation number only matters IN YOUR STATE it means nothing to compare against an order in CA or TX. Why are they holding the other states back ? why not slow down the states already taking dewliveryies to start other states? whatever the reason we will never know, is it the cold and snow tesla is waiting on for the northern/eastern states to start delivering ? california is almost to january 1 orders already yet massachusetts has done 0. just hang int here, you waited this long your truck is coming

 

[MeadowShade]

I really don't care about a "fair" queue as much as I care about communication. You gave some really good reasons about leaving NE and winter weather states out for now ... fine. Just give us some kind of update. One poor guy in this forum got 30k taken out of his account when they gave him a vin and it has been 60 days and still no CT. Now that sucks. Just say what you already know instead of allowing us to speculate ... not very many good surprises it seems.

 

[MeadowShade]

It is a signup list and the order in which you signed up is only one factor, things like location, influencer status, willingness to pay for FS etc are far more weighted. People with 113 reservation numbers taking delivery in Feb while people with 1128s have not gotten an invite yet.

I totally got that ... but ... would you like, and do you think it would be a good thing if they just told us each month where we are in the line as far as expected delivery date. Look, they can choose whatever criteria they want, I just wish they would stop changing the goal posts of expectations that most of us have had since well, 2019.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

It is a signup list and the order in which you signed up is only one factor, things like location, influencer status, willingness to pay for FS etc are far more weighted. People with 113 reservation numbers taking delivery in Feb while people with 1128s have not gotten an invite yet.

There have only been 2-3 113s so far and they have all been in the 'value' group (employees, friends, influencers). There are a few of us low-113 CTOC members who will, if we get an invite, let the world know in short order.

 

[Beyond]

There have only been 2-3 113s so far and they have all been in the 'value' group (employees, friends, influencers). There are a few of us low-113 CTOC members who will, if we get an invite, let the world know in short order.

My RN112859xxx "Design your Cybertruck" email arrived on 2/20 if that's any help.

 

[Gigahorse]

There have only been 2-3 113s so far and they have all been in the 'value' group (employees, friends, influencers). There are a few of us low-113 CTOC members who will, if we get an invite, let the world know in short order.

I mean there are at least 3 influencers in the 113 group who do not work at Tesla who have posted about it, how many haven't published the info.

 

[Roy2001]

Fantastic, at this rate, I'm going to get mine in 2030 .... And I'm 275k in the queue. Accounting for attrition obviously.

Oh mine would be year 2050.

 

[MeadowShade]

My RN112859xxx "Design your Cybertruck" email arrived on 2/20 if that's any help.

See? No understandable plan. My reservation is 112841... And I got my e-mail to order and did so on 1/18. 5 weeks ago.
I hate this mushroom mentality toward customers!

 

[firsttruck]

That's probably true, but I look at it a little differently, especially for people that don't already have a reservation. Initial demand is not very relevant to where this is going, what matters is continuing demand for non-Foundation Editions as volumes increase and cost to produce falls. Initial reviews of the Cybertruck, indicate this is a truck that will have growing new demand for years to come, that will likely outstrip the ability of Tesla to meet that demand.

Most people still don't even know what this truck is, or only have a vague idea that it's an odd-looking vehicle that is all about looking different or futuristic. They have no idea about the strong rigid chassis creating more secure driving dynamics, the roomy and airy cabin that comes alive with one of the best sounding OEM stereos on the market, the suspension that can rise or lower to suit conditions, or how the hard unpainted exoskeleton and toughened glass makes it impervious to everyday dings, dents and cracks while also avoiding the unsightly rust so common to painted steel vehicles in the rust belt. Yes, they actually named a region of the country after this problem!

Those who don't make reservations soon, will be waiting a long time.

And comes standard with heavy-duty bed liner and heavy-duty powered retractable bed cover (The Vault).

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