Tinker71

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Rumor: Tesla Is Gearing Up for Earlier than Expected Cybertruck Production

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...r-earlier-than-expected-cybertruck-production

This is good news for some real deliveries in Q4 with most the bugs worked out. Tesla nailed the Y ramp and will do the same on the CT. They have the experience now. They will use their A team to ramp up Y production in both Berlin and Austin, then roll into the CT this fall.

I think another key to volume production "where Tesla is making their margin" is the stainless steel supplier in Texas. Anybody have an update on that plant. I thought it was in Houston?





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CyberOwl

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I wonder what Tesla will use in Fremont in lieu of the 8-ton gigapress the CT would supposedly require. Perhaps some different subassembly design that can be made with a smaller machine, e.g. in more pieces?
Is there any reason why Fremont can't have an 8-ton press? Maybe the first one will go there.
 

braddibbnd

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I'm still in the "This isn't going to ramp up to 200k yearly production soon". Tesla also wants to build the Semi and hasn't done so because it doesn't have the batteries. Yes, Texas will build 4680s, but it still needs the materials for the ramp up of MY in Texas and the Semi and the CT. There are Semi orders that are much older than CT orders. They may have the people and equipment on hand at Texas to begin CT production in Q3, but don't see any large quantities coming off the line until Q1 or maybe Q2 in 2022. Would love to see my DM in 2022, but it really would take more than a little luck o' the Irish I think to happen.
 

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Rumor: Tesla Is Gearing Up for Earlier than Expected Cybertruck Production

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...r-earlier-than-expected-cybertruck-production

March 29, 2021

In an effort to bring Cybertruck to market as soon as possible, Tesla is preparing the pilot production line and planning details for its production at the Fremont factory. Once all the equipment is installed at Giga Texas, a trained, ready-for-work team will immediately begin production from June 2021.

It seems Tesla is in a hurry to please its customers with the fastest possible market launch of the cult Cybertruck. Tesla's electric pickup truck has garnered a lot of attention, and its pre-orders have long since surpassed 700,000 (according to unofficial figures). This would surely stimulate the company to start producing it as soon as Giga Texas is built.

According to information leaked from Tesla, the company is currently focused on building the pilot production line at the Fremont factory. In addition, the company is planning all the details of how the line will operate, which will save several months of time before production starts at Giga Texas. The point is that the team must learn how to properly operate the equipment and acquire the necessary knowledge about the production process. Typically, such training can take from several weeks to months, however Tesla will do it even before the production equipment is installed at Giga Texas.

In addition, the team currently undergoing training was asked to arrive in Texas in June to begin work. This means that at least a trial production of Cybertruck can begin as early as June 2021, which means that the first deliveries could occur in Q3 of this year. Even if mass production only begins in Q4, it still means that the company will manage to deliver several batches of Cybertruck, which could have a significant impact on the financial results for 2021.

This information has been confirmed by several members from the Tesla Cybertruck production team.
Cybertruck is no cult. Jamestown was a cult. Its a pickup fundamentally. It is new by design. If anything is a cult it is the traditional conventional F-150 FORD pickup style.
 

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I'm still in the "This isn't going to ramp up to 200k yearly production soon". Tesla also wants to build the Semi and hasn't done so because it doesn't have the batteries. Yes, Texas will build 4680s, but it still needs the materials for the ramp up of MY in Texas and the Semi and the CT. There are Semi orders that are much older than CT orders. They may have the people and equipment on hand at Texas to begin CT production in Q3, but don't see any large quantities coming off the line until Q1 or maybe Q2 in 2022. Would love to see my DM in 2022, but it really would take more than a little luck o' the Irish I think to happen.
I agree with most of what you are saying here.

So the plan on battery day was to have 100 Gwh of battery production capacity in '22. Let's just play with the idea that they need to fulfill 20k semi orders next year (500kwh battery packs). That's only 10 Gwh of batteries, which leaves 90 Gwh of batteries to go into CT / whatever. I realize they won't make 100 Gwh of batteries in '22. The production rate might be there at the end of the year, but they will probably actually output 40 - 60 Gwh in '22.

Take it a step further and speculate that their existing models will continue to use traditional 2170 / 1865 cells from existing 3rd party suppliers. They could possibly use the remaining 90Gwh to make an astonishing 450k CT3s (200kwh pack assumption).

Do I think this is even remotely likely? No.

But does 150k - 200k CTs in '22 seem possible? I guess.

I think 100k+ CTs off the line in '22 sounds plausible. Assuming production ramps similar to the MY which was roughly 90k in Q2-Q4 (https://hypercharts.co/tsla?frequency=annual). So if they make 100k CT3s in 22 that's 20 Gwh of batteries in addition to the 10 Gwh for the semi for a 30 Gwh total.

If they can get CT production rolling in Q3 of this year that would make me feel as if over 100k is easily achievable in '22. With that said, I don't think I'll see my CT2 until '23 or '24. Could definitely see a MY situation for CT that the highest trim levels are prioritized and the base / mid level trims are delayed. Could be a long time before CT1 orders are fulfilled.
 

TheLastStarfighter

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They don't need to use a press to build test cars. Just like some of their other models use a press in one location, and not in another. The design is the same, just one has more welds. Expect Freemont to build the test trucks for crashing, etc. We will probably see them, too. Then production will happen in Texas.
 

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They don't need to use a press to build test cars. Just like some of their other models use a press in one location, and not in another. The design is the same, just one has more welds. Expect Freemont to build the test trucks for crashing, etc. We will probably see them, too. Then production will happen in Texas.

This^^ -- I think there is confusion that Fremont is being somehow used to speed up delivery of the CT, when realistically it's an effort to familiarize personnel with the building process, and maybe iron out some real world kinks in the system before *actual* production begins in Texas.

Will this speed up production? In an indirect sense, yes, assuming it allows a more seamless ramp up for the true CT Texas production due to everyone being on the same page and ready to roll em out.

Someone here mentioned using the same parts over and over, constructing/deconstructing a CT on the line, rinse/wash/repeat, which makes perfect sense. Get the "muscle memory" part taken care of essentially
 

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Good question...
One theory I have is maybe they get the gigapress (gigapresses?) up and running in Texas first. Pump out a few castings and ship them to the pilot factory in Freemont. While this is happening they get the rest of the CT lineup up and running in Texas. Just a thought.
I wonder if they might be able use the smaller presses to make the ultimate single piece cast in a couple pieces and join them together. My understanding is the big press may be several months away. This would allow them to test out the rest of the line and subassemblies.
 

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I wonder if they might be able use the smaller presses to make the ultimate single piece cast in a couple pieces and join them together. My understanding is the big press may be several months away. This would allow them to test out the rest of the line and subassemblies.
Willing to bet they are going to do something like that.. I dont see why they would have them deliver this fancy expensive massive new machine to Fremont just for a few pre production test vehicles.
 

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I wonder if they might be able use the smaller presses to make the ultimate single piece cast in a couple pieces and join them together. My understanding is the big press may be several months away. This would allow them to test out the rest of the line and subassemblies.
Or maybe they could use a big CNC mill to shape an aluminum block into a substitute for the casting.

It's not exactly the same as the casting, and it takes a lot longer -- but it might be similar enough that they can test out the other steps in the production process and ensure a mostly-trouble-free start to mass production.
 
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Crissa

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Willing to bet they are going to do something like that.. I dont see why they would have them deliver this fancy expensive massive new machine to Fremont just for a few pre production test vehicles.
If they were going to test more designs, maybe.

-Crissa
 

OCS12

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This is actually completely normal for any major manufacturer and doesn’t really imply anything is ahead of schedule. Designing assembly lines is a big part of what I do for a living. New assembly lines are frequently built and tested off site due to either space or time constraints. This lets a lot of the debugging of both machines and build process occur ahead of time. Then the whole thing is disassembled and brought to its permanent home where it goes together scarily fast.
Regarding to how they’ll deal with the whole Gigapress issue, I’d be willing to bet they stamp the bodies in Texas and ship them to Fremont. That’s what we do where I work. It’s perfectly common for a single assembly line to exist in half a dozen locations while doing pilot builds before finally being combined in one spot.
 

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I wonder... with Ford making 1 Million+ F150's in a given year, how much bigger is their factory? That number seems astounding, especially given that it is built in the more traditional car manufacturing process that Tesla is claiming to be so inefficient both in time and cost?

Genuine question, if the CT is so much more efficient in its production process, what would be keeping them from hitting those types of numbers? aside from battery availability...
 

OCS12

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I wonder... with Ford making 1 Million+ F150's in a given year, how much bigger is their factory? That number seems astounding, especially given that it is built in the more traditional car manufacturing process that Tesla is claiming to be so inefficient both in time and cost?

Genuine question, if the CT is so much more efficient in its production process, what would be keeping them from hitting those types of numbers? aside from battery availability...
Efficiency only fixes so much. There’s simply no way around the fact that some processes are slow. That can be worked around, but it adds to production costs. You mention “traditional car building” as a bad thing. Those guys have it dialed in. Tesla doesn’t. There’s a reason Tesla recruiters keep targeting folks like me. There’s an optimal human/robot mix. The unions love the human side, Elon loves the robot side, but the reality is somewhere in the middle. Tesla is learning, but the big kids have it down to a science.
 

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