Any idea on current production rates?

[anionic1]

Are we in the tens still per day? Anywhere near the hundreds?

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[tmeyer3]

best place to go for this is probably Joe Tegtmeyer on Youtube. He does drone flyovers every other day. Recently showing off 30+ outbound.

https://www.youtube.com/@JoeTegtmeyer

Post from yesterday:
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/24-cybertrucks-matte-black-completed-sitting-at-giga-texas-?-12-13-23.10544/

There are more now.

 

[Mini2nut]

I'm confident the trucks are still being hand built.

It will take months before we start seeing multiple transporters being loaded up with Cybertrucks and taken to different parts of the country.

Your name might come up sooner than expected due to higher than anticipated pricing.

The take rate is expected to be around 20% according to the experts. In other words, 80% of reservation holders are not expected to follow through with their reservation.

 

[tmeyer3]

I'm confident the trucks are still being hand built.

It will take months before we start seeing multiple transporters being loaded up with Cybertrucks and taken to different parts of the country.

After seeing the factory and the process, there's no WAY they're being hand built. But to your point, there is still a ton of human intervention going on, yeah. Unless that's what you meant by hand built, in which case ignore me lol.

OP: I wouldn't get too excited about 1000s of trucks being out on the road just yet.

 

[Mini2nut]

Yes, that's what I meant. The automated processes are still very slow from what I have read.

 

[scottf200]

Are we in the tens still per day? Anywhere near the hundreds?

best place to go for this is probably Joe Tegtmeyer on Youtube. He does drone flyovers every other day. Recently showing off 30+ outbound.
https://www.youtube.com/@JoeTegtmeyer
Post from yesterday:
...
There are more now.

I think VIN tracking eventually will give a smoothed out number.

Example from TM3 mentioned in my post here:
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...read-updated-11-19-23.8989/page-5#post-211370

Some great efforts getting it rolling in that thread as well. See: newwave1331 comments
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...read-updated-11-19-23.8989/page-6#post-212250

 

[Cyberman]

Are we in the tens still per day? Anywhere near the hundreds?

I heard 60 trucks an hour, as of 12-06 23

 

[anionic1]

I heard 60 trucks an hour, as of 12-06 23

I think that was a number Munro put out for potential rates in the future. I can’t imagine they could be anywhere near 60 per hour. They would have all the foundation series built in a couple days. My guess would be 50-100 a day right now as they continue to tweak the production and speed it up.

 

[cvalue13]

I heard 60 trucks an hour, as of 12-06 23

not remotely true

Munro reported, in typically confusing fashion, that he saw machines with run rates of 60 jobs/hr. Not that they’re doing that. And not that jobs equals “truck”

Are we in the tens still per day? Anywhere near the hundreds?

Not remotely.

VIN registrations with the government outpace actual build and completes.

To date, Tesla has registered ~200 VIN total, including the delivery units already built/delivered.

So based on vin registrations, including the delivery event units, they’ve built less than 200 total

and FYI, of the VINs registered to date, they’ve been 90% AWD builds

best place to go for this is probably Joe Tegtmeyer on Youtube. He does drone flyovers every other day. Recently showing off 30+ outbound.

for reasons stated above, Joe’s flyovers are good for *maybe* knowing when some number are prepping for shipping, but the flyovers give zero info on how many have been built. Joe says/assumes that the number of outbound trucks has some correlation to production rate, but he’s just been wrong in this forever.

GFTX can store hundreds of trucks.

what we see outside may have been built a month ago, and be an entire month’s worth of builds. Or they could have been built over the last week, and only be 10% of what was built that week (the rest stored inside).

In other words, outbound lot tells us something about what is outbound, not about how many are being produced, or over what period of time

VIN registrations is the only, best, and still a rough insight into Tesla’s production rates (until Tesla quarterly reports)

 

[WormtownKris]

for reasons stated above, Joe’s flyovers are good for *maybe* knowing when some number are prepping for shipping, but the flyovers give zero info on how many have been built. Joe says/assumes that the number of outbound trucks has some correlation to production rate, but he’s just been wrong in this forever.

GFTX can store hundreds of trucks.

what we see outside may have been built a month ago, and be an entire month’s worth of builds. Or they could have been built over the last week, and only be 10% of what was built that week (the rest stored inside).

In other words, outbound lot tells us something about what is outbound, not about how many are being produced, or over what period of time

VIN registrations is the only, best, and still a rough insight into Tesla’s production rates (until Tesla quarterly reports)
[/QUOTE]
The biggest (and quite obvious) inaccuracy from the drone flight lot observations is the concept that what Joe or Jeff or Brad shows in their flight is an absolute number for the day. We see, "Tesla shipped 6 CyberTrucks today!" thrown about by posters and media.
Besides the points made above, these drone flights are capturing about 3 minutes of a 24-hour period. So, there were, say, 4 CTs out there at 9:15 am. Maybe at 11:15 they brought out 75 more. We would `never know. Likewise, sometimes the same trucks sit there for a few days in a row.
So, stringing together daily drone CT numbers can potentially show us a trend, as volumes consistently increase. But they do little to give us any absolute production numbers.

 

[cvalue13]

So, stringing together daily drone CT numbers can potentially show us a trend, as volumes consistently increase. But they do little to give us any absolute production numbers.

spot on

To be fair to Joe, while he’s certainly done a share of suggesting his outbound lot sightings have some meaningful correlation to production, a whole lot of that idea has been amplified by others in the $TSLA hopium

“12 trucks in outbound lot today! They’re up to building 12 trucks a day!”

why not 12 and hour?! Why not 12 a minute!?

 

[greggertruck]

spot on

To be fair to Joe, while he’s certainly done a share of suggesting his outbound lot sightings have some meaningful correlation to production, a whole lot of that idea has been amplified by others in the $TSLA hopium

“12 trucks in outbound lot today! They’re up to building 12 trucks a day!”

why not 12 and hour?! Why not 12 a minute!?

I suppose to could be roped into this too.

I monitored outbound lot very closely for the beta build/RC series since we couldn’t catch the VIN reg’s yet.

I’d say they’re probably pumping close to 10 a day at this moment. But the dam will probably break soon.

 

[cvalue13]

I’d say they’re probably pumping close to 10 a day at this moment.

I think it totally reasonable to think they’re averaging 10/day over some period (eg over a week)

But one question is how much human intervention is still going on, to arrive at that rate, which itself is a limiting factor.

and in addition, what the long-lead items are for completing and fully commissioning the line speed such that there’s not a material bottleneck at some point in supply chain or the line. Eg, there’s obviously still a material bottleneck in Cyberbeast builds.

Then there are learnings or identified failures or out-of-spec events along the process.

considering all these and likely other variables, at this stage, the daily production is likely somewhat fluid. They may eg do 30 on a Monday, and 5 the next day, etc. And the daily or average we see isn’t a smooth line increase.

Helpful to look at the Model 3 S-curve, and remember that unlike the M3 the CyberTruck is an entirely new type of line, entirely new parts and processes, and new vehicle.

so, the M3 s-curve could be reasonably seen as an optimistic estimate of how the CT works (eg for every historical learning they’ve had that helps the S-curve, there’s a CT-specific learning that is being dealt with, averaging out to similar).

these are weekly rates

 

[VR Driving]

at full capacity, we should start seeing a new Cybertrucks roll out of the factory every 1-1:30 min. judging from the outbound lots, the production ramp is going slowly with about 20-30 trucks daily.

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