Will pay cash but still opportunity cost vs more Tesla stock, 5% interest in savings, etc....regardless it's ordered so ship has sailed!
1-Mar-2024Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations were ever being sent out in a linear fashion?
Because this is what I see (from Invites tracker thread):
Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.
Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 invitees submit in thread above) and we get:
(as of 2/14)
Meanwhile, ~33-unit daily production rate also seems to match what 66 days seems to have produced so far, roughly 2200 units. So hopefully yesterday's 70 was an attempt at a double.
The elephant in the room with that statement is that Troy is just guessing like the rest of us. His guess could be wildly wrong.
He has a very limited track record of early production ramps (beyond following the weekly deliveries and adjusting his numbers to suit what is actually happening on the ground). And zero track record predicting the ramp speed of a vehicle as hard to predict as the Cybertruck (due to the fact that it uses so many non-traditional materials and production techniques).But he has a bit of reputation of not being wildly wrong
A guy in my office got a FS invite three days ago - 2/28.Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations were ever being sent out in a linear fashion?
Because this is what I see (from Invites tracker thread):
Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.
Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 invitees submit in thread above) and we get:
(as of 2/14)
Meanwhile, ~33-unit daily production rate also seems to match what 66 days seems to have produced so far, roughly 2200 units. So hopefully yesterday's 70 was an attempt at a double.
Yes, I still have the opportunity to confide FS….and I got the invite over a month ago…
Yet ANOTHER large round of invites going out yesterday and today, looks like, as we said earlier, they are just getting started on FS orders.Does anyone have any evidence FS invitations were ever being sent out in a linear fashion?
Because this is what I see (from Invites tracker thread):
Seems like one wave, 12/8-9, with each subsequent mini-wave (or promotion) merely filling out nonstarters from the previous.
Multiply by 13 (only 1 in 13 invitees submit in thread above) and we get:
(as of 2/14)
Meanwhile, ~33-unit daily production rate also seems to match what 66 days seems to have produced so far, roughly 2200 units. So hopefully yesterday's 70 was an attempt at a double.
If you recall, he had to update his estimates frequently, sometimes as often as within a week, when new information came to light. At the start of production, in the middle of 2017, he did not accurately predict 2018 production numbers, he kept updating his estimate to reflect new observations as the ramp progressed.
LOL. No I'm not claiming he can see the future - because given all the uncertainties that is what you need to be able to do to predict accurately. He has the track record of analyzing available fuzzy data and coming up with reasonable estimates. Since his estimates are data dependent they change as more data is available.
To be absolutely clear, you did imply Troy can see the future accurately when you wrote this:
That is an if/then statement of logic, and it implies Troy can see the future. And you followed that up citing your belief in the accuracy of his previous predictions.
