RVAC
Well-known member
First customer deliveries.For what?
You need to specify if you're estimating the first one off the line, when you get yours, when production ramps to 1000/week or what.
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First customer deliveries.For what?
You need to specify if you're estimating the first one off the line, when you get yours, when production ramps to 1000/week or what.
I hope that you are wrong, I really do. We have been waiting since November 2019 and as much as I want the CT to be the best it can be I also want it while I am still able to enjoy it. I wouldn’t blame Tesla for a nine-month delay in the start of production but I don’t see him being that far off. Until a couple months ago he was sticking to late 2021.First customer deliveries.
In February he said “if we’re lucky, we’ll ship by year end”. Not exactly a statement you make when you are confident of hitting a deadline. He’s also been evasive when asked about Cybertruck time lines in the months since.Until a couple months ago he was sticking to late 2021.
It will probably be before Q3 but there are lots of things that could potentially delay it so we will see.First customer deliveries.
Also retrofitting cameras is just not going to happen, far too labor intensive.If you've been following CT developments recently, this shouldn't have been a shock. 4680's, Elon saying CT production would be "hard," no sign of 8 ton giga press... we're AT LEAST a year out.
There was zero mention of new camera hardware upgrades. The discussion revolved around updating the FSD computer hardware. This was shown to be essentially a single PCI card. Labor intensive it is not.I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it can be less than a year. James summed it up nicely:
Also retrofitting cameras is just not going to happen, far too labor intensive.
Actually, there was >0 mentions of a new camera upgrade. I know that a single sentence isn’t very much but it is greater than zero.There was zero mention of new camera hardware upgrades.
You can find this quote in the answer to the last question. See the video at 2:12:04.Answer (Elon):
Well, with hardware 4, we will have a next-generation camera.
I stand corrected about the one mention, but at another point in the qa, he says what i mentioned above about current camera technology being sufficient to achieve level 5 fsd and so he sees no reason to improve the camera technology. Maybe he's including this new camera hardware you mention in his statement about current camera technology, or maybe he misspoke in either of the two answers we are discussing.Actually, there was >0 mentions of a new camera upgrade. I know that a single sentence isn’t very much but it is greater than zero.
And the one sentence was very clear and specific.
You can find this quote in the answer to the last question. See the video at 2:12:04.
I agree that he is pretty clear that he believes FSD can be fully implemented with the current cameras and current hardware. One thread throughout was that with the current hardware he believes FSD can get to be 300 times better than human drivers. Not sure how he defines that measure but 300 times is his estimated upper limit on the current hardware abilities.I stand corrected about the one mention, but at another point in the qa, he says what i mentioned above about current camera technology being sufficient to achieve level 5 fsd and so he sees no reason to improve the camera technology. Maybe he's including this new camera hardware you mention in his statement about current camera technology, or maybe he misspoke in either of the two answers we are discussing.
Sorry i won't be going searching through the 45 minutes of qa to find the exact time of my reference.
I have a Ford reserved just in case my current truck dies before the CT is available. Prefer the CT but I need a truck for work.I'm going to buy a lightning if it gets delayed another year
another thing I’m curious about is testing. Is Tesla doing this now? There really are so many unanswered questions.I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how it can be less than a year. James summed it up nicely:
Also retrofitting cameras is just not going to happen, far too labor intensive.
This, to me, is so overlooked. Cybertruck beats F150 lightning, for example, in just about every category. This is especially true when you take into account you probably won’t pay sticker because of dealer markups. See: Ford BroncoNot even they can match the value offered by Cybertruck
It says the cameras will be produced in 2021. I wonder why Elon hasn't clarified the production timeline on Twitter yet...HW4, as Elon stated during the AI day Q&A, will ship with new cameras. This matches with the rumor of a deal with Samsung:
https://insideevs.com/news/519820/tesla-samsung-camera-deal-cybertruck/