Elon Says Final Cybertruck Design is Now Locked! Updated Production Timeline = Mid-2023

[TyPope]

I do think ya'll are still missing the pack weight factor. Using the Model S 85kWh/1200lb pack weight as proxy, the pack alone on a 400 mi CT is going to weigh ~2800 lbs. A steel body is already gonna be heavy too.

Lets do more sloppy math - F-150 Lightning has a curb weight of 6100 lbs with a pack size of 98kWh. Add 102kWh more worth of weight and I think we're looking at a curb weight on the CT north of 7,500lbs. Even with magic Tesla motors, I'm not 100% we can get 2mi/kWh out of a vehicle that heavy. And I bet the body of the CT is gonna be heavier than the Lightning.

Elon said that with the exo-skeleton and no traditional frame, the CT would weigh around 5,000. While I think that's a stretch, he also said it wouldn't weigh as much as the F150.

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

I do think ya'll are still missing the pack weight factor. Using the Model S 85kWh/1200lb pack weight as proxy, the pack alone on a 400 mi CT is going to weigh ~2800 lbs. A steel body is already gonna be heavy too.

Lets do more sloppy math - F-150 Lightning has a curb weight of 6100 lbs with a pack size of 98kWh. Add 102kWh more worth of weight and I think we're looking at a curb weight on the CT north of 7,500lbs. Even with magic Tesla motors, I'm not 100% we can get 2mi/kWh out of a vehicle that heavy. And I bet the body of the CT is gonna be heavier than the Lightning.

Don’t need math. Musk said Cybertruck is the same weight as the competition which is an F150. Find the weight of the heaviest F150 and you have your weight cap.

 

[firsttruck]

Elon said that with the exo-skeleton and no traditional frame, the CT would weigh around 5,000. While I think that's a stretch, he also said it wouldn't weigh as much as the F150 Lightning.

Elon said more than that. At Cybertruck reveal in Nov 2019, Elon said Cybertruck would not cheat in size. He said Cybertruck 4-door (seating for 6) with 6.5ft bed would have the same dimensions (length, width) & WEIGHT as the most popular truck in the world, F-150 Supercrew Cab 4-door with 5.5ft bed.

Each battery size & motor combination will result in different total weight.

I am assuming Elon meant the base single motor Cybertruck would weigh no more than
F-150 Supercrew Cab 4-door with 5.5ft bed.

---------------------------

Tesla Cybertruck Unveiling Event: Watch the $39,900 Bulletproof Truck's Full Reveal Presentation
Nov 21, 2019

-----




---------------------------

 

[Throwcomputer]

10,000 large batteries at low production rates may require less overall battery resources than 20,000 CT2 at high production rates in a given period.

I think Regenshire and Gnarlydude came to the right conclusion. Tesla is agile and will figure it out.

this implies they produce full demand for the CT2 regardless of the battery cell supply. Most likely they make the max available units for the supply of batteries regardless of which model they produce. So would you prefer to make more per unit with less units out the door, or make more total sum of all units with more butts in seats at slightly less per unit? Probably a combination of both.

Can't wait for the endless hypothesizing on every single detail to end.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Don’t need math. Musk said Cybertruck is the same weight as the competition which is an F150. Find the weight of the heaviest F150 and you have your weight cap.

2022 Ford F-150 Lightning/Curb weight
6,015 lbs

 

[Coolbreeze704]

this implies they produce full demand for the CT2 regardless of the battery cell supply. Most likely they make the max available units for the supply of batteries regardless of which model they produce. So would you prefer to make more per unit with less units out the door, or make more total sum of all units with more butts in seats at slightly less per unit? Probably a combination of both.

Can't wait for the endless hypothesizing on every single detail to end.

More units means more add ons and high margin options like FSD, Enhanced Autopilot, Premium Connectivity etc

 

[Throwcomputer]

Exactly. Tesla is wasting their time in the truck market if they do not completely embarrass the competition in terms of pricing and performance. We all know their performance is better, but they need the pricing embarrassment as well otherwise truck buyers won't give a crap about a strange looking sci fi truck that looks like an even weirder version of existing trucks in the market they crap on and won't even consider (ie. Ridgeline, Tacoma, anything not named Ford, GMC or Dodge).

The only way to break a Ford/GMC/Dodge truck buyer away from their fanboy brand is to force them to with performance AND price.

When they start to realize their options are limited to EV only, and their fanboy brand is at least 2x the price for half the performance.. they will start reconsidering their crappy opinions.

The only people chomping at the bit to buy a cybertruck are members of this website, or reservation holders. We know for sure there are at minimum 15,900 members of this website (of various commitment to the CT) and at maximum 1.5-2million reservations of which a sizeable number are duplicate reservations. So yeah they can't exist in the truck market with 2 million max one time every 10-20 year purchasers. They need a constant flow of purchasers over time something in the order of 10-15 million interested parties that can each cash into the purchase every 5-15 years.

The Tesla model of high end luxury vehicle brand (and resulting pricing) only works in the sedan/suv market. Because there are quite a few more high end luxury sedan and SUV purchasers in the world to go around. And those people are both, more inclined to try an EV vehicle because they are more into cutting edge technology vehicles, and also less entrenched in a fanboy brand mentality than a truck owner/buyer.

 

[Tinker71]

Tesla could feel good about itself if it blew the industry out of the water, but what I have seen so far, is restraint, with a focus on maximising profit whilst maintaining momentum across its range.

I'm not sure which way it will go. End of the day, it has a ramp to contend with. Will it dress to kill, but remain unable to capitalise, or will it seek to maximise its profits and slowly choke the competition.

Profit and margin support the mission statement of transition to electrification. Since Tesla is a ways away from issuing dividends, the profit supports the next generation products at scale. Which ultimately supports the mission. Tesla needs to maximize profits.

 

[madquadbiker]

The next time I get excited about the CT will be when I get THAT email! At my age-77- the clock is working against me.

I feel your pain.

 

[firsttruck]

2022 Ford F-150 Lightning/Curb weight
6,015 lbs

Elon was comparing to ICE F-150 not EV. In 2019 when Elon made the promise for weight of Cybertruck, the 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning was not even announced no less exist. The 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning is much heavier than the ICE model F-150.

 

[TyPope]

This would also line up with the history of the Model 3 program. They first launched with the mid-tier long range RWD vehicles for nearly 3/4 of a year before they expanded to Performance vehicles. The mid-range vehicles used less motors and less battery, which reduces constraints from those parts, and it gave them additional time to work on the performance motors and Software they needed for the performance models while ramping up the production lines.

The Model Y came out with Performance first, but the Model Y is on the same platform as the mature Model 3 program so they could just start generating the most expensive models since they already had the battery and motors being produced in volume, and it was just using the same software.

The Cybertruck is a new platform, so I do think it is likely they would start with the middle trim that uses less batteries and less motors until the software for performance is ready, they have worked out most of the bugs in the line, and they have enough bandwidth to support the larger batteries and higher number of motors being produced for the 4 motor design.

Tesla will NOT take a chance of bringing out a truck that isn't the absolute best in every category. They'll make the top of the line version first. They may quickly transition to something lower but they'll make sure that the best Tesla beats the best Ford, the best Chevy, the best GM, etc...

 

[TyPope]

More cars per cell equals more first impressions.

-Crissa

Putting out the absolute best truck in the field is of utmost importance. Tesla needs to show continued leadership. They'll pop out more than a few top of the line CTs before dropping back to make the more battery-efficient versions (the ones with lower range). Watch.

 

[TyPope]

The only people chomping at the bit to buy a cybertruck are members of this website, or reservation holders. We know for sure there are at minimum 15,900 members of this website (of various commitment to the CT) and at maximum 1.5-2million reservations of which a sizeable number are duplicate reservations. So yeah they can't exist in the truck market with 2 million max one time every 10-20 year purchasers. They need a constant flow of purchasers over time something in the order of 10-15 million interested parties that can each cash into the purchase every 5-15 years.

10 million purchasers buying 2 million vehicles every 5th year would, in fact, be 2 million sales per year which is approximately 8 times Elon's stated goal production for Texas (250,000 per year). IF Tesla only plans on building 250,000 a year like he said (I think they'll produce many more eventually), Tesla would need only 1.25 million fans to buy a new CT every 5 years... Or they could have 2.5 tepid fans that buy one new CT every 10 years which would also max out production. I may be in the minority but I don't keep vehicles that long.

What Tesla will NOT be doing is producing 2 million CTs a year out of Tesla unless Elon gets 8 times the production than he was planning.

It would be something seeing Texas poop out one Cybertruck every 3.15 seconds to be able to make 10,000,000 per year (okay, that's 365 days and I am reserving the 1/4 day and a little bit for maintenance... but that's all the down time they get!)

Fun and useless math is right up my alley.

 

[Crissa]

2022 Ford F-150 Lightning/Curb weight
6,015 lbs

Which one is that?

-Crissa

Sponsored