Elon Says Final Cybertruck Design is Now Locked! Updated Production Timeline = Mid-2023

[Jhodgesatmb]

Probably a good time to mention that production starting does not equal deliveries beginning. Deliveries will lag months behind the beginning of production. Most of us have been hoping for deliveries by the end of 2023, which should be doable if production really does start mid-2023.

Although I agree my place in line for the ti-motor trim was 80,000. If they started production early in 2023 I might have gotten mine in 2023 if they really hit a 150K pace during the year. With this news I have to consider pushing my hopes back further.

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[Crissa]

That said, at the TED talk in April he said volume production in 2023 and in this one he said start of production in Q2 2023. Those statements are contradictory and the more recent is another delay so that is depressing.

What's the contradiction?

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I have a feeling all stated ranges from the reveal will be exceeded. Dual motor was 300 at that time I believe. I bet it will be closer to 400 then 300.

They put ‘+’ signs on all the ranges so that is at least hopeful. Rather than more range if they said they could get that range with half-to-full cargo I’d be jazzed.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

What's the contradiction?

-Crissa

You cannot start production in Q2 and hit volume production rates in 2 quarters. They have never done it before. I know that the CT should be much simpler to fabricate but it is also a brand new platform/architecture. You don’t think they are contradictory?

 

[intimidator]

I have a feeling all stated ranges from the reveal will be exceeded. Dual motor was 300 at that time I believe. I bet it will be closer to 400 then 300.

The Rivian and the Lightning both have about 310-320 miles of range.

With a bunch of YouTubers testing the range, and efficiency (loaded, unloaded, towing, etc) of those two trucks, we have a good feel that aero drag coefficient is very important-in addition to the size of the battery.

So, we have to wait and see what size battery they put in the first production run of Cybertrucks.
We know 135 KwH for the Rivian and 131 KwH for the Lightning.

The Tesla Model S long range has a 100 KwH battery.

If the Cybertruck has a battery of 130-135 Kwh, will it have a range of 400 miles because of the wedge shape? We will have to see.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The "good" news, at least for me, is that I've been saving money from every pay check, so by the time this actually does get released, I'll have it fully funded. One thing I hope that happens from all the delays is that enough people in front of my "week after announcement" reservation drop out so I move up in the line a little bit. Also hope that a tri-motor FSD reservation gets built first, as many have predicted.

Maybe that Silverado guy will be one of them, and the fit and finish complainer

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The way traditional truck culture has been hating on the CT, I doubt any competitors have the backbone to copy the CT design. And 1 year is seriously too short to line up the necessary elements to even begin to copy the design (gigapress, a supply of SS, folding machines for SS, and the special glass...).

But hey, we'll see if a few years after the CT is out and proven to be popular if any competitors decide to copy it. Well, first we will need to see if any competitors are still in business at that point. Short of the Chinese auto manufacturers, I have a hard time seeing who else will still be around.

If they cannot build a BEV that doesn’t break down and they still lose money on them then they might not still be around. Right now there a lots of people that would like a BEV but want to buy a cheaper one than a Tesla. Sadly, those that do are confronted with a host of issues and there is mixed satisfaction. The industry ‘needs’ people to be satisfied to gain rapid adoption, so we need the Fords, GMs, etc. to stop messing around.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Could be.

Although at one time Tesla/Elon said they were going to produce the Quad motors first (and hinted that there were no longer be a Tri-Motor version).

They could change of course. After waiting all this time, I am going to wait for a version that has at least 400 miles of range. I would prefer the original projected range of 500 miles for the Tri-Motor though.

I do not recall that hint. Do you recall where it came from? I do remember him saying the quad would come first.

 

[Gvardaman]

It’s all good.
If someone gets the F-150 Lightning or an EV Silverado, great!
I hope it suits their needs AND it‘s electric, non-polluting and a huge step forward. These will hopefully be around, so for those grabbing another type, they can still get a Cybertruck later or vice-Versa.

There are also people who put in multiple reservations that will undoubtedly get dropped as these become available and people change their orders to get four-wheel drive and steering, etc.
the IDRA press is built, the factory is built, they are producing the 4680 batterit’s, I feel like this is all good progress towards starting production. The economy, chip delays and many other factors can affect this and the Model Y was ahead of schedule, as I recall, so they certainly try to under promise and,over deliver, maybe we’ll get surprisef!

 

[Bkent100]

What's the contradiction?

-Crissa

Simple Carissa…”start” means to begin, “volume” means moderate to high production numbers. You musk lovers amaze me sometimes….

 

[intimidator]

I do not recall that hint. Do you recall where it came from? I do remember him saying the quad would come first.

December 2021. TorqueNews.com

"....Tesla recently announced that it would be starting with the dual and quad motor versions of the Cybertruck. Tesla has scrapped the single motor Cybertruck for now. That leaves us with dual, tri, and quad motor options and it looks like the tri motor is not going to be available until possibly a later date...."

I didn't search twitter, but I think Elon did tweet about it.

 

[dtruckman]

The Y shipped early.

Not so original delivery on the Y which I ordered February was delayed from December this year now its March to June 2023. That's not early for me!

 

[Crissa]

You cannot start production in Q2 and hit volume production rates in 2 quarters. They have never done it before. I know that the CT should be much simpler to fabricate but it is also a brand new platform/architecture. You don’t think they are contradictory?

Why? In what was hasn't Tesla done this?

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

If they cannot build a BEV that doesn’t break down and they still lose money on them then they might not still be around. Right now there a lots of people that would like a BEV but want to buy a cheaper one than a Tesla. Sadly, those that do are confronted with a host of issues and there is mixed satisfaction. The industry ‘needs’ people to be satisfied to gain rapid adoption, so we need the Fords, GMs, etc. to stop messing around.

Right now, there is very little 'need' for people (consumers) to change anything. As it is BEV's can't get produced fast enough. The existing demand and consumption for BEV's is already far ahead of the BEV production lineup. And it looks like this will continue to be the case for a long while.

Now I will agree that it would help if the Fords, GMs, etc would stop messing around. But the problem there isn't really so much about creating better or cheaper vehicles. What is really needed at the moment is for more companies to get ahead of the projection curves and start pressuring industry to produce more raw materials. Already there is a severe battery shortage and it will just continue to get worse if the raw materials cannot be had. The more pressure on industry and governments to solve the materials issues the better.

If the materials issues get solved, then the next big issue for non-Tesla vehicles will be charging infrastructure. If that doesn't get solved, then the consumer satisfaction issue you mention is not going to be high enough for non-Tesla vehicles to be demanded at a high enough rate to make them profitable.

Once those issues are solved, then the quality and price will start to come into scope. And even if the Fords, GMs, etc don't solve these issues, other companies (Hello, China) will. At some point there will be a lot of relatively affordable BEVs available. For those on the lower wealth scale, it won't be right away. And I wish it could be sooner than it will be. But those days will come.

 

[Crissa]

Not so original delivery on the Y which I ordered February was delayed from December this year now its March to June 2023. That's not early for me!

....What does your order two years after the first deliveries of the Model Y have to do with a delay in production?

-Crissa

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