Limited CT Production

Tinker71

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The CT is too cheap. Why would you buy a long range S or a Y for $90k/$60k when you can get a $70K CT with 500 miles range? Granted some people want a car, but for pure economics Tesla is undercutting their own market.

I don't see Tesla working too hard to crank out 250,000 CT per year at current pricing unless the margin is actually higher than a S or Y. I think they will limit production to ~100,000 units per year or so or they will find a way to raise prices. Maybe the 4 wheel steering was it?

Total profits are important as well as market share, but who are they really competing against? My assumed unit # 654114 is looking sadder and sadder.
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CyberT

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The CT is too cheap. Why would you buy a long range S or a Y for $90k/$60k when you can get a $70K CT with 500 miles range? Granted some people want a car, but for pure economics Tesla is undercutting their own market.
My wife is 5'1" and is scared to drive anything larger than her Model 3. It doesn't matter what the range or bells and whistles there are on longer-range have she will never drive them. She has grown to like the look of the CT but it is just way too big for her and I would imagine millions of others feel the same. Then let's check out the millions of people out there that just absolutely hate the design of the CT (I know they are crazy) but they are out there.

The point is that Tesla is making something for everyone. People will pay a premium to have a more traditional-looking vehicle even if it doesn't have the range or tech as the CT.
 

Crissa

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Trucks don't fit everywhere cars do.
The Cybertruck will never charge as many miles per minute as the cars do.
The Cybertruck doesn't have gull wings, driving features, step in size, insurance rates of the other models.

Next, we're looking at what the Cybertruck will be priced at in a year or two. We don't know what the other models will be priced at then.

If the Cybertruck's battery pack costs less, the Model 3/Y's battery pack will cost two thirds to a half that. They will have the same gigacast reductions in their assembly cost - and in fact will have these before the Cybertruck is available on the street.

So not only is the answer 'because they're different' the answer will be 'because it won't be cheaper'.

-Crissa
 
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Ogre

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Tesla doesn't worry about cannibalizing their own products. This same argument was made when The Model 3 was launched. Tesla's stock took a hit when the Model 3 was announced because people were worried they would cannibalize sales of the more expensive Model S. While it may have hurt Model S sales, total sales and margins more than made up for it.

The Cybertruck was designed from the ground up to be less expensive to build. There is profit margin in Cybertrucks. If it eclipses the Model Y, there will still be profits for Tesla.

The Model 3 and the Model Y are fantastic cars for their own reasons and I don't think the Cybertruck is going to steal their thunder. But even if it does hurt MY and M3 sales, right now Tesla makes the two most popular EVs on the market by a huge margin. If Tesla releases a truck which is massively more popular that those two products what does that do to the rest of the market?
 
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Ogre

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One other thought here.

Maybe the plan here is the Cybertruck is the start of the whole next generation of Tesla cars. The $25k Tesla is likely to be built using the foundation Tesla lays out with the Cybertruck.

All the photos of the $25k Tesla show a slick looking hatchback that looks like it's the cousin to the Model 3. Seems to me if the Cybertruck is a success they are more likely to launch something else along these same lines. If they can make a Cybertruck for $39k, what would it cost if they make something the size of the Model Y without the massive suspension, 2 wheel steering, and modest load capacity? Just the savings in batteries alone would make a mid-sized Cybercar in the $25k range viable.
 


Diehard

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I can’t see Tesla ever limiting production of anything that is in demand. They have always tried to increase capacity and I don’t see that changing. They want to put as many EVs out there as possible. Today’s scarcity will not last. Market will overshoot and at some point Tesla production will catch up with demand and competition will have compelling cars at competitive prices. All of that will help in keeping the price as advertised. I don’t believe the biggest selling point of CT is it’s uniqueness or the fact that it is a Tesla. It’s biggest selling point is it’s value. Both Giga Texas and CT design revolve around maximizing the efficiency of production to enable high output at low cost. They could produce CT’s today at a million dollar a piece but it is delayed so it can be produced at a good value. I believe once CT is produced in high volume, Y will have 4680 in it, has caught up with demand and it’s price will drop.

Opinions are like assets, everyone has some. This is mine based on information coming directly from my personal crystal ball. Hay at least I reveal my source.
 

Sirfun

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The night of the reveal when Elon released the prices I felt the same way. Why would anyone buy even a model 3 over a $39,900 Awesome vehicle that is as useful as this Truck, with a vault.
But like Ogre said Tesla set those prices knowing they could make a profit, but not knowing the demand for the product. What's interesting to me, is that Tesla didn't stop taking reservations at those prices. I would have thought they would have seen all that demand and said, okay that's our introductory price, but we're going to have a price increase of "?" for the next 500,000 orders. Then go from there.
The other way to look at all of this, is look at what Ford has done. They knew truck sales were cannibalizing their fleet, but they were wiping out other manufacturers and kept raising prices of trucks and taking profits.
Tesla could easily do the same. Why would you want to buy an expensive SUV when a Cybertruck is so much of a better option.
 

Sirfun

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And that's not even counting autonomy. People will literally not care what it looks like if it gets them across town cheaply and they don't have to maintain it.

-Crissa
I think most of the public thought the VW bug was ugly as sin in the early days, yet look where that story went. Value can be a huge selling point!
 
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Tinker71

Tinker71

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The night of the reveal when Elon released the prices I felt the same way. Why would anyone buy even a model 3 over a $39,900 Awesome vehicle that is as useful as this Truck, with a vault.
But like Ogre said Tesla set those prices knowing they could make a profit, but not knowing the demand for the product. What's interesting to me, is that Tesla didn't stop taking reservations at those prices. I would have thought they would have seen all that demand and said, okay that's our introductory price, but we're going to have a price increase of "?" for the next 500,000 orders. Then go from there.
The other way to look at all of this, is look at what Ford has done. They knew truck sales were cannibalizing their fleet, but they were wiping out other manufacturers and kept raising prices of trucks and taking profits.
Tesla could easily do the same. Why would you want to buy an expensive SUV when a Cybertruck is so much of a better option.
I think the 4 wheel steering may be the curve ball. It is the one thing they have really improved upon that was not in the original specification. 4 wheel steering is pretty cool for tighter urban spaces. I know Elon doesn't like lots of manufacturing options but what if Tesla said they were going to make the 4 wheel steering models first for a $10k premium and then eventually (maybe 2 years down the road) make the straight steering. Who would upgrade? Who would wait? This is the same vane as the $35k M3. Tesla kept the promise eventually, but a lot of people upgraded or waited.

Sorry to be such a pessimist folks.
 


Ogre

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What's interesting to me, is that Tesla didn't stop taking reservations at those prices. I would have thought they would have seen all that demand and said, okay that's our introductory price, but we're going to have a price increase of "?" for the next 500,000 orders. Then go from there.
I see people talking about Tesla raising the prices of the Cybertruck. Often dripping with sarcasm. Recently on this forum. "Anyone who thinks the Cybertruck is going to cost less than $100-120k when it ships has a nasty surprise in store" (Paraphrase).

If Tesla was going to raise the price or limit demand, why haven't they done anything to staunch that demand or limit the number of people who are going to angry if they do raise the prices?

While the Cybertruck sells through it's pre-order list, people who want a Tesla **now** can get the Model Y or the Model 3. In 3-5 years once they have Cybertrucks available for general sales they can adapt to the new reality.
 

Sirfun

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I think the 4 wheel steering may be the curve ball. It is the one thing they have really improved upon that was not in the original specification. 4 wheel steering is pretty cool for tighter urban spaces. I know Elon doesn't like lots of manufacturing options but what if Tesla said they were going to make the 4 wheel steering models first for a $10k premium and then eventually (maybe 2 years down the road) make the straight steering. Who would upgrade? Who would wait? This is the same vane as the $35k M3. Tesla kept the promise eventually, but a lot of people upgraded or waited.

Sorry to be such a pessimist folks.
The night of the reveal, Tesla was saying the first Cybertrucks produced would be the single at $39.900. Within a day, they said Dual and Tri had more demand, and Single would be last. I thought (and still do), that was the curveball. Just like you mention, it historically would fit their M.O. just like the $35K M-3 and the standard range Model Y. I really don't know how this 4-wheel steering will play out. I do think it's highly beneficial in a vehicle of this length. I have a 20' long E-250, and it's not easy, but driving it you KNOW it's limitations. With 4 wheel steering, The Cybertruck won't FEEL nearly as long.
 

TomGriff

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I don’t believe the biggest selling point of CT is it’s uniqueness or the fact that it is a Tesla. It’s biggest selling point is it’s value.

I'm a CT reservation holder exactly because of that - value. I personally like the looks of Rivian and F150 better. Inspite of many of the negative comments here, I think they are both going to be great options. I wasn't initially going to go with CT, but when I looked at the specs and price the dual motor CT is an incredible value (provided it performs as advertised and pricing remains as is) that can seat 6. It is going to replace the mini-van since kids are older we don't need the third row that often, an occasional 6 people (when kids are back) should work just fine in the CT.
 

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One other thought here.

Maybe the plan here is the Cybertruck is the start of the whole next generation of Tesla cars. The $25k Tesla is likely to be built using the foundation Tesla lays out with the Cybertruck.

All the photos of the $25k Tesla show a slick looking hatchback that looks like it's the cousin to the Model 3. Seems to me if the Cybertruck is a success they are more likely to launch something else along these same lines. If they can make a Cybertruck for $39k, what would it cost if they make something the size of the Model Y without the massive suspension, 2 wheel steering, and modest load capacity? Just the savings in batteries alone would make a mid-sized Cybercar in the $25k range viable.
Exactly! I had this thought as well reading your last post. Nailed it.
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