Ogre

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This is an updated version of the above post (I fixed it up there too because it was confusing and had math errors).

Quarters From LaunchShipped During QuarterPessimistic Total ShippedOptimistic Total Shipped
1
< 10,000​
6,000
10,000
2
20,000 - 30,000​
26,000
40,000
3
20,000 - 30,000​
46,000
70,000
4
60,000 - 75,000​
106,000
145,000
5
60,000 - 75,000​
166,000
220,000
6
60,000 - 75,000​
226,000
295,000
7
60,000 - 75,000​
286,000
370,000
8
60,000 - 75,000​
346,000
445,000

@Crissa and I have slightly different assumptions but looks like we're in the same ballpark. And... my optimistic prediction isn't that optimistic.

If deliveries start in Q4 2022, and your RN is below 150,000 you have a good chance of getting your truck sometime in 2023.

If your reservation is out more than 500,000 you can extrapolate, but don't give up hope entirely. There are cancellations, out-of-country deliveries, a lot of vagaries in the RN system, and most important, given the huge backlog, the possibility that Tesla will be exceed 75,000 trucks per quarter.
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SONNYDUT

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My RN112754724. I thought 11274410 minus my number would give me my position in line? The reservation spreadsheet show I was in 10k placement (incorrect position?) but there is and error so I am now according to the the spreadsheet, my position is pushed to 124k position (correct position?). I order mine 5 minutes after the unveiling. How was this determined. Can anyone please explain.
 

Crissa

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My RN112754724. I thought 11274410 minus my number would give me my position in line?
Where did you get that second number?

Tesla reservation numbers are shared amongst all their products. So if you just minus the first Cybertruck reservation, you get a count of all the orders - cars, trucks, batteries, solar - that generated a reservation number.

-Crissa
 

ecotrials

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Where did you get that second number?

Tesla reservation numbers are shared amongst all their products. So if you just minus the first Cybertruck reservation, you get a count of all the orders - cars, trucks, batteries, solar - that generated a reservation number.

-Crissa
From the first page of this thread, although he dropped the last zero (should be 112744100). Using the correct number I get 10624, so pretty close to the front of the line.
As the Austin's say, "good on ya mate".
 

SONNYDUT

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Where did you get that second number?

Tesla reservation numbers are shared amongst all their products. So if you just minus the first Cybertruck reservation, you get a count of all the orders - cars, trucks, batteries, solar - that generated a reservation number.

-Crissa

Thanks Crissa,
Update: I message Tesla Rep. and he said there was a typo in my email address when I placed my order (must be too excited and made a typo) so it stay in limbo? So with that, it automatic created a new account that does not belong to anyone but in my defense, The email me the confirmation to my correct email. scratching my head. Anyway, I email him my photo ID so they (Tesla) could merge to my active account. My place in line remain the same in the 10K+ place. Good thing I contacted Tesla or I would not know until the delivering date. Mystery solved for me.
 
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Crissa

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Yeah, they should be able to fix it. That there's no configurator tools, no staff assigned to sell Cybertruck right now will make this go a little slower.

-Crissa
 

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From the first page of this thread, although he dropped the last zero (should be 112744100). Using the correct number I get 10624, so pretty close to the front of the line.
As the Austin's say, "good on ya mate".
Aussie’s ?
 

Sirfun

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I really wonder how accurate this numbering system is. I was doing math from the list and if it's accurate, Tesla is getting more orders than they can sell for a few years. And that's just on current demand. If demand goes up, they are definitely going to have to build more Giga-factories.
I extrapolated that over the past 35 days they are averaging about 5,400 orders per day. Mutiply that by 365 and I got 1,971,000 per year. :eek:

I just wonder if that list includes Solar orders as well as battery pack orders. That would change everything.
 

Crissa

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I just wonder if that list includes Solar orders as well as battery pack orders. That would change everything.
That's why the Googledoc takes those into account. Those also get reservation numbers. But it's likely getting more and more off with time.

The Austin facility is much larger than they needed, so it's just employees, tools, and parts they need to expand capacity.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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I really wonder how accurate this numbering system is. I was doing math from the list and if it's accurate, Tesla is getting more orders than they can sell for a few years. And that's just on current demand. If demand goes up, they are definitely going to have to build more Giga-factories.
I extrapolated that over the past 35 days they are averaging about 5,400 orders per day. Mutiply that by 365 and I got 1,971,000 per year. :eek:

I just wonder if that list includes Solar orders as well as battery pack orders. That would change everything.
There are just too many variables to reliably predict much of anything about timing. If you have an order # below 500,000, it might be somewhat reasonable. After that, things just get too weird.

What percentage of orders are Cybertrucks?

How many trucks per year is Tesla going to produce? I've been predicting 5k/ week but that's not necessarily an upper limit, given the demand I can see them pushing hard to get that number up to 10k/ week or roughly half a million trucks a year. But... how long does it take to get there?

How many people will cancel given the apparently huge wait? We're talking 4-5 years for some people here. Lots of options coming up in the mean time, both from Tesla and from others. Many of these orders are double, triple, or more and it's possible quite a few will end up cancelling or buying a used/ flipped Cybertruck.

Are you good at calculus?
 


Sirfun

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There are just too many variables to reliably predict much of anything about timing. If you have an order # below 500,000, it might be somewhat reasonable. After that, things just get too weird.

What percentage of orders are Cybertrucks?

How many trucks per year is Tesla going to produce? I've been predicting 5k/ week but that's not necessarily an upper limit, given the demand I can see them pushing hard to get that number up to 10k/ week or roughly half a million trucks a year. But... how long does it take to get there?

How many people will cancel given the apparently huge wait? We're talking 4-5 years for some people here. Lots of options coming up in the mean time, both from Tesla and from others. Many of these orders are double, triple, or more and it's possible quite a few will end up cancelling or buying a used/ flipped Cybertruck.

Are you good at calculus?
Calculus, what's that? :p

My little math exercise isn't about Cybertrucks. I was hoping to use those numbers to get a better understanding of Tesla and how many total orders of products they may have. As an investor, I find it interesting.;)

BTW, my CT reservation is around 38,000, I agree with you and Crissa my order SHOULD be filled around 3 quarters after production begins.
 

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I suppose, since you could have just held onto the reservation and had it fulfilled then.

Right now, Tesla doesn't know how they're going to get through the queue by 2026, if it's over a million long. If Elon estimates have no delays, maybe? But that never happens.

-Crissa
 
 




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