Flippers are done! 150+ Cybertruck for-sale listings

[FutureTruck]

If the CT depreciates like my Model X did it will be 40k by the end of the year and in line with early CT pricing announcement

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[U92]

If the CT depreciates like my Model X did it will be 40k by the end of the year and in line with early CT pricing announcement

The OP fails to post how many are still over $200k....

 

[FutureTruck]

Yea but a lot of those have been up 30 or 60 days and when was the last one that sold for more than 180?

 

[StainlessVoyager]

Biggest depreciation hit for Model X, Y, Plaid is Tesla lowering new vehicle price.

 

[KrennPowerSports]

a couple things, first the "cheap" ones listed may have been sold the minute they were listed, have liens, no titles, or have issues etc... There are always "I found one cheaper" but cheap things sell first and fast and leave the higher priced ones to sit a while. I am in a business where I see this type of thing happen all the time. My take is this..... The trucks sold currently will hold at LEAST retail new value for well over the next year.... the demand is high AND will just stay there, once then get to retail, The sellers won't sell for less than retail AND buyers will gladly pay retail for a used one and not have to wait. There won't be a lot of "profit" but the value will hold at full tilt retail for a LONG time. Also the more out there being seen, the demand will likely still grow with all the "haters" being converted.

 

[U92]

Its still a brand new truck that few can get lol Hardly any beasts are even out yet to regular people... So you were wrong...

Yea but a lot of those have been up 30 or 60 days and when was the last one that sold for more than 180?

 

[FutureTruck]

Last three that sold at auction, clean title, etc were all under 150k
I don't see the price on used CTs going up

 

[DittoDan]

If you order the truck today AWD and CB what do we estimate is the delivery date?
FS skipped original line but many didn't go for FS.
So lets say Tesla end FS at some point then line returns to first day orders.
Lets say to date they got 2M orders lets say many cancelled after price and range were announced. Lets just say 1M orders to date
Lets say they will make 250K trucks this year( very unlikely)
Am I right to say a person ordering today should get it at the end of next year or even later.
To me numbers seem plausible.
One caveat is on CT order page they list late 2024 if ordered now. I would assume they will prioritize new orders who accept FS over day 1 orders.

According to your words above, If I'm not mistaken, 1,000,000 divided by 250,000 = 4 years. So, how would someone get there truck by the end of next year? More like 2028 (2024 + 4 = 2028).

Am I missing something?

Dan the Man from Michigan

 

[StainlessVoyager]

I agree with you Dan. I purposely halved my math to make it the worst or best possible scenario.
I think the thread has this pessimistic view on future value of the CT. I am not buying the kool-aid 100% so Instead of 2M orders I halved it and then again instead of 4 years (1M/250K) I halved it again.

 

[FutureTruck]

Does the number of future orders really matter though if they sell 100,000 or 1,000,000 if they are already selling for 130k on the used market does it matter the volume?

 

[AnthonyJ]

By this time next year, you’ll be able to grab a new one in inventory. This will be a higher volume vehicle than S and X, but it will not be sold out forever. Tesla will adjust pricing to balance supply and demand. Mark my words.

 

[BESTNJ]

My crystal ball is not as good as yours is but in 24hours the price of trucks has dropped another 10k or so and there are 4 more listed on cargurus alone. That to me does not signal prices going up.

Great post, my thoughts exactly. Also when rates come down in the next year or so tesla can raise prices because a lot more people might look to finance at low rates a new toy.... The 80k will be bare bones, I doubt they give a lot of the options the fs or cyberbeast gets.

OP and U92, thanks for sharing your views!

Beside the six (6) points that I mentioned earlier, I want to throw a few more points at you, again, all for exploratory discussion, and I try to be as objective as possible here:

1. All (probably MOST) of the Cybertruck auctions out there are likely NOT being supported by Tesla, in other words, the flippers did not receive Tesla's permission to sell, which in fact, are in direct violation of the "no-resell for 1 year" contract term. The CT sellers have no idea when Tesla will be coming after them and they are just gambling on the fact that Tesla may not be going after them or busy setting up scam to hide their "ill-gotten" gain, isn't that a mental burden. As far as I know, Tesla can still take legal action against the sellers at a time Tesla feels convenient - aka: whenever Tesla's legal department wants to take action, THAT seller will likely face the music. Based on my previous experience in the legal field, I would guess Tesla will likely go after someone with high-profile public image (i.e. the case of Ford Motor Crop vs. John Cena), or go after someone that they know they can win easily. All it takes is a few cases/ court proceedings/ settlements or a few X postings by Elon, Tesla will get the message out.

2. Tesla has completed step #1 against some flippers; some unauthorized sellers of CT have already gotten their account banned. That is step 01 for laying the legal ground work.

3. Everyone buying at auction TODAY for any Cybertruck FS (within the first year of original sale) are at risk NOT getting service by Tesla. All it takes for Tesla is to push a few buttons to achieve that. Again, I personally don't think Tesla will go through that extreme route, but the fear alone is enough to scare many potential buyers away from buying it today vs. 1 year later at a "LEGAL" auction. Most buyers are NOT stupid, most people want to buy a CLEAN vehicle knowing it is legit, today's auctions are just not "clean-and-clear" transactions.

4. From a psychological standpoint, most of the flippers "illegally" offering their Cybertruck for sale at auctions TODAY ordered their CT or multiple CTs immediately AFTER the launch event on 11/21/2019. Human nature telld me that most of them want to flip their CTs since Day #1 and they put that $100 reservation fee down since minute #1. Naturally, they will get their CT ahead of everyone else. After all, a true flipper will not wait more than 2 days to order the CT after its launch event. The suddent influx of CT auction listings are matching the flippers' time-line as I mentioned above. So, you won't see 500 or 2,000 CT listings keep coming day in and day out, that just not possible. Unless all Day #1 - #2 are filled with original flippers, which is hard to believe. On top of that, Tesla is ONLY selling 1 CT to 1 accout holder, or possibly 1 live person. So, one flipper selling multiple CTs is just unlikely.

5. Sure, someone can turn into a flipper midway through. But, tell me how many people you know like the CT at first, waited 4.5 years for it, and risked getting sued by Tesla, just to sell the CT for $30k profit after spending $110k. Erhh, I hope it is not too many. Why not put the money in a high yield CD with zero risk and make that money while sleeping.

6. For people that ordered the Cybertruck BEAST FS (Tri-motors) back in mid-December 2023, they won't see their BEAST until Q3 - Q4 of 2024.... and that's by Tesla's own estimate. There are tons people that ordered the Cybertruck FD AWD back in December with the promise of Q1 delivery, well, today is Q2 2024, they still did not receive VIN (AKA: Tesla hasn't even bought the raw material to produce their Cybertruck FS AWD). So, going back to the wait time... even just half million people (very conservative number) really want their Cybertruck in the entire U.S., with Tesla production time-line and capability, the waiting time of 3 year is very realistic for someone who wants one TODAY. Or, that person can buy at a legal auction by Q1 2025. And even by then, Cybertruck FS will still be a rare sighting in public roadways.

Based on the previous points and the additional details I provided just now, I am optimistic that if you have a 365 days old, low millage (less than 9,000 miles) clean Cybertruck FS in next April, the chance you would lose money on the secondary market is extremely slim.

Cheers!

 

[Platinumsmith]

I think the stockholders ordering will be the end of the foundation series run.

That would be great

 

[HaulingAss]

According to your words above, If I'm not mistaken, 1,000,000 divided by 250,000 = 4 years. So, how would someone get there truck by the end of next year? More like 2028 (2024 + 4 = 2028).

Am I missing something?

Dan the Man from Michigan

Yes, you are missing that the conversion rate for reservations to orders is not even close to 100%, by my estimate it's somewhere around 20%. But this does not mean you will be able to walk in buy one off the delivery center floor in a year because new orders keep coming in. Tesla will try to manage the price to maintain a slight backlog of orders.

Never underestimate the number of new buyers who will put an order in when they understand the truck is real, and it's available within 60 days.

 

[FutureTruck]

Only one report of Telsa cutting someone off from buying Teslas in the future. Never heard a report of Tesla refusing to service vehicles, if they had put that in the agreement likely flipping would not have been a thing. Meanwhile there are CTs selling for $120-$150k and more listed every day, so flipping is very prevalent but the good news is they are not making much of a profit.

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