40,000 Production this year prediction

[SSonnentag]

And it's complex to eliminate complexities.

That doesn't mean it will remain complex!'

-Crissa

Your complex reasoning has given me a complex, as indicated by my reddening complexion.

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[CyberGus]

Yeah, however Elon previously stated the delivery event is going to be end of September so it's not going to be earlier than that.

One would presume that deliveries are preceded by production...

 

[BeastSlayer]

One would presume that deliveries are preceded by production...

Agree! And if I recall correctly, Elon said summer -- which is a little more than month from now.

 

[rudedawg78]

Yeah, however Elon previously stated the delivery event is going to be end of September so it's not going to be earlier than that.

Did Elon actually say the end of September? I thought he said the delivery event would be in 3rd Qtr and we assumed (based on the delays of everything else) that it would be the last week of 3rd Qtr, hence the end of September.

 

[FarAway]

Given that Elon said they were shooting for a production quota of 250,000 units per year and maybe even up to a half million if enough demand is there. That is over 20K CT's per month on the low end of the monthly production goal. So, the question is how long to open and get to a "mature" production line?

Even If production doesn't start until September but ramps up quickly, it could be done. I don't ever count Elon out. I am reminded of the old saying:

The Difficult We Do Immediately. The Impossible Takes a Little Longer.

 

[CyberGus]

Given that Elon said they were shooting for a production quota of 250,000 units per year and maybe even up to a half million if enough demand is there. That is over 20K CT's per month on the low end of the monthly production goal. So, the question is how long to open and get to a "mature" production line?

Even If production doesn't start until September but ramps up quickly, it could be done. I don't ever count Elon out. I am reminded of the old saying:

The Difficult We Do Immediately. The Impossible Takes a Little Longer.

 

[BeastSlayer]

I have been absent for two years and did not notice the change of atmosphere into pessimism.

Must be the barrage of disappointment in waiting -- and waiting some more that we are no longer giving in to the possibility that Elon may yet give us a pleasant surpirse.

 

[Ogre]

Step #1: Apply Elon filter to statement (+/- 30% as necessary)

Step #2: Remove Hopes & Dreams goggles (+/- 20% as necessary)

Step #3: Come to grips with reality (+/- 15% as necessary)


Probably 8-10k from August-December. With perfect execution and late July approval and employee sales... 15k at best.

I did a look at the Model 3 launch a while back. I think they only cranked out 9k from September to December (Note: they sold M3s to employees in July prior to wide release) then production exploded in Q1 the following year all the way to end of the year.

I’m largely with Dusty here.

Musk suggested in the Q&a yesterday that the ramp on the Cybertruck would be —slower— than other products due to the fact that it is so different.

Likely faster/ cheaper to produce once the line is going, but the folded steel on this scale is unheard of. Lots of other new technologies coming.

Much like the 4680 ramp. Short term it’ll be slow, long term it’ll be a huge win.

 

[BeastSlayer]

And if I'm the CFO, I'll be nagging Elon to deploy resources to producing the Cybertruck as a first priority with the sure demand rather than other models that just builds up their unsold inventories that's now they are discounting to move out. Double jeopardy of lower profit and tying up working capital for Tesla.

 

[uscbucsfan]

And if I'm the CFO, I'll be nagging Elon to deploy resources to producing the Cybertruck as a first priority with the sure demand rather than other models that just builds up their unsold inventories that's now they are discounting to move out. Double jeopardy of lower profit and tying up working capital for Tesla.

As Elon alluded to yesterday, they don't know what the demand of the CT is. They do have massive demand for the MY and that's been one of the biggest reasons (outside of figuring out how to make the CT) for the delays.

The ramp time will be slow. He's said that like 10 times now, because it will. Even with all of that, people will get upset with the slow ramp time.

Again, mass production doesn't begin until 2024.

 

[cvalue13]

One would presume that deliveries are preceded by production...

yea, in case I was sounding silly: my figures were intending to describe deliveries in Oct/Nov/Dec assuming a Sept 30 delivery party

maybe some people care about what’s literally produced in 2023 vs delivered in 2023

 

[cvalue13]

I have been absent for two years and did not notice the change of atmosphere into pessimism.

it’s just some local ‘post cyber roundup clarity’

 

[cvalue13]

Easier supposedly by eliminating a lot of complexities. The issue is more on supply chain challenges of components.

It eliminates complexities once and assuming the materials, tooling, processes, etc., are dialed in and working as theory assumed

but until it’s dialed in, they’re in the process of invention and revision

 

[BillyGee]

The fact of the matter is that until one of them rolls off the line, nobody really knows, not even ol' Musky.

As cool as it would be to get mine before the end of the year, I'm not holding my breath.

 

[RVAC]

One would presume that deliveries are preceded by production...

Obviously ... but if 4680 Model Y is anything to go by we're likely talking about few deliveries to employees to start with, they're not going to be stockpiling thousands upon thousands of Cybertrucks. That is to say volume between the time they start production and the delivery event is not going to be significant to make 40k in 2023 any more likely.

Did Elon actually say the end of September? I thought he said the delivery event would be in 3rd Qtr and we assumed (based on the delays of everything else) that it would be the last week of 3rd Qtr, hence the end of September.

It was in the Q1 2023 call, he stated end of Q3 for Cybertruck delivery event.

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