Ogre
Well-known member
- First Name
- Dennis
- Joined
- Jul 3, 2021
- Threads
- 164
- Messages
- 10,719
- Reaction score
- 26,998
- Location
- Ogregon
- Vehicles
- Model Y
This is an updated version of the above post (I fixed it up there too because it was confusing and had math errors).
@Crissa and I have slightly different assumptions but looks like we're in the same ballpark. And... my optimistic prediction isn't that optimistic.
If deliveries start in Q4 2022, and your RN is below 150,000 you have a good chance of getting your truck sometime in 2023.
If your reservation is out more than 500,000 you can extrapolate, but don't give up hope entirely. There are cancellations, out-of-country deliveries, a lot of vagaries in the RN system, and most important, given the huge backlog, the possibility that Tesla will be exceed 75,000 trucks per quarter.
Quarters From Launch | Shipped During Quarter | Pessimistic Total Shipped | Optimistic Total Shipped |
---|---|---|---|
1 | < 10,000 | 6,000 | 10,000 |
2 | 20,000 - 30,000 | 26,000 | 40,000 |
3 | 20,000 - 30,000 | 46,000 | 70,000 |
4 | 60,000 - 75,000 | 106,000 | 145,000 |
5 | 60,000 - 75,000 | 166,000 | 220,000 |
6 | 60,000 - 75,000 | 226,000 | 295,000 |
7 | 60,000 - 75,000 | 286,000 | 370,000 |
8 | 60,000 - 75,000 | 346,000 | 445,000 |
@Crissa and I have slightly different assumptions but looks like we're in the same ballpark. And... my optimistic prediction isn't that optimistic.
If deliveries start in Q4 2022, and your RN is below 150,000 you have a good chance of getting your truck sometime in 2023.
If your reservation is out more than 500,000 you can extrapolate, but don't give up hope entirely. There are cancellations, out-of-country deliveries, a lot of vagaries in the RN system, and most important, given the huge backlog, the possibility that Tesla will be exceed 75,000 trucks per quarter.
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