90% cancellation/postponement rate?

[AverageLogic]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

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[ituner-HF]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

I got VIN 3400 and my place in line was around 7800

 

[edh]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

FWIW - I was traveling the first week in April, and there was a Delivery Center across from my hotel near Atlanta.

I went in to see if they could find anything interesting in the CRM on my order (they couldn't). But when I was leaving the guy made a comment - "you'll probably get a VIN sooner than you expect, we're getting a lot of cancelations". Then another guy made a comment along the lines of people not qualifying for the loan price, and they both started laughing (it didn't seem that funny, but whatever). They told me 2 of the 3 CTs they had getting prepped right then were not going to the original order holder because of this.

Just one small data point, but I think you're probably right.

 

[Killlbox]

I think a LOT of people impulse dropped $100 for a place in line to get the truck. The whole world has changed since November 2019 so it's understanding there's lots of cancelations.

 

[Pops]

I dont think there is enough public information available for anyone to make an accurate estimate. I did recently see that Tesla reduced hours from 12 hours a day to 11 on the factory line. So whatever the demand is, its enough for them to be working on trucks nearly 24 hours a day.

Also Tesla made a public facing comment on an earning call that they have 1 years worth of FS orders, and that was months ago, it could have only gone up.

 

[seadsmoney]

Seemed to me back in early Feb after running some numbers FS was truly limited (as Tesla promised) and there seemed to be only one wave of invites, December, with subsequent batches of invites simply backfilling attrition from the initial wave. The total FS run I guessed at ~15k FS CTs was based on ~7% participation rate in this forum. The VINs had been neatly matching up to that estimate, but now it seems there are some dead VINs and far less total, and meanwhile FS invites also actually stabilized and even ramped up slightly towards end of Feb. Interesting

 

[Killlbox]

FWIW, I got the FS invite on 3/1 and configured my beast on 3/9 (wanted to get to Denver to see one in person before spending the $1,000).

 

[carsly]

I'd expect reservation to order conversion rates to drop the deeper Tesla gets into the list as the most ardent fans ordered in the first few minutes, hours and days. Weeks to months later? Eh, sure I'll drop in a reservation.

I placed a Dec 2019 reservation for a $50K dual motor thinking that was the best value in the unveil lineup. Now? That same dual-motor Cybertruck is literally twice the price, wow.

With sticky high interest rates (that may go even higher before they start dropping) and prices that are much, much, higher I'm not at all surprised at the conversion rates. Also the deeper we get into the production ramp the closer we get to the end of the Foundation Series so for those of us who question the $20K upcharge and don't mind waiting another few months after 4.5 years it's perfectly expected to have growing pass rates on Foundation Series.

In the nearly five years that will pass for many of us who placed reservations, there are a large number of other EV's which have been launched which are increasingly compelling, especially once NACS ports proliferate in Model Year 2025. We also know Tesla, and prices will fall in the future. So that $80K dual motor, once it's available, probably drops to $70K by late 2025 and even $60K in 2026.

Me? I picked up a used Model S Plaid from the Tesla Used store almost exactly a year ago. It's worth ~$50-60K today. Is the Foundation Series dual motor twice the vehicle of my Plaid? I'm not so sure. Might as well wait until the first price cut, which we know to be $80K, and which we also know will hit later this year.

 

[scohen2002]

I know it’s far from exact but here’s my assumption about why it’s about a 10% conversion rate on the reservations.

my 11279 rn was about 42,000 in line. I took home vin number 55xx. So 5500 is 13% of 42000 but there are gaps in vins so….

Again, I know many reasons why you can’t do this exact math formula and expect it to be accurate, but from 30,000 feet up in the air. It makes sense to me to approximate that way.

 

[nevetsyad]

The first Cybertruck in Virginia was just delivered today. I'm pretty sure there's states that haven't been invited to configure yet? Not sure any of these numbers are useful if the first person to reserve is potentially still waiting to configure their foundation series in a state that doesn't have that option yet.

Think of how many more could be like that? We'll never know.

 

[EmJay]

I’ve written this before in another thread but I reserved at the exact same time as my brother and a few friends at work. Our RNs are all 1129xxxx. When I received my invite they became excited and anxiously watched for theirs. 43 days later none of them have been invited to order. Not sure why.

So I would submit that not everyone is invited to order one. I don’t know why you would or would not be selected. This is just my experience and unless anyone else had a similar situation…I wouldn’t know how else to explain it.

 

[The Tesla Guy]

My guess is they haven’t been going straight down the reservation list sequentially.
Deliveries closer to Texas first…

 

[CYBEAST]

My vin received this week on a beast is low 8,000 range

 

[CYBEAST]

My maths:
Per recall notice, -3,900 delivered
Plus ~1,100 at factory lot
Assumption: 5,000 trucks created to date.

My no. Is 11307xxxx.
Assumption: My research has suggested that I am at about 248,000 in line.
Chart in this forum from last month suggests I’ll get invite around last week in April (chart made prior to recall).

Assumption: Twice as many trucks ordered than VINs created, namely 10K trucks formally ordered.

My number is on the near horizon, so let’s say 10,000 ordered/200,000 order invites
…that’s 5%!

Say my maths is off by factor of two, thus…
Cancellation/postponement rate of 90%

Does this check out?
What is known/do we have any other intel?

Bonus Q: Will EM & co reveal cancellation rate at Apr 23rd mtg?

Here is my math- My vin assigned this week is in the low 8,000 range. If I take my order number 11275xxxx minus the first CT vin 112744100, it's a 12,000 difference. I think I figured 38% off of the 12,000 reservation numbers ahead of me. So if 30% of all orders are beasts, how many are cancelling? Im not good with math lol

 

[CYBEAST]

My guess is they haven’t been going straight down the reservation list sequentially.
Deliveries closer to Texas first…

Seems like I’ve seen a lot of Florida Vins assigned just this week. Cali has def the most, then Texas, now Florida.

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