Cybertruck Deliveries Will 'Far Exceed' Wall Street Estimates (says Gary Black, founder of Future Fund)

[Crissa]

ok i have to retract my previous thoughts on people with pre-orders... the pre orders that used a configurater.. have an agreement to be able to order that design at that price...
from the order agreement..

Your Vehicle is priced and configured based on features and op'ons available at the 'me of order and you can confirm
availability with a Tesla representa've. Op'ons, features or hardware released a5er you place your order may not be included in or available for your
Vehicle.

Soooo it APPEARS that if you ordered it.. you can get what you ordered <eventually> for the agreed on price.

Even when you've configured an order, there is still time to change that configuration.

And Tesla has never changed the prices even on people who just have reservations.

-Crissa

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[FarAway]

This is a refreshingly positive article for a change.
Let's all hope so! We can get our CT's earlier and watch the stock go up, too!

Tesla To Shoot Past 2025 EPS Consensus As Cybertruck Deliveries Will 'Far Exceed' Wall Street Estimates, Says Analyst

 

[cvalue13]

The analyst is Gary Black

 

[Regenshire]

They won't raise prices in the first year/launch edition. They will, however, start increasing prices in the next production year if Tesla realizes that demand far exceeds supply.

Tesla literally did that in 2020 a mere months after they launched the Model Y: it was $69K CAD for LR AWD version and increased it to $75K CAD. They'd later drop the price back down to $69K in 2021 and then slowly increased the prices until it hit $85K by summer of 2022. They have since dropped the price back down to $69K CAD in 2023 for the same LR AWD.

For those that have kept Tesla's prices, we understand that the initial prices will be very close to what Tesla had initially stated. But I'm of the opinion that Tesla will raise prices if (and only if) demand > supply.

Was that a Canada specific price increase in 2020? I am unaware of a price increase in the US during that year (2020) for the Model Y. The only price adjustment in 2020 I am aware of for the Model Y was a decrease in price. Pricing is likely different in various countries though.

Tesla did make a lot of price increases in 2021 when the pandemic really started having a material impact on them sourcing materials and chips. We see a steady increase in cost starting in 2021 through 2022. There is a lot of evidence that was less to do with increasing cost due to demand then it had to due with a large increase in the costs of materials, chips, and other supplies to build all of the vehicles during that period of time.

Here is my understanding of the Model Y price changes in the US.

	Dual Motor LR AWD	Performance	SR AWD
Announcement	$ 51,000	$ 60,000
1st Deliveries - March 2020	$ 51,000	$ 60,000
July 2020	$ 49,990	$ 59,990
Feb 2021	$ 48,990	$ 60,990
Apr 2021	$ 50,490	$ 60,990
May 2021	$ 51,990	$ 60,990
June 2021	$ 52,990	$ 60,990
July 2021	$ 53,990	$ 60,990
Oct 2021	$ 56,990	$ 61,990
Nov 2021	$ 58,990	$ 63,990
Mar 2022	$ 62,990	$ 67,990
June 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 59,990 OTM
Aug 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 61,990 OTM
Dec 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 61,990 OTM
Jan 2023	$ 53,490	$ 56,990	$ 50,990 OTM
Feb 2023	$ 54,990	$ 58,990	$ 51,990 OTM
Apr 2023	$ 49,990	$ 53,990	$ 46,990
May 2023	$ 50,490	$ 54,490	$ 47,490

Tesla has shown they will adjust pricing based on the cost of materials and to increase demand. I believe that Tesla considers the number of vehicles delivered to be their most important metric quarter to quarter, so they will always prioritize selling the largest number of vehicles possible over selling less at a higher price.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

Was that a Canada specific price increase in 2020? I am unaware of a price increase in the US during that year (2020) for the Model Y. The only price adjustment in 2020 I am aware of for the Model Y was a decrease in price. Pricing is likely different in various countries though.

Tesla did make a lot of price increases in 2021 when the pandemic really started having a material impact on them sourcing materials and chips. We see a steady increase in cost starting in 2021 through 2022. There is a lot of evidence that was less to do with increasing cost due to demand then it had to due with a large increase in the costs of materials, chips, and other supplies to build all of the vehicles during that period of time.

Here is my understanding of the Model Y price changes in the US.

	Dual Motor LR AWD	Performance	SR AWD
Announcement	$ 51,000	$ 60,000
1st Deliveries - March 2020	$ 51,000	$ 60,000
July 2020	$ 49,990	$ 59,990
Feb 2021	$ 48,990	$ 60,990
Apr 2021	$ 50,490	$ 60,990
May 2021	$ 51,990	$ 60,990
June 2021	$ 52,990	$ 60,990
July 2021	$ 53,990	$ 60,990
Oct 2021	$ 56,990	$ 61,990
Nov 2021	$ 58,990	$ 63,990
Mar 2022	$ 62,990	$ 67,990
June 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 59,990 OTM
Aug 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 61,990 OTM
Dec 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 61,990 OTM
Jan 2023	$ 53,490	$ 56,990	$ 50,990 OTM
Feb 2023	$ 54,990	$ 58,990	$ 51,990 OTM
Apr 2023	$ 49,990	$ 53,990	$ 46,990
May 2023	$ 50,490	$ 54,490	$ 47,490

Tesla has shown they will adjust pricing based on the cost of materials and to increase demand. I believe that Tesla considers the number of vehicles delivered to be their most important metric quarter to quarter, so they will always prioritize selling the largest number of vehicles possible over selling less at a higher price.

WOW
About $15K 'lever' on highest of dual motor Model Y. Could be a good thing for CYBRTRK reservation holders skated for 2024/5 if Tesla can do do do, da da da! ( Is all l want to say to you) (Police)

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

I feel the next focus of Tesla hardware would be the lower-cost model, which will be built everywhere. CT is more like the second cousin you invite to your wedding and played Viva La Vida. You remember 'ohohohoh' but nothing else when staring at the family album. At least, One of us in this thread is closer to the truth for sure. Please swarm the Q&A session with pricing/Spec questions next week.

 

[Arctic_White]

Was that a Canada specific price increase in 2020? I am unaware of a price increase in the US during that year (2020) for the Model Y. The only price adjustment in 2020 I am aware of for the Model Y was a decrease in price. Pricing is likely different in various countries though.

Tesla did make a lot of price increases in 2021 when the pandemic really started having a material impact on them sourcing materials and chips. We see a steady increase in cost starting in 2021 through 2022. There is a lot of evidence that was less to do with increasing cost due to demand then it had to due with a large increase in the costs of materials, chips, and other supplies to build all of the vehicles during that period of time.

Here is my understanding of the Model Y price changes in the US.

	Dual Motor LR AWD	Performance	SR AWD
Announcement	$ 51,000	$ 60,000
1st Deliveries - March 2020	$ 51,000	$ 60,000
July 2020	$ 49,990	$ 59,990
Feb 2021	$ 48,990	$ 60,990
Apr 2021	$ 50,490	$ 60,990
May 2021	$ 51,990	$ 60,990
June 2021	$ 52,990	$ 60,990
July 2021	$ 53,990	$ 60,990
Oct 2021	$ 56,990	$ 61,990
Nov 2021	$ 58,990	$ 63,990
Mar 2022	$ 62,990	$ 67,990
June 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 59,990 OTM
Aug 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 61,990 OTM
Dec 2022	$ 65,990	$ 69,990	$ 61,990 OTM
Jan 2023	$ 53,490	$ 56,990	$ 50,990 OTM
Feb 2023	$ 54,990	$ 58,990	$ 51,990 OTM
Apr 2023	$ 49,990	$ 53,990	$ 46,990
May 2023	$ 50,490	$ 54,490	$ 47,490

Tesla has shown they will adjust pricing based on the cost of materials and to increase demand. I believe that Tesla considers the number of vehicles delivered to be their most important metric quarter to quarter, so they will always prioritize selling the largest number of vehicles possible over selling less at a higher price.

It must have been specific to the Canadian market, which isn't surprising. Tesla is known to adjust prices based on demand.

I know this took place because I almost purchased a Y LR AWD but with the price increase, we ended up with a Model 3 instead back in June of 2020.

 

[charliemagpie]

Once prices are released,

And actual production volume debunks the theory that suppliers planning for 375k are keeping 50% as inventory.

What's left to do ?

 

[HaulingAss]

I know this took place because I almost purchased a Y LR AWD but with the price increase, we ended up with a Model 3 instead back in June of 2020.

Did you have a pre-production reservation or would it have been a new order? Because Tesla will definitely raise the prices for new orders to try to keep wait times from becoming ridiculous.

 

[Arctic_White]

Did you have a pre-production reservation or would it have been a new order? Because Tesla will definitely raise the prices for new orders to try to keep wait times from becoming ridiculous.

It would have been a new order.

So to recap: if you order then your price is locked in. Early reservation holders would have locked in their prices.

 

[HaulingAss]

It would have been a new order.

So to recap: if you order then your price is locked in. Early reservation holders would have locked in their prices.

To be clear, even though Tesla has a good history of honoring reservation prices, there is no legal obligation for them to do that, that I know of.

 

[Crissa]

To be clear, even though Tesla has a good history of honoring reservation prices, there is no legal obligation for them to do that, that I know of.

There's a legal obligation, but I don't know what the exact standard is. They can't completely disregard the pricing, because that would be fraud. California specifically has laws against advertising at a price and not doing your best to carry through.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

There's a legal obligation, but I don't know what the exact standard is. They can't completely disregard the pricing, because that would be fraud. California specifically has laws against advertising at a price and not doing your best to carry through.

-Crissa

Please, you cannot on one hand admit you don't know what the legal standard is in this exact situation, and yet, claim that it creates a legal obligation for Tesla to maintain the same price they announced at the reveal.

The pre-order agreement that governs all of our pre-orders addresses this very question. It allows Tesla to change pricing. And, if you review my comment, you will see it only addressed a very narrow issue, specifically, is Tesla legally obligated to sell the Cybertruck for the prices they announced during the reveal? My answer is there is no obligation to maintain the announced pricing.

 

[cvalue13]

My answer is there is no obligation to maintain the announced pricing.

confirmed

 

[rudedawg78]

This is a refreshingly positive article for a change.
Let's all hope so! We can get our CT's earlier and watch the stock go up, too!

Tesla To Shoot Past 2025 EPS Consensus As Cybertruck Deliveries Will 'Far Exceed' Wall Street Estimates, Says Analyst

Yeah, Gary, must be all that 'advertising' that Tesla is doing!

Ugh.

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