Cybertruck launch delayed again - Per AutoForecast Solutions - until Oct 2023

[Ogre]

2023 is out of the question for 98% of Tesla pre-order holders.
Elon said at one point that they hope to make up to 250,000 CyberTrucks per year. Up to. Max. (That was assuming they would have batteries for them).

If you are #300,000, and they start ramping the CyberTruck in fall of 2023, that means it will be well into 2025 before you get your CyberTruck. Sunday is May 1st. Originally they were going to be cranking out Model Ys from GigaTexas by the end of 2021. They are making some now, but they are still ramping, a little delayed. The same will happen with the CyberTruck.

Musk actually said their goal was 250,000 or more.

He also said they would be up to “Volume Production” in 2023 which means a fall 2023 launch is unlikely because it usually takes them 9-12 months to get to volume production. This is based on the most recent earnings call.

Maybe 100k trucks by end of 2023? Likely at least 50k. If you are #300k likely mid to late 2024.


But even if your 2025 number is right, leasing is still a crap shot. Get the Cybertruck in Jan 2025? You are paying 4 months lease on a car you aren’t using. Cybertruck in September 2025? You are careless for 5 months. If my estimate is right you are paying for a lease on an unused car for most of a year.

Leasing is just a bad way to fill a vehicle gap. Buy a used Bolt and sell it when you are done.

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[Cybr on]

Musk actually said their goal was 250,000 or more.

He also said they would be up to “Volume Production” in 2023 which means a fall 2023 launch is unlikely because it usually takes them 9-12 months to get to volume production. This is based on the most recent earnings call.

Maybe 100k trucks by end of 2023? Likely at least 50k. If you are #300k likely mid to late 2024.


But even if your 2025 number is right, leasing is still a crap shot. Get the Cybertruck in Jan 2025? You are paying 4 months lease on a car you aren’t using. Cybertruck in September 2025? You are careless for 5 months. If my estimate is right you are paying for a lease on an unused car for most of a year.

Leasing is just a bad way to fill a vehicle gap. Buy a used Bolt and sell it when you are done.

We ordered a CT3 +FSD on Nov. 26th 2019 , but it went through officially the following day Nov. 27th 2019 1:54pm pst.
Now I’m curious to know where I would “ possibly” be.

 

[Technolust]

I don't know if this is a comparison but if Ford can bring the F150 to market faster than Tesla can bring the Cyber Truck.... Not that I would buy the F150 but... What's the hold up and why have a pre-order to wait 5 years? Just seems like typical marketing BS! Check out this awesome new product you won't see for over 5 years. How about show us your PR events when you can actually produce something! So typical of car company's to show off an amazing car at a car show to then never see that design or have to wait half a decade to get it!

 

[Ogre]

We ordered a CT3 +FSD on Nov. 26th 2019 , but it went through officially the following day Nov. 27th 2019 1:54pm pst.
Now I’m curious to know where I would “ possibly” be.

Likely 6-9 months after start of production?

Prior launches suggest there will be around 100k trucks made in the first year. Most of them in the second half of the first year as the ramp up accelerates.

I think there were about 100k orders in the first 24 hours. So if you ordered within the first day you should see it in the first year or so. Late 2023? Depends on when production actually starts.

After the first year should be around 5,000 per week or so.

 

[Crissa]

Tesla will make a lot of Model Ys at GigaTexas....after they ramp. May 1st is this weekend....so a big chunk of 2022 is over. They should get to full speed, cranking out Model Ys by 1st quarter of 2023. As far as 4680s, they don't have enough at the moment. Period. They are working on it though. We don't know how many cells per CyberTruck of 4680s is needed, but they sure will be challenged. MY GUESS is Cybertruck full ramp will be in the fall of 2023.

May is the fifth month. Only a third of the year is gone. And it doesn't matter the number of 4680 cells they have if they don't have enough cars to put them in.

-Crissa

 

[Mini2nut]

Again, a lot of pieces to the Cybertruck production puzzle.

I see production pilot production starting in the summer of 2023 and regular production starting in the fall. Ramping up is going to take time. I think we will be lucky to see 10k trucks leave Austin next year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Elon said volume production in 2023, not start of production in 2023. Typically he has meant around 150,000 as volume production, and it would take 3 quarters to reach it, maybe 4, so they would need to be making practice runs by this time next yesr to hit that target. To me this means that Elon is full of #$&* or lying, or the source that says production to begin in fallof 2023 is full of #$&*. I choose to believe that Elon saying they will be in volume production by the end of the year to be correct. HowmanyIhaven't any idea, but 100,000-150,000 would certainly fall into that range but also still be way off from full production capacity of 250,000 per year.

 

[Crissa]

When Elon says a production number, unless it's deliveri, it's the run rate, or how much of the factory capacity is being used.

So 150k in 2023 may mean a run rate of 150k: at some point in the year they make nearly 3k in a week.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

I am happy to get mine towards the end of 2024.

Seeing my share price over $2000 and ready for retirement, the CT is my trigger to ride off into the sunset.

How appropriate it comes from Texas.

 

[rr6013]

I am happy to get mine towards the end of 2024.

Seeing my share price over $2000 and ready for retirement, the CT is my trigger to ride off into the sunset.

How appropriate it comes from Texas.

No better demonstration precisely why rear wheel steering(RWS) is a Cybertruck necessity. It would need a four lane intersection in Tx just to turn around. Didn’t see anything but two-lane undivided last trip through Texas.

 

[Mini2nut]

150,000 trucks next year? That’s very optimistic based a Tesla’s history. Experts predict the computer chip shortage to last well into 2024. The truck is expected to be full of new technology which takes computers and chips.

The big question is 4680 battery cells. Battery cells will need to be popping off the assembly line like Tootsie Rolls in 2023 to support Cybertruck production.

We can all speculate but I do know one fact. 2023 is going to be an exciting year for reservation holders.

 

[Tinker71]

150,000 trucks next year? That’s very optimistic based a Tesla’s history. Experts predict the computer chip shortage to last well into 2024. The truck is expected to be full of new technology which takes computers and chips.

The big question is 4680 battery cells. Battery cells will need to be popping off the assembly line like Tootsie Rolls in 2023 to support Cybertruck production.

We can all speculate but I do know one fact. 2023 is going to be an exciting year for reservation holders.

Since the primary chips related to H4 is new, I don't think it will be a limiting factor. I think it is the more generic chips that are the issue. The runs were cut short or delayed during the pandemic.

I suspect Tesla has less exposure to the simpler generic chips.

 

[Ogre]

No better demonstration precisely why rear wheel steering(RWS) is a Cybertruck necessity. It would need a four lane intersection in Tx just to turn around. Didn’t see anything but two-lane undivided last trip through Texas.

Only if you care about staying on the pavement.

 

[jerhenderson]

I don't know if this is a comparison but if Ford can bring the F150 to market faster than Tesla can bring the Cyber Truck.... Not that I would buy the F150 but... What's the hold up and why have a pre-order to wait 5 years? Just seems like typical marketing BS! Check out this awesome new product you won't see for over 5 years. How about show us your PR events when you can actually produce something! So typical of car company's to show off an amazing car at a car show to then never see that design or have to wait half a decade to get it!

because the CT is far more complicated than Ford putting a F150 body over a battery.

tesla had to build the factory, develop the 4680 to volume production, order the gigapress and wait for the steel factory.

basic CT research would tell you this.

 

[charliemagpie]

For those already waiting 3 years, any more delay extends the pain.

But the long line of discontent will be reigned in.

In a few more sleeps , details will emerge. Next year, Youtube video reviews will appear.
By 2024 we could be on the way to half a million a year, counting the cancellations, we would probably catch up with the long backlog, and perhaps have a tail going back a year. Far more palatable.

It will come to pass quickly.

June 2022.... What's that equipment being delivered, Joe ?

Sept 2022... More juicy detail is released.

Nov 2022 ... CT day. Disclosure... 2 or 3 or 4 motor .. Prices.

Dec 22 - Feb 2023.... Letter from Tesla.... Your car is due for delivery XXXX,

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