Cybertruck was the 5th bestselling EV in 2024

[scottf200]

... It looks like it could even take longer unless the single motor Cybertruck starts sales in the next year. I won't hold my breath on the single motor Cybertruck coming out too soon. However unlike the range extender, I bet Tesla does eventually start selling it.

Just looked at the CT order page. They no longer are showing a deliver estimate (guess they didn't like the 'look' of that).

Re: Range Extender ... is supposedly "mid 2025".

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[HaulingAss]

That's what happens when you spend more effort on styling than engineering ?‍

Not really. That's what happens when you design a gutless gas-guzzling vehicle and try to sell it for over $50K.

Even the most efficient engine in the Bronco gets the same crappy MPG as a full-sized pickup and the most powerful, fuel thirsty engine is slower than crap with a 6.2 second 0-60. Throw in maintenance and reliability issues, a cramped interior and cargo capacity and a dated, boxy shape and you have to ask yourself, how many will actually sell? The styling is only a secondary problem, not a primary problem.

 

[HaulingAss]

Troy used registrations of the S/X/ and CT to get his number and they are 7k lower than Cox.

Is it your claim that Troy has compiled registration data from all 50 states?

I don't think so.

His numbers will probably get closer to the truth as time goes by. He is always adjusting them.

 

[HaulingAss]

It's safe to say that everyone (including me) expected Cybertruck sales to rise in 4Q, because:

- the $20,000 non-Foundation discount became available in October
- Tesla offered significant end-of-year incentives
- after the election, there was a perceived threat to the $7500 tax credit

But despite these factors, Cybertruck sales apparently fell. So what's up with that?

The $7500 tax credit was never available in 2024 (on any version of the Cybertruck). So it makes no sense that the expectation the credit would go away due to the election would cause people to rush out and buy a truck (that didn't qualify for the credit anyway).

The credit was available through 2024 for the Lightning Pro, XLT, and LARIAT models and yet the Cybertruck, without the credit, still outsold the Lightning.

Instead, the Cybertruck became eligible for the $7500 credit in 2025 (regardless of who won the election). Go figure. That should drive some additional sales this year, at least until the credit is potentially repealed.

 

[YDR37]

Is it your claim that Troy has compiled registration data from all 50 states?

I don't think so.

His numbers will probably get closer to the truth as time goes by. He is always adjusting them.

No, I don’t think Troy gets vehicle registration data from all 50 states. However, he does get registration data from European and Asian countries. In most other countries, it's relatively easy to get such data, because registration is handled by a single office at the national level (as opposed to 50 state-level offices in the US).

But the Cybertruck isn't sold in Europe or Asia, so why is that relevant? Because Telsa reports global sales for the Model S/Model X/Cybertruck combined. That figure includes European/Asian sales for Models S/X.

Troy knows the foreign S/X registration numbers, and he can subtract them from the global total for the S/X/CT. That leaves just the US numbers. He still has to estimate the proportions going to S, X, and CT, but he can do that using (for example) California registration data, which is publicly available, and which alone accounts for nearly one-third of the US EV numbers.

To summarize, Cox estimates S/X/CT sales in the US, but apparently does not take foreign sales of the S/X into account. Troy does, and he believes that this makes his estimates more accurate.

 

[YDR37]

The $7500 tax credit was never available in 2024 (on any version of the Cybertruck). So it makes no sense that the expectation the credit would go away due to the election would cause people to rush out and buy a truck (that didn't qualify for the credit anyway).

OK, valid point. The tax credit issue only applies to other Teslas, not the CT specifically.

But the fundamental question remains: why did Cybertruck sales fall from 3Q 2024 to 4Q? The price of the CT obviously dropped a lot in 4Q with the introduction of the non-Foundation Series. And then Tesla sweetened the deal with end-of-year incentives. I expected sales to go up, not down, and I don't think I was alone.

The credit was available through 2024 for the Lightning Pro, XLT, and LARIAT models and yet the Cybertruck, without the credit, still outsold the Lightning.

It doesn't really matter -- neither the Lightning nor the CT are making much of a dent in the huge North American pickup market, and both are selling at rates far below production capacity. Even if you have the best-selling EV pickup in the US, that's like having the best-selling snowmobile in Florida.

 

[HaulingAss]

OK, valid point. The tax credit issue only applies to other Teslas, not the CT specifically.

But the fundamental question remains: why did Cybertruck sales fall from 3Q 2024 to 4Q? The price of the CT obviously dropped a lot in 4Q with the introduction of the non-Foundation Series. And then Tesla sweetened the deal with end-of-year incentives. I expected sales to go up, not down, and I don't think I was alone.


It doesn't really matter -- neither the Lightning nor the CT are making much of a dent in the huge North American pickup market, and both are selling at rates far below production capacity. Even if you have the best-selling EV pickup in the US, that's like having the best-selling snowmobile in Florida.

I don't have to go out on a limb to say watch what happens in 2025. Most people still have no clue how good of a vehicle the Cybertruck is. It takes time for people to learn and understand, beyond all the silly misinformation put out to try to slow demand. For every 100 people I meet, only one has a reasonably good understanding of what they are looking at, what it can do, how smooth and quiet it feels to ride in, how good the stereo sounds, how responsive it handles, how convenient the motorized tonneau is, how capable it is off-road, how high the suspension goes, etc, etc, etc.

Sure, some people, early adopters, wanted it right off, just because it was unique. But if you look around you will notice most people don't aspire to be unique when they purchase a vehicle, they want to know why it will improve their lives. And people are still ignorant (or worse, misinformed) about the Cybertruck.

At it's current price point it's already a screaming deal for those who can afford it and want the convenience of an electric truck. In it's second year much of the uncertainty about pricing and reliability will be gone, and an increasing number of people will come to know and understand how good it really is. There are already almost 40K of them in the wild, that's like seeds in the ground. Watch what happens in the spring.

 

[HaulingAss]

Troy knows the foreign S/X registration numbers, and he can subtract them from the global total for the S/X/CT. That leaves just the US numbers. He still has to estimate the proportions going to S, X, and CT, but he can do that using (for example) California registration data, which is publicly available, and which alone accounts for nearly one-third of the US EV numbers.

You basically just admitted that Troys numbers have a lot of opportunity for major errors, whether you realized it or not.

 

[voxel]

I don't have to go out on a limb to say watch what happens in 2025. Most people still have no clue how good of a vehicle the Cybertruck is. It takes time for people to learn and understand, beyond all the silly misinformation put out to try to slow demand. For every 100 people I meet, only one has a reasonably good understanding of what they are looking at, what it can do, how smooth and quiet it feels to ride in, how good the stereo sounds, how responsive it handles, how convenient the motorized tonneau is, how capable it is off-road, how high the suspension goes, etc, etc, etc.

Sure, some people, early adopters, wanted it right off, just because it was unique. But if you look around you will notice most people don't aspire to be unique when they purchase a vehicle, they want to know why it will improve their lives. And people are still ignorant (or worse, misinformed) about the Cybertruck.

At it's current price point it's already a screaming deal for those who can afford it and want the convenience of an electric truck. In it's second year much of the uncertainty about pricing and reliability will be gone, and an increasing number of people will come to know and understand how good it really is. There are already almost 40K of them in the wild, that's like seeds in the ground. Watch what happens in the spring.

I serious doubt the buying public will change their minds. The Lightning is a fantastic version of the F-150 and it still struggles to sell. It rides like a couch on wheels (and quiet) and Tom M. of InsideEVs loves his and keeps preaching that. The CT is easily Tesla’s best EV (quiet and smooth) but I still can’t convince fellow Tesla owners to believe me.

The reality is an $80K vehicle… and EV too… so it has a limited market in the US. It will sell in S/X numbers not 100-200K like other trucks. Look at $80K Sequoias and $80K Rivian R1S and their annual sales numbers. It’s not that many. A $60K AWD version with 300+ miles of range will sell 100K easily.

 

[YDR37]

You basically just admitted that Troys numbers have a lot of opportunity for major errors, whether you realized it or not.

I expect that Troy would admit this himself. And the same would be true for any other outside analyst, without access to Tesla's internal data.

But the fact is that Troy consistently gets close to the numbers that Tesla does release (for 4Q 2024, for example, he was within 0.3% for total Tesla production and within 1.1% for total Tesla deliveries). That gives him credibility when he estimates the numbers that Tesla doesn't release.

 

[HaulingAss]

I expect that Troy would admit this himself. And the same would be true for any other outside analyst, without access to Tesla's internal data.

But the fact is that Troy consistently gets close to the numbers that Tesla does release (for 4Q 2024, for example, he was within 0.3% for total Tesla production and within 1.1% for total Tesla deliveries). That gives him credibility when he estimates the numbers that Tesla doesn't release.

Worship Troy all you want, I've seen enough to know he's far from infallible.

Tesla has an earnings conference call in 2 weeks, January 29th. It will be interesting to see if Troy changes his estimate before that (or after). More inventory/in transit data points for S,X and other can be helpful, even though Tesla will probably not announce 2024 Cybertruck retail sales. There is the potential Tesla will tell us how many they sold in the first year (but I wouldn't count on it).

 

[YDR37]

Tesla will probably not announce 2024 Cybertruck retail sales. There is the potential Tesla will tell us how many they sold in the first year (but I wouldn't count on it).

No, they probably won't. And that lack of transparency is exactly what makes Troy Teslike so influential.

If Tesla simply provided basic data, like "2024 Cybertruck retail sales", then nobody would care about Troy's spreadsheets. But Tesla doesn't do that, so Troy has 165,000 followers on X, which is pretty good for a number-crunching data nerd.

 

[WormtownKris]

I don't have to go out on a limb to say watch what happens in 2025. Most people still have no clue how good of a vehicle the Cybertruck is. It takes time for people to learn and understand, beyond all the silly misinformation put out to try to slow demand. For every 100 people I meet, only one has a reasonably good understanding of what they are looking at, what it can do, how smooth and quiet it feels to ride in, how good the stereo sounds, how responsive it handles, how convenient the motorized tonneau is, how capable it is off-road, how high the suspension goes, etc, etc, etc.

Sure, some people, early adopters, wanted it right off, just because it was unique. But if you look around you will notice most people don't aspire to be unique when they purchase a vehicle, they want to know why it will improve their lives. And people are still ignorant (or worse, misinformed) about the Cybertruck.

At it's current price point it's already a screaming deal for those who can afford it and want the convenience of an electric truck. In it's second year much of the uncertainty about pricing and reliability will be gone, and an increasing number of people will come to know and understand how good it really is. There are already almost 40K of them in the wild, that's like seeds in the ground. Watch what happens in the spring.

I have to agree here, although I think it will be kind of a slow roll due to the price point. I always drive with the tonneau cover down. I constantly have people say to me, "That's the Cyber TRUCK, right?" And then a couple of questions in, they say, "Now is it actually a pickup?" And their minds explode when I roll up the tonneau and they see the 6' bed with no wheel wells. Many typical consumers apparently think this weird spaceship thing is just a huge crossover car, and that the "Truck" in Cyber Truck is just a misnomer like the Wagon Queen Family Truckster.

I fully expect that it will take real life use cases before people organically realize this is a highly functional value vehicle, and not just a whimsical weirdmobile. My friends are inviting me up to ski country "so we can try that thing out in the snow." If my company had one equipped with racks, making deliveries, it would convert more folks than I do if I park on the driveway and walk out with a tape measure. There aren't a ton of residential construction sites where I can play king of the mountain without looking like a douchey showoff. But if someone says, "Kris, can you make it up to that flat spot by the side deck", I can raise the suspension, casually park it where they ask, and they are quite impressed that I can match the one jacked up Raptor that's onsite.

At $75k plus, there are a finite number of pickup (or halo vehicle) buyers in the market. But as they hit better price points, and especially when they eventually release a capable RWD model, the CyberTruck will consistently increase market share. It won't be exponential like the Model 3 and Y, but it will be gradual and sustained growth.

 

[65SoYoLO]

Not that this means anything but the last snow we got was 8 days prior to this picture I took.

they must have towed all the CT's up that hill since they are so bad in the snow... /sarcasm

 

[SCTesla]

Is it your claim that Troy has compiled registration data from all 50 states?

I don't think so.

His numbers will probably get closer to the truth as time goes by. He is always adjusting them.

He said there are multiple states where you can get that data, not all 50 obviously. I know California, Texas, and South Carolina show this data, but Florida doesn't.

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