Keeping Expectation Grounded

[Tiberius]

I am moderately comforted with EMs tweet after Ford dropped the price of the Lightning. He said they were still “kinda expensive”.
Not sure I‘m expecting the same price as reserved, but don't think it will be the 20-30% increase.
Will be disappointed if there is no Hepa filter in there though.
It looks like I’m up in the 90-100k reservation range, so I’ve got time to find out.

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[WheezyLex]

So why the income caps to qualify for the tax credit? Did rich people put that in place, because they felt guilty from all the money they’re stealing from the poor?

Lawmakers figured that US taxpayers who make more than $225,000 (for “head of household”), $300,000 (for married “filing jointly”), or $150,000 per year (for all others), can probably afford an EV without needing assistance from the government. (I looked it up).

…Same holds true for SUVs, the modern station wagon. Those things are freakin everywhere. Every house has one, maybe two in the US.

Not every house, but yeah I guess I’d say you’re right and they are “freakin everywhere” as you say.

 

[RVAC]

It depends on the intent of the credit. There are a ton of trucks on the road. And if you want to get ICE trucks off the road and reduce the amount of gas we use, then raising the limit for trucks makes sense. Same holds true for SUVs, the modern station wagon. Those things are freakin everywhere. Every house has one, maybe two in the US. So if you want to ge them off the road, you raise the price limit for the credit and make the conversion to BEV more desirable for people.

Makes sense to me.

What doesn't make sense is having two different caps, it should be one single cap at $80k. By restricting anything other than trucks/SUV's to $50k you are effectively disincentivizing the purchase of more efficient vehicles.

 

[CyberGus]

With respect to electric vehicles, I’m always grounded

 

[Crissa]

because most people who qualified for the tax credit could not amass a tax deficit large enough to get the whole $7,500 off. It was basically a total scam that just benefited the rich who can manipulate their incomes and make it look like they don’t make any money at all. This is how they dodge taxes as well.

This is not true. The vast majority of new vehicles are purchased by people who have that much tax liability. They're not rich. Higher than average, sure, but the average person doesn't buy a new car.

-Crissa

 

[WheezyLex]

What doesn't make sense is having two different caps, it should be one single cap at $80k. By restricting anything other than trucks/SUV's to $50k you are effectively disincentivizing the purchase of more efficient vehicles.

Agreed!

 

[WheezyLex]

Tesla doesn’t currently have a 500+ mile vehicle. The 4680 battery’s energy density didn’t increase as rapidly as expected. It’s getting there, but slowly. I think something in the 400s would be possible, but depending on demand they may want to just churn out as many CTs as possible. Charging speed is an equally important factor, as is how much range is lost when hauling and towing.

I’m hoping for 400+ range on the upper model, 350+ on the mid-range (because I I’m getting the mid range), mostly because I want to towmy camper trailer and get as much range out of it as possible. We’ll have to wait and see!

—Lex

 

[CYBRSMTH]

This is not true. The vast majority of new vehicles are purchased by people who have that much tax liability. They're not rich. Higher than average, sure, but the average person doesn't buy a new car.

-Crissa

I’ve watched countless EV YouTube videos and many of the hosts tried to maximize the money they got back from the government only to realize that they couldn’t get the full $7,500 back (Tesla Time News, Ryan Shaw Tech, etc.) Plus they had to buy the vehicle at full price and wait until tax time only to realize they weren’t going to get the full amount back. You can only claim it on the year you bought the vehicle, it doesn’t roll over, and you get what you get, which I think is deceptive.

I even looked into it myself as I considered selling stock to create a deficit. I would have to have made over $40,000 in gains from $10,000 in investments just to get close to $7,500. Maybe people with businesses could create that kind of deficit, but not your average person.

Next year the tax credit turns into a point-of-sale rebate. That’s when EV sales will really take off. You get the money off the top and the dealer gets to claim the credit, which they can easily do being a business. This works for leases now. I plan on buying a used EV for $25K or less next year. That’s when your average person can fully benefit from the $7,500 off for a new EV (plus the vehicle price caps and origin restrictions) or $4,000 off any used EV as long as it’s under $25,000 AND your income is under a certain amount.

As with all things involving the government it’s overcomplicated and cumbersome.

 

[wtibbit]

There is. It's called the laughing emoji!

Huh! I learn something new every day. I use that available emoji to indicate I laughed at a post. I'll keep doing that.

I'll use this for a thumbs down:

 

[John K]

This clip came to mind regarding this thread

 

[Crissa]

I’ve watched countless EV YouTube videos and...

...and YouTube isn't very profitable, and besides, is a business with lots of deductions. The average person doesn't have that.

Your example is nonsense. The average American has more than 40k in earned income.

https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2019/01/new-car-buyer-demographics-2019/

This is new cars we're talking about.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

I’ve watched countless EV YouTube videos and many of the hosts tried to maximize the money they got back from the government only to realize that they couldn’t get the full $7,500 back (Tesla Time News, Ryan Shaw Tech, etc.) Plus they had to buy the vehicle at full price and wait until tax time only to realize they weren’t going to get the full amount back. You can only claim it on the year you bought the vehicle, it doesn’t roll over, and you get what you get, which I think is deceptive.

I even looked into it myself as I considered selling stock to create a deficit. I would have to have made over $40,000 in gains from $10,000 in investments just to get close to $7,500. Maybe people with businesses could create that kind of deficit, but not your average person.

Next year the tax credit turns into a point-of-sale rebate. That’s when EV sales will really take off. You get the money off the top and the dealer gets to claim the credit, which they can easily do being a business. This works for leases now. I plan on buying a used EV for $25K or less next year. That’s when your average person can fully benefit from the $7,500 off for a new EV (plus the vehicle price caps and origin restrictions) or $4,000 off any used EV as long as it’s under $25,000 AND your income is under a certain amount.

As with all things involving the government it’s overcomplicated and cumbersome.

Financial guidance says that someone making $100k/year should finance no more than about $50k on a vehicle, which is the bottom range of the Dual-Motor CT.

In 2022, a single filer with taxable income of $100,000 will pay about $18,000 in tax, easily surpassing the $7,500 tax credit.

No "average" person pays that much in taxes, but no one anywhere should spend more than their annual salary to finance a depreciating asset.

 

[VR Driving]

So only the first 2 came true, the rest seem to all show up in the final spec!

 

[VR Driving]

- $79k starting price for the Dual Motor Variant
- lower than expected range
- FSD won't be enabled at launch, will come at a later software update
- No GPU in MCU, so the basic 3/Y system. No steam
- It might not be 4680 battery, there is the chance of using 2170 according to some rumors to accelerate the production ramp.
- No 2nd screen for the rear
- Manual rear gate
- Manual Frunk


looks like my prediction was very accurate

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